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FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU14 · 20 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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2nd
4-1-0 record · 5 played
2.60 points per game
+27 goal diff · 31–4
WWDWWlast 5
92% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.7
-0.73 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:50 AM

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FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
2nd · 2.60 PPG
at
Dallas Cosmos SC NTX
8th · 1.60 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 9 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.9 for, 1.8 against · 2.40 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas Youth Blue NTXDallas Cosmos SC NTX
Position2nd8th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-02-2-1
Points per game2.601.60
Goals for / game6.22.8
Goals against / game0.82.0
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W D W WL W W D D
Biggest win11–1 vs FC Dallas Youth White NTX6–1 at Nido Dallas NTX
Worst loss—2–4 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+3.01+0.47
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.73-0.26

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 76% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:50 AM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:50 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dallas Cosmos SC NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX – Dallas Cosmos SC NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.67 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.67 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
5th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 4
Loss
2.17 PPG
6th▼ down 4 5th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

18% finish 1st
92% top 4
8% below the top 4
2.7 average finish
  1. 1st 18%
  2. 2nd 31%
  3. 3rd 28%
  4. 4th 16%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.87 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sting Brave NTX 3.00 (+0.40) 1st (2.66) 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 10th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:50 AM
Dallas Cosmos SC NTX
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.40 2.57 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
11:40 AM
Sting Brave NTX
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +30
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
25%
2–3 0.92 2.33 Upside
Sat Nov 7
07:00 PM
NTX Celtic FC NTX
13th · 2-1-2 · GD -2
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
4–1 2.71 2.38 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
01:30 PM
Nido Dallas NTX
15th · 1-0-4 · GD -18
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
7–0 2.97 2.44 Bank it
Sat Feb 20
01:30 PM
BVBIA DFW NTX
5th · 4-0-1 · GD +7
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.94 2.39 Swing game
Sun Feb 21
01:30 PM
SOLAR WHITE NTX
6th · 3-0-1 · GD +13
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–2 2.04 2.36 Swing game
Sat Feb 27
01:30 PM
Dallas Texans NTX
7th · 2-1-1 · GD +3
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–0 2.54 2.38 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
09:50 AM
Fever United FC NTX
10th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–1 2.64 2.40 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
05:10 PM
DKSC NTX
20th · 0-0-5 · GD -36
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
100%
9–0 3.00 2.44 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
11:40 AM
SOLAR RED NTX
14th · 1-1-2 · GD +0
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
4–1 2.50 2.44 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sting Brave NTX 4400 300+30 123.00 WWWW -2.33 +0.45 99% 1.6
2 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5410 314+27 132.60 WWDWW -0.73 +0.04 92% 2.7
3 SOLAR NTX 5410 202+18 132.60 DWWWW -0.12 -0.18 95% 2.6
4 Sting Royal NTX 5401 237+16 122.40 LWWWW -0.38 -0.18 63% 4.1
5 BVBIA DFW NTX 5401 114+7 122.40 WWWWL +0.25 -0.40 40% 4.7
6 SOLAR WHITE NTX 4301 185+13 92.25 WWLW -2.10 +0.59 10% 6.7
7 Dallas Texans NTX 4211 63+3 71.75 WLWD -1.74 +0.23 0% 9.8
8 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 5221 1410+4 81.60 DDWWL -0.26 +0.09 1% 8.5
9 DKSC WHITE NTX 5221 1111+0 81.60 DDWLW -1.33 +0.30 0% 11.3
10 Fever United FC NTX 4202 66+0 61.50 LWWL +0.32 -0.07 0% 9.9
11 Sting Black NTX 5212 1511+4 71.40 WDLWL -0.05 +0.40 0% 9.9
12 Kernow Storm FC NTX 5212 109+1 71.40 LWLDW -1.42 +0.71 0% 13.3
13 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5212 911-2 71.40 WLLDW +0.39 +0.13 0% 11.0
14 SOLAR RED NTX 4112 1010+0 41.00 WLLD +0.70 +0.00 0% 10.2
15 Nido Dallas NTX 5104 422-18 30.60 LLWLL +0.76 -0.34 0% 16.6
16 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5023 414-10 20.40 LLDDL +1.77 -0.50 0% 15.2
17 SOLAR BLUE NTX 4013 315-12 10.25 LDLL +1.51 -0.32 0% 16.0
18 Dallas Texans Red NTX 5014 322-19 10.20 DLLLL +0.86 +0.06 0% 18.2
19 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5014 430-26 10.20 LLLDL +1.38 -0.33 0% 18.1
20 DKSC NTX 5005 036-36 00.00 LLLLL +1.17 -0.11 0% 19.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.