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FC Dallas Youth Red NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU14 · 20 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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16th
0-2-3 record · 5 played
0.40 points per game
-10 goal diff · 4–14
LLDDLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 15.2
+1.77 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:20 PM

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FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
16th · 0.40 PPG
at
Nido Dallas NTX
15th · 0.60 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 10 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.6 against · 1.72 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas Youth Red NTXNido Dallas NTX
Position16th15th
Record (W-D-L)0-2-31-0-4
Points per game0.400.60
Goals for / game0.80.8
Goals against / game2.84.4
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless23
Form (recent first)L D D L LL L W L L
Biggest win—3–1 at SOLAR WHITE NTX
Worst loss0–6 vs Sting Brave NTX0–11 vs SOLAR NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.90-2.08
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.77+0.76

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Nido Dallas NTX average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.4); blanked in 3 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Nido Dallas NTX concede 4.4/game; worst result 0–11 vs SOLAR NTX.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–6 vs Sting Brave NTX, 0–3 vs Sting Royal NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 50% / draw 21% / loss 29%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:20 PM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Nido Dallas NTX sit 15th on 0.60 PPG; we are on 0.40.

    A point moves us above Nido Dallas NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Nido Dallas NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth Red NTX – Nido Dallas NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 0.83 PPG
15th▲ up 1 15th▲ up 1 15th▲ up 1
Win
0.83 PPG
15th▲ up 1 15th▲ up 1 15th▲ up 1
Draw
0.50 PPG
16th— holds 17th▼ down 1 19th▼ down 3
Loss
0.33 PPG
16th— holds 17th▼ down 1 20th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 14th if every rival drops points, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
15.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 8%
  14. 14th 14%
  15. 15th 27%
  16. 16th 23%
  17. 17th 12%
  18. 18th 6%
  19. 19th 2%
  20. 20th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sting Brave NTX 3.00 (+2.60) 1st (2.66) 43 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 2.60 (+2.20) 3rd (2.44) 37 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 SOLAR NTX 2.60 (+2.20) 2nd (2.47) 37 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Sting Royal NTX 2.40 (+2.00) 4th (2.21) 34 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 BVBIA DFW NTX 2.40 (+2.00) 5th (2.13) 34 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
6 SOLAR WHITE NTX 2.25 (+1.85) 6th (1.82) 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7 Dallas Texans NTX 1.75 (+1.35) 8th (1.48) 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
8 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 1.60 (+1.20) 7th (1.60) 22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
9 DKSC WHITE NTX 1.60 (+1.20) 13th (1.33) 22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
10 Fever United FC NTX 1.50 (+1.10) 9th (1.47) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
11 Sting Black NTX 1.40 (+1.00) 10th (1.44) 19 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
12 Kernow Storm FC NTX 1.40 (+1.00) 14th (1.13) 19 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
13 NTX Celtic FC NTX 1.40 (+1.00) 12th (1.36) 19 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
14 SOLAR RED NTX 1.00 (+0.60) 11th (1.43) 13 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
15 Nido Dallas NTX 0.60 (+0.20) 17th (0.71) A point next game

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.50 · 20th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
03:20 PM
Nido Dallas NTX
15th · 1-0-4 · GD -18
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.72 0.62 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
03:20 PM
FC Dallas Youth White NTX
19th · 0-1-4 · GD -26
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.93 0.81 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM
SOLAR NTX
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +18
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–3 0.27 0.74 Upside
Sat Feb 6
09:50 AM
Dallas Cosmos SC NTX
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.59 0.72 Upside
Sat Feb 20
09:50 AM
SOLAR RED NTX
14th · 1-1-2 · GD +0
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.66 0.72 Upside
Sun Feb 21
08:00 AM
SOLAR BLUE NTX
17th · 0-1-3 · GD -12
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.41 0.78 Upside
Sat Feb 27
09:50 AM
Dallas Texans Red NTX
18th · 0-1-4 · GD -19
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.07 0.89 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
01:30 PM
Kernow Storm FC NTX
12th · 2-1-2 · GD +1
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.14 0.91 Upside
Sat Apr 3
08:00 AM
DKSC WHITE NTX
9th · 2-2-1 · GD +0
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.17 0.92 Upside
Sat Apr 10
01:30 PM
BVBIA DFW NTX
5th · 4-0-1 · GD +7
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–2 0.46 0.89 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sting Brave NTX 4400 300+30 123.00 WWWW -2.33 +0.45 99% 1.6
2 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5410 314+27 132.60 WWDWW -0.73 +0.04 92% 2.7
3 SOLAR NTX 5410 202+18 132.60 DWWWW -0.12 -0.18 95% 2.6
4 Sting Royal NTX 5401 237+16 122.40 LWWWW -0.38 -0.18 63% 4.1
5 BVBIA DFW NTX 5401 114+7 122.40 WWWWL +0.25 -0.40 40% 4.7
6 SOLAR WHITE NTX 4301 185+13 92.25 WWLW -2.10 +0.59 10% 6.7
7 Dallas Texans NTX 4211 63+3 71.75 WLWD -1.74 +0.23 0% 9.8
8 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 5221 1410+4 81.60 DDWWL -0.26 +0.09 1% 8.5
9 DKSC WHITE NTX 5221 1111+0 81.60 DDWLW -1.33 +0.30 0% 11.3
10 Fever United FC NTX 4202 66+0 61.50 LWWL +0.32 -0.07 0% 9.9
11 Sting Black NTX 5212 1511+4 71.40 WDLWL -0.05 +0.40 0% 9.9
12 Kernow Storm FC NTX 5212 109+1 71.40 LWLDW -1.42 +0.71 0% 13.3
13 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5212 911-2 71.40 WLLDW +0.39 +0.13 0% 11.0
14 SOLAR RED NTX 4112 1010+0 41.00 WLLD +0.70 +0.00 0% 10.2
15 Nido Dallas NTX 5104 422-18 30.60 LLWLL +0.76 -0.34 0% 16.6
16 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5023 414-10 20.40 LLDDL +1.77 -0.50 0% 15.2
17 SOLAR BLUE NTX 4013 315-12 10.25 LDLL +1.51 -0.32 0% 16.0
18 Dallas Texans Red NTX 5014 322-19 10.20 DLLLL +0.86 +0.06 0% 18.2
19 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5014 430-26 10.20 LLLDL +1.38 -0.33 0% 18.1
20 DKSC NTX 5005 036-36 00.00 LLLLL +1.17 -0.11 0% 19.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.