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SOLAR NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU14 · 20 teams · Solar SC (all teams)

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3rd
4-1-0 record · 5 played
2.60 points per game
+18 goal diff · 20–2
DWWWWlast 5
94% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.6
-0.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM

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SOLAR NTX
3rd · 2.60 PPG
at
Kernow Storm FC NTX
12th · 1.40 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 17 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.0 against · 2.42 expected points)

Season so farSOLAR NTXKernow Storm FC NTX
Position3rd12th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-02-1-2
Points per game2.601.40
Goals for / game4.02.0
Goals against / game0.41.8
Clean sheets42
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W W W DW D L W L
Biggest win11–0 at Nido Dallas NTX4–0 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX
Worst loss—1–5 at SOLAR RED NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.24-0.20
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.12-1.42

Common opponents: SOLAR RED NTX — we 3–0; they 1–5. Nido Dallas NTX — we 11–0; they 3–0.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 76% chance; likely score 2–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:30 PM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX sit 2nd on 2.60 PPG; we are on 2.60.

    A point moves us above FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Kernow Storm FC NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR NTX – Kernow Storm FC NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.67 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.67 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3
Loss
2.17 PPG
6th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

19% finish 1st
94% top 4
6% below the top 4
2.6 average finish
  1. 1st 19%
  2. 2nd 32%
  3. 3rd 28%
  4. 4th 15%
  5. 5th 5%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.87 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sting Brave NTX 3.00 (+0.40) 1st (2.66) 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
2 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 2.60 (+0.00) 3rd (2.44) A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link SOLAR NTX to Kernow Storm FC NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
0 favour them
+4.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 5–1 11–0 0–3 3–0 1–0 2–2 6–1 3–2 2–0 1–0 3–1 2–1 4–4 SOLAR NTX 3rd SOLAR RED NTX 14th Nido Dallas NTX 15th NTX Celtic FC NTX 13th Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 8th BVBIA DFW NTX 5th Fever United FC NTX 10th Kernow Storm FC NTX 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.18 · 14th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:30 PM
Kernow Storm FC NTX
12th · 2-1-2 · GD +1
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
2–1 2.42 2.57 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
01:30 PM
DKSC WHITE NTX
9th · 2-2-1 · GD +0
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–0 2.65 2.58 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM
FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
16th · 0-2-3 · GD -10
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–0 2.63 2.59 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
09:50 AM
Dallas Texans Red NTX
18th · 0-1-4 · GD -19
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
4–0 2.89 2.62 Bank it
Sat Feb 20
09:50 AM
Sting Black NTX
11th · 2-1-2 · GD +4
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.24 2.58 Swing game
Sun Feb 21
01:30 PM
FC Dallas Youth White NTX
19th · 0-1-4 · GD -26
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–0 2.97 2.62 Bank it
Sat Feb 27
09:50 AM
Sting Brave NTX
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +30
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–2 1.19 2.50 Upside
Sat Mar 6
01:30 PM
SOLAR BLUE NTX
17th · 0-1-3 · GD -12
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
4–0 2.85 2.53 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
11:40 AM
Dallas Texans NTX
7th · 2-1-1 · GD +3
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–0 2.19 2.50 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
11:40 AM
Sting Royal NTX
4th · 4-0-1 · GD +16
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 1.99 2.47 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sting Brave NTX 4400 300+30 123.00 WWWW -2.33 +0.45 99% 1.6
2 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5410 314+27 132.60 WWDWW -0.73 +0.04 92% 2.7
3 SOLAR NTX 5410 202+18 132.60 DWWWW -0.12 -0.18 94% 2.6
4 Sting Royal NTX 5401 237+16 122.40 LWWWW -0.38 -0.18 63% 4.1
5 BVBIA DFW NTX 5401 114+7 122.40 WWWWL +0.25 -0.40 41% 4.8
6 SOLAR WHITE NTX 4301 185+13 92.25 WWLW -2.10 +0.59 10% 6.6
7 Dallas Texans NTX 4211 63+3 71.75 WLWD -1.74 +0.23 1% 9.8
8 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 5221 1410+4 81.60 DDWWL -0.26 +0.09 1% 8.6
9 DKSC WHITE NTX 5221 1111+0 81.60 DDWLW -1.33 +0.30 0% 11.4
10 Fever United FC NTX 4202 66+0 61.50 LWWL +0.32 -0.07 0% 10.0
11 Sting Black NTX 5212 1511+4 71.40 WDLWL -0.05 +0.40 0% 10.0
12 Kernow Storm FC NTX 5212 109+1 71.40 LWLDW -1.42 +0.71 0% 13.1
13 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5212 911-2 71.40 WLLDW +0.39 +0.13 0% 10.9
14 SOLAR RED NTX 4112 1010+0 41.00 WLLD +0.70 +0.00 0% 10.2
15 Nido Dallas NTX 5104 422-18 30.60 LLWLL +0.76 -0.34 0% 16.7
16 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5023 414-10 20.40 LLDDL +1.77 -0.50 0% 15.1
17 SOLAR BLUE NTX 4013 315-12 10.25 LDLL +1.51 -0.32 0% 15.9
18 Dallas Texans Red NTX 5014 322-19 10.20 DLLLL +0.86 +0.06 0% 18.1
19 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5014 430-26 10.20 LLLDL +1.38 -0.33 0% 18.1
20 DKSC NTX 5005 036-36 00.00 LLLLL +1.17 -0.11 0% 19.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.