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Dallas Cosmos SC NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU14 · 20 teams · Dallas Cosmos Soccer Club (all teams)

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8th
2-2-1 record · 5 played
1.60 points per game
+4 goal diff · 14–10
DDWWLlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.6
-0.26 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:50 AM

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Dallas Cosmos SC NTX
8th · 1.60 PPG
vs

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 9 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.8 for, 3.9 against · 0.49 expected points)

Season so farDallas Cosmos SC NTXFC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
Position8th2nd
Record (W-D-L)2-2-14-1-0
Points per game1.602.60
Goals for / game2.86.2
Goals against / game2.00.8
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L W W D DW W D W W
Biggest win6–1 at Nido Dallas NTX11–1 vs FC Dallas Youth White NTX
Worst loss2–4 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.47+3.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.26-0.73

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX score 6.2/game — well above the league's 2.4.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX concede only 0.8/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 12%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:50 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Dallas Texans NTX sit 7th on 1.75 PPG; we are on 1.60.

    A point moves us above Dallas Texans NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Dallas Cosmos SC NTX – FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.33 PPG
13th▼ down 5 11th▼ down 3 14th▼ down 6
Win
1.83 PPG
7th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 2 7th▲ up 1
Draw
1.50 PPG
9th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 5
Loss
1.33 PPG
13th▼ down 5 11th▼ down 3 14th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
8.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 20%
  8. 8th 18%
  9. 9th 14%
  10. 10th 11%
  11. 11th 8%
  12. 12th 5%
  13. 13th 4%
  14. 14th 2%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sting Brave NTX 3.00 (+1.40) 1st (2.66) 37 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 2.60 (+1.00) 3rd (2.44) 31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 SOLAR NTX 2.60 (+1.00) 2nd (2.47) 31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
4 Sting Royal NTX 2.40 (+0.80) 4th (2.21) 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 BVBIA DFW NTX 2.40 (+0.80) 5th (2.13) 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
6 SOLAR WHITE NTX 2.25 (+0.65) 6th (1.82) 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
7 Dallas Texans NTX 1.75 (+0.15) 8th (1.48) A point next game

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.09 · 8th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:50 AM
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +27
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.49 1.41 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:30 PM
Dallas Texans Red NTX
18th · 0-1-4 · GD -19
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–1 2.53 1.57 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
07:00 PM
SOLAR WHITE NTX
6th · 3-0-1 · GD +13
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
23%
2–3 0.84 1.48 Upside
Sat Feb 6
09:50 AM
FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
16th · 0-2-3 · GD -10
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–1 2.26 1.57 Bank it
Sat Feb 20
09:50 AM
DKSC WHITE NTX
9th · 2-2-1 · GD +0
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.96 1.61 Swing game
Sun Feb 21
11:40 AM
SOLAR RED NTX
14th · 1-1-2 · GD +0
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–2 1.71 1.62 Swing game
Sat Feb 27
09:50 AM
Kernow Storm FC NTX
12th · 2-1-2 · GD +1
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–1 1.59 1.61 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
09:50 AM
DKSC NTX
20th · 0-0-5 · GD -36
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
5–0 2.88 1.71 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
11:40 AM
Sting Black NTX
11th · 2-1-2 · GD +4
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–2 1.57 1.70 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
11:40 AM
Sting Brave NTX
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +30
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–4 0.20 1.60 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sting Brave NTX 4400 300+30 123.00 WWWW -2.33 +0.45 99% 1.6
2 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5410 314+27 132.60 WWDWW -0.73 +0.04 93% 2.7
3 SOLAR NTX 5410 202+18 132.60 DWWWW -0.12 -0.18 94% 2.6
4 Sting Royal NTX 5401 237+16 122.40 LWWWW -0.38 -0.18 61% 4.2
5 BVBIA DFW NTX 5401 114+7 122.40 WWWWL +0.25 -0.40 41% 4.7
6 SOLAR WHITE NTX 4301 185+13 92.25 WWLW -2.10 +0.59 11% 6.6
7 Dallas Texans NTX 4211 63+3 71.75 WLWD -1.74 +0.23 0% 9.7
8 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 5221 1410+4 81.60 DDWWL -0.26 +0.09 1% 8.6
9 DKSC WHITE NTX 5221 1111+0 81.60 DDWLW -1.33 +0.30 0% 11.4
10 Fever United FC NTX 4202 66+0 61.50 LWWL +0.32 -0.07 0% 9.9
11 Sting Black NTX 5212 1511+4 71.40 WDLWL -0.05 +0.40 0% 10.0
12 Kernow Storm FC NTX 5212 109+1 71.40 LWLDW -1.42 +0.71 0% 13.2
13 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5212 911-2 71.40 WLLDW +0.39 +0.13 0% 11.0
14 SOLAR RED NTX 4112 1010+0 41.00 WLLD +0.70 +0.00 0% 10.1
15 Nido Dallas NTX 5104 422-18 30.60 LLWLL +0.76 -0.34 0% 16.6
16 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5023 414-10 20.40 LLDDL +1.77 -0.50 0% 15.1
17 SOLAR BLUE NTX 4013 315-12 10.25 LDLL +1.51 -0.32 0% 16.0
18 Dallas Texans Red NTX 5014 322-19 10.20 DLLLL +0.86 +0.06 0% 18.1
19 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5014 430-26 10.20 LLLDL +1.38 -0.33 0% 18.1
20 DKSC NTX 5005 036-36 00.00 LLLLL +1.17 -0.11 0% 19.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.