TableChase Clubs

Folsom Lake Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU17 · 25 teams · Folsom Lake Surf (all teams)

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7th
5-0-2 record · 7 played
2.14 points per game
+25 goal diff · 34–9
WLLWWlast 5
23% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.9
-0.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM

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Folsom Lake Surf
7th · 2.14 PPG
at
South Valley United Soccer Club
20th · 0.57 PPG

Neighborhood Church, Field 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.4 for, 1.7 against · 2.26 expected points)

Season so farFolsom Lake SurfSouth Valley United Soccer Club
Position7th20th
Record (W-D-L)5-0-21-1-5
Points per game2.140.57
Goals for / game4.92.3
Goals against / game1.32.0
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W L L WL L L L L
Biggest win13–0 at Santa Clara Sporting10–0 vs San Francisco Elite Academy
Worst loss1–2 vs Reno APEX Soccer Club0–3 vs San Juan South
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.28+0.03
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.25-0.01

Common opponents: San Francisco Elite Academy — we 5–0; they 10–0. Roseville SC -RL — we 2–1; they 2–4.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    South Valley United Soccer Club have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:00 PM at Neighborhood Church.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL sit 6th on 2.17 PPG; we are on 2.14.

    A point moves us above Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the South Valley United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Folsom Lake Surf – South Valley United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.25 PPG		 5th▲ up 2 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds
Win
2.25 PPG		 5th▲ up 2 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG		 9th▼ down 2 7th— holds 10th▼ down 3
Loss
1.88 PPG		 10th▼ down 3 9th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
23% top 4
77% below the top 4
5.9 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 3%
  3. 3rd 8%
  4. 4th 12%
  5. 5th 20%
  6. 6th 21%
  7. 7th 16%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th
  25. 25th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.60 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Livermore Fusion SC 3.00 (+0.86) 1st (2.88) 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Roseville SC -RL 2.57 (+0.43) 2nd (2.36) 24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 2.57 (+0.43) 4th (2.27) 24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
4 Elk Grove Soccer 2.50 (+0.36) 3rd (2.34) 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
5 Solano Surf 2.17 (+0.03) 5th (2.15) A point next game
6 Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL 2.17 (+0.03) 11th (1.51) A point next game

How the results connect

12 chains · 14 teams

Paths of results that link Folsom Lake Surf to South Valley United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
4 favour them
+2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 4–2 5–0 0–10 0–6 9–2 0–7 1–1 1–2 3–0 2–1 3–2 1–2 3–0 3–7 2–1 7–0 2–2 1–2 6–0 1–0 13–0 2–1 Folsom Lake Surf 7th Roseville SC -RL 2nd San Francisco Elite… 19th West Coast Soccer C… 18th El Camino FC Salinas 9th MUFC ENCL RL 15th Reno APEX Soccer Cl… 3rd Santa Clara Sporting 22nd Valley United Socce… 16th San Juan South 11th Burlingame SC 12th Association FC 13th Stanford Strikers 10th South Valley United… 20th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 13th 25th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.85 · 4th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
02:00 PM		 South Valley United Soccer Club
20th · 1-1-5 · GD +2		 Away far trip
Neighborhood Church		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 3–1 2.26 2.16 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
02:15 PM		 Elk Grove Soccer
4th · 5-0-1 · GD +21		 Away far trip
Hal Bartholomew Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–2 1.35 2.07 Upside
Sun Nov 8
05:45 PM		 Livermore Fusion SC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +56		 Home
Econome Family Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–4 0.46 1.91 Upside
Sun Mar 14
02:00 PM		 Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL
6th · 4-1-1 · GD +5		 Home
Econome Family Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
73%		 3–1 2.32 1.94 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
01:45 PM		 North Coast FC BLUE
24th · 0-0-5 · GD -24		 Home
Econome Family Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 5–0 2.95 2.03 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
04:30 PM		 Walnut Creek Surf
8th · 5-0-2 · GD +9		 Home
Econome Family Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 3–1 2.18 2.04 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 PM		 Solano Surf
5th · 4-1-1 · GD +22		 Away far trip
Octo Inn Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–2 1.33 1.99 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders
21st · 1-0-5 · GD -14		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 4–1 2.76 2.04 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Livermore Fusion SC 6600 560+56 183.00 WWWWW -1.90 +0.60 100% 1.1
2 Roseville SC -RL 7601 307+23 182.57 WWWWL -1.11 +0.10 77% 3.5
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7601 3211+21 182.57 WWLWW +0.58 +0.27 64% 4.0
4 Elk Grove Soccer 6501 298+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.66 +0.05 76% 3.6
5 Solano Surf 6411 308+22 132.17 WLDWW -0.68 +0.34 42% 5.1
6 Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL 6411 1510+5 132.17 WLWWW -0.53 +1.14 1% 11.8
7 Folsom Lake Surf 7502 349+25 152.14 WLLWW -0.25 +0.85 23% 5.9
8 Walnut Creek Surf 7502 2213+9 152.14 WLWWW -0.04 +1.01 4% 8.5
9 El Camino FC Salinas 7502 1913+6 152.14 WLWWL -0.04 -0.41 12% 6.9
10 Stanford Strikers 6402 1214-2 122.00 LWWWW -0.13 +0.25 1% 10.8
11 San Juan South 6303 96+3 91.50 WWWLL -0.30 +0.21 0% 11.7
12 Burlingame SC 7313 1416-2 101.43 DLWWW +0.19 -1.56 1% 9.3
13 Association FC 6222 1616+0 81.33 LDWLW -0.69 -0.27 0% 12.4
14 Cal Magic 6213 1020-10 71.17 LWDLL +0.77 -0.41 0% 15.0
15 MUFC ENCL RL 6204 1516-1 61.00 LWWLL +1.13 +0.48 0% 14.8
16 Valley United Soccer Club 6204 812-4 61.00 WLLLW -0.66 +0.24 0% 16.4
17 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 6204 1421-7 61.00 WLLWL +0.73 -0.69 0% 14.2
18 West Coast Soccer Club -RL 7124 731-24 50.71 LLDLW +0.41 -0.65 0% 19.6
19 San Francisco Elite Academy 6114 725-18 40.67 LLWDL +0.04 -0.45 0% 19.5
20 South Valley United Soccer Club 7115 1614+2 40.57 LLLLL -0.01 +0.96 0% 18.6
21 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 6105 822-14 30.50 LLLLL +0.26 -0.71 0% 19.1
22 Santa Clara Sporting 7106 443-39 30.43 LWLLL +0.41 -0.15 0% 22.6
23 Valley Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
24 North Coast FC BLUE 5005 024-24 00.00 LLLLL +1.91 -0.64 0% 22.0
25 SF United FC 6006 048-48 00.00 LLLLL +1.11 -1.49 0% 23.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.