MUFC ENCL RL
ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU17 · 25 teams · Merced United FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.3 for, 2.2 against · 1.44 expected points)
| Season so far | MUFC ENCL RL | Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 15th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-4 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / game | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Goals against / game | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W W L | W W W L W |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs El Camino FC Salinas | 4–0 at Association FC |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at Reno APEX Soccer Club | 3–5 vs Roseville SC -RL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.24 | +0.42 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.13 | -0.53 |
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 at Reno APEX Soccer Club.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 42%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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What a win does
Cal Magic sit 14th on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above Cal Magic on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (MUFC ENCL RL – Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
15th— holds | 15th— holds | 18th▼ down 3 |
| Win 1.29 PPG |
14th▲ up 1 | 15th— holds | 15th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
15th— holds | 15th— holds | 18th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 0.86 PPG |
17th▼ down 2 | 15th— holds | 19th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 14th if every rival drops points, and as low as 18th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th <1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th 1%
- 10th 2%
- 11th 5%
- 12th 8%
- 13th 12%
- 14th 15%
- 15th 15%
- 16th 17%
- 17th 11%
- 18th 7%
- 19th 4%
- 20th 2%
- 21st 1%
- 22nd <1%
- 23rd
- 24th
- 25th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.14 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Livermore Fusion SC | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.88) | 36 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Roseville SC -RL | 2.57 (+1.57) | 2nd (2.36) | 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 2.57 (+1.57) | 4th (2.27) | 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Elk Grove Soccer | 2.50 (+1.50) | 3rd (2.34) | 29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Solano Surf | 2.17 (+1.17) | 5th (2.15) | 25 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL | 2.17 (+1.17) | 11th (1.51) | 25 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 7 | Folsom Lake Surf | 2.14 (+1.14) | 6th (2.04) | 24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 8 | Walnut Creek Surf | 2.14 (+1.14) | 8th (1.83) | 24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 9 | El Camino FC Salinas | 2.14 (+1.14) | 7th (1.98) | 24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 10 | Stanford Strikers | 2.00 (+1.00) | 10th (1.61) | 22 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 11 | San Juan South | 1.50 (+0.50) | 12th (1.50) | 15 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 12 | Burlingame SC | 1.43 (+0.43) | 9th (1.73) | 15 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 13 | Association FC | 1.33 (+0.33) | 13th (1.46) | 13 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 14 | Cal Magic | 1.17 (+0.17) | 15th (1.23) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 13 teams
Paths of results that link MUFC ENCL RL to Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.48 · 6th hardest of 24
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL 6th · 4-1-1 · GD +5 |
Home Merced College |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
2–2 | 1.44 | 1.06 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
Roseville SC -RL 2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +23 |
Away far trip
Placer Valley Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.51 | 0.99 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Los Gatos United Soccer Club 17th · 2-0-4 · GD -7 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
3–2 | 1.62 | 1.06 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 10:00 AM |
South Valley United Soccer Club 20th · 1-1-5 · GD +2 |
Home Merced Regional Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–2 | 1.67 | 1.12 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 PM |
Valley United Soccer Club 16th · 2-0-4 · GD -4 |
Home Merced Regional Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.98 | 1.20 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 03:00 PM |
Santa Clara Sporting 22nd · 1-0-6 · GD -39 |
Away far trip
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–1 | 2.75 | 1.33 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Walnut Creek Surf 8th · 5-0-2 · GD +9 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
2–2 | 0.92 | 1.30 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 10:00 AM |
Livermore Fusion SC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +56 |
Home Merced Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.09 | 1.21 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Livermore Fusion SC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 0 | +56 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.90 | +0.60 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Roseville SC -RL | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 7 | +23 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWL | -1.11 | +0.10 | 77% | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 1 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs MUFC ENCL RL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 11 | +21 | 18 | 2.57 | WWLWW | +0.58 | +0.27 | 63% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Juan South · Sun Mar 14 vs Santa Clara Sporting See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Elk Grove Soccer | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 8 | +21 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWW | -0.66 | +0.05 | 76% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Cal Magic See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Solano Surf | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 8 | +22 | 13 | 2.17 | WLDWW | -0.68 | +0.34 | 44% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Roseville SC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Stanford Strikers See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 13 | 2.17 | WLWWW | -0.53 | +1.14 | 1% | 11.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at MUFC ENCL RL · Sun Nov 1 at Stanford Strikers · Sun Nov 8 at South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Folsom Lake Surf | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 9 | +25 | 15 | 2.14 | WLLWW | -0.25 | +0.85 | 23% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 8 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Walnut Creek Surf | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 13 | +9 | 15 | 2.14 | WLWWW | -0.04 | +1.01 | 4% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Association FC · Sun Mar 14 at Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Apr 4 vs Cal Magic See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | El Camino FC Salinas | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 15 | 2.14 | WLWWL | -0.04 | -0.41 | 11% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Roseville SC -RL · Sun Nov 1 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders · Sun Nov 8 at North Coast FC BLUE See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Stanford Strikers | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 12 | 2.00 | LWWWW | -0.13 | +0.25 | 0% | 10.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 1 vs Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL · Sat Nov 7 vs Solano Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | San Juan South | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 | 1.50 | WWWLL | -0.30 | +0.21 | 0% | 11.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Wed Nov 11 vs West Coast Soccer Club -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Burlingame SC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 10 | 1.43 | DLWWW | +0.19 | -1.56 | 1% | 9.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders · Sun Nov 1 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 8 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Association FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 16 | +0 | 8 | 1.33 | LDWLW | -0.69 | -0.27 | 0% | 12.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Clara Sporting See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Cal Magic | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 7 | 1.17 | LWDLL | +0.77 | -0.41 | 0% | 15.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Elk Grove Soccer See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | MUFC ENCL RL | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 6 | 1.00 | LWWLL | +1.13 | +0.48 | 0% | 14.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL · Sun Nov 8 at Roseville SC -RL · Sun Mar 14 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Valley United Soccer Club | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 | 1.00 | WLLLW | -0.66 | +0.24 | 0% | 16.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 1 at San Juan South · Sun Nov 8 vs San Francisco Elite Academy See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 6 | 1.00 | WLLWL | +0.73 | -0.69 | 0% | 14.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 1 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Burlingame SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | West Coast Soccer Club -RL | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 31 | -24 | 5 | 0.71 | LLDLW | +0.41 | -0.65 | 0% | 19.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at North Coast FC BLUE · Wed Nov 11 at San Juan South · Sun Mar 14 at Burlingame SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 4 | 0.67 | LLWDL | +0.04 | -0.45 | 0% | 19.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cal Magic · Sun Oct 25 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Association FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLLL | -0.01 | +0.96 | 0% | 18.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Cal Magic · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Alameda Soccer Club Islanders | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLLL | +0.26 | -0.71 | 0% | 19.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Burlingame SC · Sun Nov 1 at El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 8 vs SF United FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | Santa Clara Sporting | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 43 | -39 | 3 | 0.43 | LWLLL | +0.41 | -0.15 | 0% | 22.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Stanford Strikers · Sun Nov 1 vs Burlingame SC · Sun Nov 8 at Association FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Valley Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. |
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| 24 | North Coast FC BLUE | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 24 | -24 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.91 | -0.64 | 0% | 22.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast Soccer Club -RL · Sun Nov 8 vs El Camino FC Salinas See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 25 | SF United FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 48 | -48 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.11 | -1.49 | 0% | 23.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Nov 1 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.