TableChase Clubs

West Coast Soccer Club -RL

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU17 · 25 teams · West Coast Soccer (all teams)

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18th
1-2-4 record · 7 played
0.71 points per game
-24 goal diff · 7–31
LLDLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 19.6
+0.41 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 12:00 PM

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West Coast Soccer Club -RL
18th · 0.71 PPG
at
North Coast FC BLUE
24th · 0.00 PPG

Petaluma Community Sports Fields, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.7 against · 1.54 expected points)

Season so farWest Coast Soccer Club -RLNorth Coast FC BLUE
Position18th24th
Record (W-D-L)1-2-40-0-5
Points per game0.710.00
Goals for / game1.00.0
Goals against / game4.44.8
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless25
Form (recent first)W L D L LL L L L L
Biggest win1–0 vs Santa Clara Sporting—
Worst loss0–9 at Livermore Fusion SC0–10 at Livermore Fusion SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.17-2.42
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.41+1.91

Common opponents: Livermore Fusion SC — we 0–9; they 0–10. Roseville SC -RL — we 0–7; they 0–4.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    North Coast FC BLUE average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 5 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    North Coast FC BLUE concede 4.8/game; worst result 0–10 at Livermore Fusion SC.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–9 at Livermore Fusion SC, 0–7 vs Roseville SC -RL.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 44% / draw 22% / loss 34%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    North Coast FC BLUE have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at Petaluma Community Sports Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Los Gatos United Soccer Club sit 17th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.71.

    A win moves us above Los Gatos United Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the North Coast FC BLUE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West Coast Soccer Club -RL – North Coast FC BLUE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.75 PPG		 18th— holds 19th▼ down 1 21st▼ down 3
Win
1.00 PPG		 18th— holds 18th— holds 19th▼ down 1
Draw
0.75 PPG		 18th— holds 19th▼ down 1 21st▼ down 3
Loss
0.63 PPG		 19th▼ down 1 19th▼ down 1 22nd▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 18th even if every rival loses, and as low as 21st if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
19.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th 2%
  17. 17th 6%
  18. 18th 13%
  19. 19th 21%
  20. 20th 25%
  21. 21st 19%
  22. 22nd 9%
  23. 23rd 2%
  24. 24th <1%
  25. 25th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 1.86 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Livermore Fusion SC 3.00 (+2.29) 1st (2.88) 37 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Roseville SC -RL 2.57 (+1.86) 2nd (2.36) 31 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 2.57 (+1.86) 4th (2.27) 31 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Elk Grove Soccer 2.50 (+1.79) 3rd (2.34) 30 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Solano Surf 2.17 (+1.46) 5th (2.15) 26 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL 2.17 (+1.46) 11th (1.51) 26 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
7 Folsom Lake Surf 2.14 (+1.43) 6th (2.04) 25 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 Walnut Creek Surf 2.14 (+1.43) 8th (1.83) 25 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
9 El Camino FC Salinas 2.14 (+1.43) 7th (1.98) 25 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
10 Stanford Strikers 2.00 (+1.29) 10th (1.61) 23 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
11 San Juan South 1.50 (+0.79) 12th (1.50) 16 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
12 Burlingame SC 1.43 (+0.72) 9th (1.73) 16 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
13 Association FC 1.33 (+0.62) 13th (1.46) 14 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
14 Cal Magic 1.17 (+0.46) 15th (1.23) 12 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
15 MUFC ENCL RL 1.00 (+0.29) 16th (1.21) Win next game
16 Valley United Soccer Club 1.00 (+0.29) 17th (1.07) Win next game
17 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 1.00 (+0.29) 14th (1.30) Win next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link West Coast Soccer Club -RL to North Coast FC BLUE through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
4 favour them
-0.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–9 10–0 0–7 4–0 2–9 2–1 1–1 0–6 1–1 2–1 1–0 3–5 2–4 0–5 1–0 0–15 West Coast Soccer C… 18th Livermore Fusion SC 1st Roseville SC -RL 2nd Folsom Lake Surf 7th San Francisco Elite… 19th Santa Cruz United F… 6th Los Gatos United So… 17th Santa Clara Sporting 22nd Burlingame SC 12th North Coast FC BLUE 24th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 13th 25th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.65 · 20th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM		 North Coast FC BLUE
24th · 0-0-5 · GD -24		 Away far trip
Petaluma Community Sports Fields		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 1–1 1.54 0.82 Swing game
Wed Nov 11
07:00 PM		 San Juan South
11th · 3-0-3 · GD +3		 Away far trip
St. Mary's High School		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–2 0.38 0.77 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Burlingame SC
12th · 3-1-3 · GD -2		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.40 0.73 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Elk Grove Soccer
4th · 5-0-1 · GD +21		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.11 0.67 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Association FC
13th · 2-2-2 · GD +0		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–3 0.60 0.67 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 El Camino FC Salinas
9th · 5-0-2 · GD +6		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–4 0.26 0.64 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 SF United FC
25th · 0-0-6 · GD -48		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 3–1 2.49 0.77 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Livermore Fusion SC 6600 560+56 183.00 WWWWW -1.90 +0.60 100% 1.1
2 Roseville SC -RL 7601 307+23 182.57 WWWWL -1.11 +0.10 76% 3.5
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7601 3211+21 182.57 WWLWW +0.58 +0.27 62% 4.1
4 Elk Grove Soccer 6501 298+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.66 +0.05 77% 3.5
5 Solano Surf 6411 308+22 132.17 WLDWW -0.68 +0.34 43% 5.1
6 Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL 6411 1510+5 132.17 WLWWW -0.53 +1.14 1% 11.7
7 Folsom Lake Surf 7502 349+25 152.14 WLLWW -0.25 +0.85 24% 6.0
8 Walnut Creek Surf 7502 2213+9 152.14 WLWWW -0.04 +1.01 5% 8.4
9 El Camino FC Salinas 7502 1913+6 152.14 WLWWL -0.04 -0.41 11% 6.9
10 Stanford Strikers 6402 1214-2 122.00 LWWWW -0.13 +0.25 0% 10.9
11 San Juan South 6303 96+3 91.50 WWWLL -0.30 +0.21 0% 11.8
12 Burlingame SC 7313 1416-2 101.43 DLWWW +0.19 -1.56 1% 9.3
13 Association FC 6222 1616+0 81.33 LDWLW -0.69 -0.27 0% 12.3
14 Cal Magic 6213 1020-10 71.17 LWDLL +0.77 -0.41 0% 14.9
15 MUFC ENCL RL 6204 1516-1 61.00 LWWLL +1.13 +0.48 0% 14.9
16 Valley United Soccer Club 6204 812-4 61.00 WLLLW -0.66 +0.24 0% 16.5
17 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 6204 1421-7 61.00 WLLWL +0.73 -0.69 0% 14.0
18 West Coast Soccer Club -RL 7124 731-24 50.71 LLDLW +0.41 -0.65 0% 19.6
19 San Francisco Elite Academy 6114 725-18 40.67 LLWDL +0.04 -0.45 0% 19.6
20 South Valley United Soccer Club 7115 1614+2 40.57 LLLLL -0.01 +0.96 0% 18.5
21 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 6105 822-14 30.50 LLLLL +0.26 -0.71 0% 19.1
22 Santa Clara Sporting 7106 443-39 30.43 LWLLL +0.41 -0.15 0% 22.6
23 Valley Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
24 North Coast FC BLUE 5005 024-24 00.00 LLLLL +1.91 -0.64 0% 22.1
25 SF United FC 6006 048-48 00.00 LLLLL +1.11 -1.49 0% 23.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.