TableChase Clubs

Reno APEX Soccer Club

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU17 · 25 teams · Reno APEX Soccer Club (all teams)

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3rd
6-0-1 record · 7 played
2.57 points per game
+21 goal diff · 32–11
WWLWWlast 5
64% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.0
+0.58 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:00 PM

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Reno APEX Soccer Club
3rd · 2.57 PPG
vs
Livermore Fusion SC
1st · 3.00 PPG

Lyman Gilmore 11v11, Soccer Field ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.7 for, 4.2 against · 0.44 expected points)

Season so farReno APEX Soccer ClubLivermore Fusion SC
Position3rd1st
Record (W-D-L)6-0-16-0-0
Points per game2.573.00
Goals for / game4.69.3
Goals against / game1.60.0
Clean sheets36
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W L W WW W W W W
Biggest win6–0 at Stanford Strikers15–0 vs Santa Clara Sporting
Worst loss2–5 at Solano Surf—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.25+5.25
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.58-1.90

Common opponents: Los Gatos United Soccer Club — we 6–3; they 5–0. Cal Magic — we 4–0; they 7–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Livermore Fusion SC score 9.3/game — well above the league's 2.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Livermore Fusion SC concede only 0.0/game with 6 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 11%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Livermore Fusion SC have won 6 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    Roseville SC -RL sit 2nd on 2.57 PPG; we are on 2.57.

    A point moves us above Roseville SC -RL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Livermore Fusion SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Reno APEX Soccer Club – Livermore Fusion SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 2.25 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 4
Win
2.63 PPG		 1st▲ up 2 1st▲ up 2 2nd▲ up 1
Draw
2.38 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1
Loss
2.25 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
64% top 4
36% below the top 4
4.0 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 19%
  3. 3rd 21%
  4. 4th 22%
  5. 5th 19%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 5%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th
  25. 25th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.80 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Livermore Fusion SC 3.00 (+0.43) 1st (2.88) 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Roseville SC -RL 2.57 (+0.00) 2nd (2.36) A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link Reno APEX Soccer Club to Livermore Fusion SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
8 favour them
-2.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–3 0–5 4–0 0–7 2–1 13–0 0–15 9–2 0–9 5–0 5–1 6–0 3–1 4–2 7–2 1–0 0–10 6–2 2–5 6–0 0–10 Reno APEX Soccer Cl… 3rd Los Gatos United So… 17th Cal Magic 14th Folsom Lake Surf 7th MUFC ENCL RL 15th Stanford Strikers 10th Walnut Creek Surf 8th Solano Surf 5th Santa Clara Sporting 22nd West Coast Soccer C… 18th Alameda Soccer Club… 21st North Coast FC BLUE 24th Livermore Fusion SC 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 13th 25th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.27 · 8th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 Livermore Fusion SC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +56		 Home
Lyman Gilmore 11v11		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–4 0.44 2.30 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM		 San Juan South
11th · 3-0-3 · GD +3		 Home
Lyman Gilmore 11v11		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 2–1 2.23 2.30 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
01:00 PM		 Santa Clara Sporting
22nd · 1-0-6 · GD -39		 Home
Lyman Gilmore 11v11		 ●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 8–0 2.98 2.36 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
11:00 AM		 Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL
6th · 4-1-1 · GD +5		 Away far trip
New Brighton Middle School		 ●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 3–1 2.02 2.33 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 PM		 Elk Grove Soccer
4th · 5-0-1 · GD +21		 Away far trip
Hal Bartholomew Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 2–2 1.31 2.25 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 San Francisco Elite Academy
19th · 1-1-4 · GD -18		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 5–1 2.81 2.29 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
01:00 PM		 North Coast FC BLUE
24th · 0-0-5 · GD -24		 Home
Lyman Gilmore 11v11		 ●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 6–0 2.95 2.34 Bank it
Sun May 2
01:00 PM		 Roseville SC -RL
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +23		 Away far trip
Placer Valley Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 2–2 1.29 2.27 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Livermore Fusion SC 6600 560+56 183.00 WWWWW -1.90 +0.60 100% 1.1
2 Roseville SC -RL 7601 307+23 182.57 WWWWL -1.11 +0.10 77% 3.5
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7601 3211+21 182.57 WWLWW +0.58 +0.27 64% 4.0
4 Elk Grove Soccer 6501 298+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.66 +0.05 77% 3.6
5 Solano Surf 6411 308+22 132.17 WLDWW -0.68 +0.34 43% 5.1
6 Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL 6411 1510+5 132.17 WLWWW -0.53 +1.14 1% 11.8
7 Folsom Lake Surf 7502 349+25 152.14 WLLWW -0.25 +0.85 22% 6.1
8 Walnut Creek Surf 7502 2213+9 152.14 WLWWW -0.04 +1.01 4% 8.5
9 El Camino FC Salinas 7502 1913+6 152.14 WLWWL -0.04 -0.41 12% 6.8
10 Stanford Strikers 6402 1214-2 122.00 LWWWW -0.13 +0.25 0% 10.8
11 San Juan South 6303 96+3 91.50 WWWLL -0.30 +0.21 0% 11.8
12 Burlingame SC 7313 1416-2 101.43 DLWWW +0.19 -1.56 1% 9.4
13 Association FC 6222 1616+0 81.33 LDWLW -0.69 -0.27 0% 12.3
14 Cal Magic 6213 1020-10 71.17 LWDLL +0.77 -0.41 0% 14.9
15 MUFC ENCL RL 6204 1516-1 61.00 LWWLL +1.13 +0.48 0% 14.9
16 Valley United Soccer Club 6204 812-4 61.00 WLLLW -0.66 +0.24 0% 16.5
17 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 6204 1421-7 61.00 WLLWL +0.73 -0.69 0% 14.1
18 West Coast Soccer Club -RL 7124 731-24 50.71 LLDLW +0.41 -0.65 0% 19.6
19 San Francisco Elite Academy 6114 725-18 40.67 LLWDL +0.04 -0.45 0% 19.6
20 South Valley United Soccer Club 7115 1614+2 40.57 LLLLL -0.01 +0.96 0% 18.6
21 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 6105 822-14 30.50 LLLLL +0.26 -0.71 0% 19.1
22 Santa Clara Sporting 7106 443-39 30.43 LWLLL +0.41 -0.15 0% 22.6
23 Valley Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
24 North Coast FC BLUE 5005 024-24 00.00 LLLLL +1.91 -0.64 0% 22.0
25 SF United FC 6006 048-48 00.00 LLLLL +1.11 -1.49 0% 23.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.