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Cal Magic

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU17 · 25 teams · California Magic Soccer Club (all teams)

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14th
2-1-3 record · 6 played
1.17 points per game
-10 goal diff · 10–20
LWDLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 15.0
+0.77 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:10 AM

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Cal Magic
14th · 1.17 PPG
vs
San Francisco Elite Academy
19th · 0.67 PPG

Wilder Sports Complex, Field #1 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.8 against · 2.05 expected points)

Season so farCal MagicSan Francisco Elite Academy
Position14th19th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-31-1-4
Points per game1.170.67
Goals for / game1.71.2
Goals against / game3.34.2
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless23
Form (recent first)L L D W LL D W L L
Biggest win6–2 vs Santa Clara Sporting5–1 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders
Worst loss0–7 at Livermore Fusion SC0–10 at South Valley United Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.82-1.85
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.77+0.04

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    San Francisco Elite Academy average 1.2 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 3 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    San Francisco Elite Academy concede 4.2/game; worst result 0–10 at South Valley United Soccer Club.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–7 at Livermore Fusion SC, 0–4 at Reno APEX Soccer Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 63% / draw 16% / loss 21%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    Association FC sit 13th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.17.

    A point moves us above Association FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the San Francisco Elite Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Cal Magic – San Francisco Elite Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.43 PPG		 13th▲ up 1 13th▲ up 1 14th— holds
Win
1.43 PPG		 13th▲ up 1 13th▲ up 1 14th— holds
Draw
1.14 PPG		 14th— holds 14th— holds 17th▼ down 3
Loss
1.00 PPG		 17th▼ down 3 15th▼ down 1 18th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 12th if every rival drops points, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
15.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th 5%
  12. 12th 7%
  13. 13th 9%
  14. 14th 13%
  15. 15th 18%
  16. 16th 16%
  17. 17th 14%
  18. 18th 8%
  19. 19th 3%
  20. 20th 2%
  21. 21st 1%
  22. 22nd <1%
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th
  25. 25th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Livermore Fusion SC 3.00 (+1.83) 1st (2.88) 38 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Roseville SC -RL 2.57 (+1.40) 2nd (2.36) 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 2.57 (+1.40) 4th (2.27) 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Elk Grove Soccer 2.50 (+1.33) 3rd (2.34) 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Solano Surf 2.17 (+1.00) 5th (2.15) 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
6 Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL 2.17 (+1.00) 11th (1.51) 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
7 Folsom Lake Surf 2.14 (+0.97) 6th (2.04) 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
8 Walnut Creek Surf 2.14 (+0.97) 8th (1.83) 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
9 El Camino FC Salinas 2.14 (+0.97) 7th (1.98) 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
10 Stanford Strikers 2.00 (+0.83) 10th (1.61) 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
11 San Juan South 1.50 (+0.33) 12th (1.50) 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
12 Burlingame SC 1.43 (+0.26) 9th (1.73) 15 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
13 Association FC 1.33 (+0.16) 13th (1.46) A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link Cal Magic to San Francisco Elite Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
2 even
3 favour them
+2.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–5 2–3 5–0 2–2 1–2 2–1 0–7 10–0 1–5 0–4 2–1 9–0 1–1 6–2 0–1 0–13 0–5 2–1 10–0 1–0 3–0 Cal Magic 14th MUFC ENCL RL 15th Burlingame SC 12th Livermore Fusion SC 1st Reno APEX Soccer Cl… 3rd Santa Clara Sporting 22nd San Juan South 11th Folsom Lake Surf 7th Santa Cruz United F… 6th Alameda Soccer Club… 21st West Coast Soccer C… 18th South Valley United… 20th San Francisco Elite… 19th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 13th 25th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.41 · 17th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:10 AM		 San Francisco Elite Academy
19th · 1-1-4 · GD -18		 Home
Wilder Sports Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 3–1 2.05 1.29 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
02:30 PM		 South Valley United Soccer Club
20th · 1-1-5 · GD +2		 Home
Wilder Sports Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–2 1.13 1.27 Upside
Sun Nov 8
02:30 PM		 Elk Grove Soccer
4th · 5-0-1 · GD +21		 Home
Wilder Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–4 0.37 1.17 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Valley United Soccer Club
16th · 2-0-4 · GD -4		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–2 1.20 1.17 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Walnut Creek Surf
8th · 5-0-2 · GD +9		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–3 0.52 1.12 Upside
Sat Apr 10
02:00 PM		 Solano Surf
5th · 4-1-1 · GD +22		 Away
Octo Inn Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–4 0.22 1.04 Upside
Sun Apr 18
02:30 PM		 Stanford Strikers
10th · 4-0-2 · GD -2		 Home
Wilder Sports Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–2 1.20 1.05 Upside
Sat Apr 24
02:30 PM		 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders
21st · 1-0-5 · GD -14		 Home
Wilder Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
58%		 2–1 1.92 1.11 Swing game
Sun May 2
02:30 PM		 SF United FC
25th · 0-0-6 · GD -48		 Home
Wilder Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 4–1 2.83 1.23 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Livermore Fusion SC 6600 560+56 183.00 WWWWW -1.90 +0.60 100% 1.1
2 Roseville SC -RL 7601 307+23 182.57 WWWWL -1.11 +0.10 79% 3.4
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7601 3211+21 182.57 WWLWW +0.58 +0.27 65% 4.0
4 Elk Grove Soccer 6501 298+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.66 +0.05 76% 3.6
5 Solano Surf 6411 308+22 132.17 WLDWW -0.68 +0.34 42% 5.1
6 Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL 6411 1510+5 132.17 WLWWW -0.53 +1.14 0% 11.7
7 Folsom Lake Surf 7502 349+25 152.14 WLLWW -0.25 +0.85 23% 6.0
8 Walnut Creek Surf 7502 2213+9 152.14 WLWWW -0.04 +1.01 3% 8.5
9 El Camino FC Salinas 7502 1913+6 152.14 WLWWL -0.04 -0.41 11% 6.9
10 Stanford Strikers 6402 1214-2 122.00 LWWWW -0.13 +0.25 0% 10.8
11 San Juan South 6303 96+3 91.50 WWWLL -0.30 +0.21 0% 11.8
12 Burlingame SC 7313 1416-2 101.43 DLWWW +0.19 -1.56 1% 9.3
13 Association FC 6222 1616+0 81.33 LDWLW -0.69 -0.27 0% 12.3
14 Cal Magic 6213 1020-10 71.17 LWDLL +0.77 -0.41 0% 15.0
15 MUFC ENCL RL 6204 1516-1 61.00 LWWLL +1.13 +0.48 0% 14.9
16 Valley United Soccer Club 6204 812-4 61.00 WLLLW -0.66 +0.24 0% 16.5
17 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 6204 1421-7 61.00 WLLWL +0.73 -0.69 0% 14.1
18 West Coast Soccer Club -RL 7124 731-24 50.71 LLDLW +0.41 -0.65 0% 19.7
19 San Francisco Elite Academy 6114 725-18 40.67 LLWDL +0.04 -0.45 0% 19.5
20 South Valley United Soccer Club 7115 1614+2 40.57 LLLLL -0.01 +0.96 0% 18.5
21 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 6105 822-14 30.50 LLLLL +0.26 -0.71 0% 19.1
22 Santa Clara Sporting 7106 443-39 30.43 LWLLL +0.41 -0.15 0% 22.6
23 Valley Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
24 North Coast FC BLUE 5005 024-24 00.00 LLLLL +1.91 -0.64 0% 22.1
25 SF United FC 6006 048-48 00.00 LLLLL +1.11 -1.49 0% 23.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.