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Santa Clara Sporting

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU17 · 25 teams · Santa Clara Sporting (all teams)

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22nd
1-0-6 record · 7 played
0.43 points per game
-39 goal diff · 4–43
LWLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 22.6
+0.41 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM

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Santa Clara Sporting
22nd · 0.43 PPG
vs
Stanford Strikers
10th · 2.00 PPG

Reed and Grant Youth Sports Park, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.2 for, 3.9 against · 0.29 expected points)

Season so farSanta Clara SportingStanford Strikers
Position22nd10th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-64-0-2
Points per game0.432.00
Goals for / game0.62.0
Goals against / game6.12.3
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless52
Form (recent first)L L L W LW W W W L
Biggest win2–1 at Valley United Soccer Club5–0 at SF United FC
Worst loss0–15 at Livermore Fusion SC0–6 vs Reno APEX Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-3.51-0.09
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.41-0.13

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–5 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders, 0–13 vs Folsom Lake Surf, 0–15 at Livermore Fusion SC, 0–2 vs El Camino FC Salinas, 0–1 at West Coast Soccer Club -RL.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 7%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Stanford Strikers have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    Alameda Soccer Club Islanders sit 21st on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.43.

    A point moves us above Alameda Soccer Club Islanders on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Stanford Strikers game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Santa Clara Sporting – Stanford Strikers) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.38 PPG		 22nd— holds 23rd▼ down 1 24th▼ down 2
Win
0.75 PPG		 18th▲ up 4 18th▲ up 4 21st▲ up 1
Draw
0.50 PPG		 22nd— holds 22nd— holds 23rd▼ down 1
Loss
0.38 PPG		 22nd— holds 23rd▼ down 1 24th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 22nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 24th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
22.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th <1%
  18. 18th <1%
  19. 19th 1%
  20. 20th 2%
  21. 21st 6%
  22. 22nd 31%
  23. 23rd 43%
  24. 24th 18%
  25. 25th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.80 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Livermore Fusion SC 3.00 (+2.57) 1st (2.88) 42 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Roseville SC -RL 2.57 (+2.14) 2nd (2.36) 36 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 2.57 (+2.14) 4th (2.27) 36 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Elk Grove Soccer 2.50 (+2.07) 3rd (2.34) 35 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Solano Surf 2.17 (+1.74) 5th (2.15) 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL 2.17 (+1.74) 11th (1.51) 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
7 Folsom Lake Surf 2.14 (+1.71) 6th (2.04) 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 Walnut Creek Surf 2.14 (+1.71) 8th (1.83) 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
9 El Camino FC Salinas 2.14 (+1.71) 7th (1.98) 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
10 Stanford Strikers 2.00 (+1.57) 10th (1.61) 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
11 San Juan South 1.50 (+1.07) 12th (1.50) 20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
12 Burlingame SC 1.43 (+1.00) 9th (1.73) 19 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
13 Association FC 1.33 (+0.90) 13th (1.46) 17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
14 Cal Magic 1.17 (+0.74) 15th (1.23) 15 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
15 MUFC ENCL RL 1.00 (+0.57) 16th (1.21) 12 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
16 Valley United Soccer Club 1.00 (+0.57) 17th (1.07) 12 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
17 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 1.00 (+0.57) 14th (1.30) 12 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
18 West Coast Soccer Club -RL 0.71 (+0.28) 21st (0.77) A point next game
19 San Francisco Elite Academy 0.67 (+0.24) 20th (0.77) A point next game
20 South Valley United Soccer Club 0.57 (+0.14) 18th (0.87) A point next game
21 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 0.50 (+0.07) 19th (0.81) A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link Santa Clara Sporting to Stanford Strikers through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
6 favour them
-3.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 2–1 0–1 2–6 0–4 6–0 2–4 1–3 0–1 2–4 0–2 2–1 6–0 1–0 1–3 0–13 1–2 0–15 5–0 Santa Clara Sporting 22nd Valley United Socce… 16th Cal Magic 14th West Coast Soccer C… 18th El Camino FC Salinas 9th Folsom Lake Surf 7th Livermore Fusion SC 1st South Valley United… 20th Reno APEX Soccer Cl… 3rd Los Gatos United So… 17th Elk Grove Soccer 4th San Juan South 11th Stanford Strikers 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 13th 25th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.15 · 14th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM		 Stanford Strikers
10th · 4-0-2 · GD -2		 Home
Reed and Grant Youth Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–3 0.29 0.41 Upside
Sun Nov 1
03:00 PM		 Burlingame SC
12th · 3-1-3 · GD -2		 Home
Reed and Grant Youth Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–4 0.27 0.40 Upside
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM		 Association FC
13th · 2-2-2 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Alden E. Oliver Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 1–5 0.15 0.37 Upside
Sun Mar 14
01:00 PM		 Reno APEX Soccer Club
3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +21		 Away far trip
Lyman Gilmore 11v11		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–8 0.01 0.34 Upside
Sun Apr 4
11:00 AM		 Roseville SC -RL
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +23		 Home
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–6 0.04 0.31 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 SF United FC
25th · 0-0-6 · GD -48		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 2–1 1.79 0.43 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
03:00 PM		 MUFC ENCL RL
15th · 2-0-4 · GD -1		 Home
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–4 0.19 0.41 Upside
Sun May 2
11:00 AM		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
17th · 2-0-4 · GD -7		 Home
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 1–4 0.32 0.40 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Livermore Fusion SC 6600 560+56 183.00 WWWWW -1.90 +0.60 100% 1.1
2 Roseville SC -RL 7601 307+23 182.57 WWWWL -1.11 +0.10 77% 3.4
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7601 3211+21 182.57 WWLWW +0.58 +0.27 63% 4.0
4 Elk Grove Soccer 6501 298+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.66 +0.05 76% 3.6
5 Solano Surf 6411 308+22 132.17 WLDWW -0.68 +0.34 44% 5.0
6 Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL 6411 1510+5 132.17 WLWWW -0.53 +1.14 1% 11.7
7 Folsom Lake Surf 7502 349+25 152.14 WLLWW -0.25 +0.85 23% 6.0
8 Walnut Creek Surf 7502 2213+9 152.14 WLWWW -0.04 +1.01 4% 8.5
9 El Camino FC Salinas 7502 1913+6 152.14 WLWWL -0.04 -0.41 11% 6.9
10 Stanford Strikers 6402 1214-2 122.00 LWWWW -0.13 +0.25 0% 10.8
11 San Juan South 6303 96+3 91.50 WWWLL -0.30 +0.21 0% 11.8
12 Burlingame SC 7313 1416-2 101.43 DLWWW +0.19 -1.56 1% 9.3
13 Association FC 6222 1616+0 81.33 LDWLW -0.69 -0.27 0% 12.3
14 Cal Magic 6213 1020-10 71.17 LWDLL +0.77 -0.41 0% 15.0
15 MUFC ENCL RL 6204 1516-1 61.00 LWWLL +1.13 +0.48 0% 14.9
16 Valley United Soccer Club 6204 812-4 61.00 WLLLW -0.66 +0.24 0% 16.5
17 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 6204 1421-7 61.00 WLLWL +0.73 -0.69 0% 14.1
18 West Coast Soccer Club -RL 7124 731-24 50.71 LLDLW +0.41 -0.65 0% 19.7
19 San Francisco Elite Academy 6114 725-18 40.67 LLWDL +0.04 -0.45 0% 19.6
20 South Valley United Soccer Club 7115 1614+2 40.57 LLLLL -0.01 +0.96 0% 18.6
21 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 6105 822-14 30.50 LLLLL +0.26 -0.71 0% 19.1
22 Santa Clara Sporting 7106 443-39 30.43 LWLLL +0.41 -0.15 0% 22.6
23 Valley Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
24 North Coast FC BLUE 5005 024-24 00.00 LLLLL +1.91 -0.64 0% 22.0
25 SF United FC 6006 048-48 00.00 LLLLL +1.11 -1.49 0% 23.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.