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Elk Grove Soccer

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU17 · 25 teams · Elk Grove Soccer (all teams)

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4th
5-0-1 record · 6 played
2.50 points per game
+21 goal diff · 29–8
WWWWWlast 5
75% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.6
-0.66 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:45 PM

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Elk Grove Soccer
4th · 2.50 PPG
at
San Francisco Elite Academy
19th · 0.67 PPG

Pollicita Middle School, Soccer Field ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.2 for, 1.3 against · 2.79 expected points)

Season so farElk Grove SoccerSan Francisco Elite Academy
Position4th19th
Record (W-D-L)5-0-11-1-4
Points per game2.500.67
Goals for / game4.81.2
Goals against / game1.34.2
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)W W W W WL D W L L
Biggest win12–0 vs SF United FC5–1 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders
Worst loss1–2 at El Camino FC Salinas0–10 at South Valley United Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.09-1.85
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.66+0.04

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    San Francisco Elite Academy average 1.2 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 3 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    San Francisco Elite Academy concede 4.2/game; worst result 0–10 at South Valley United Soccer Club.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 91% chance; likely score 5–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:45 PM at Pollicita Middle School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Reno APEX Soccer Club sit 3rd on 2.57 PPG; we are on 2.50.

    A point moves us above Reno APEX Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the San Francisco Elite Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Elk Grove Soccer – San Francisco Elite Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.57 PPG		 2nd▲ up 2 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1
Win
2.57 PPG		 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1
Draw
2.29 PPG		 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1
Loss
2.14 PPG		 7th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
75% top 4
25% below the top 4
3.6 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 30%
  3. 3rd 27%
  4. 4th 17%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th
  25. 25th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Livermore Fusion SC 3.00 (+0.50) 1st (2.88) 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Roseville SC -RL 2.57 (+0.07) 2nd (2.36) A point next game
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 2.57 (+0.07) 4th (2.27) A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link Elk Grove Soccer to San Francisco Elite Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
1 favour them
+7.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 1–2 2–1 3–2 1–0 1–5 1–2 2–1 5–0 5–3 2–3 2–1 10–0 12–0 0–3 6–0 6–0 1–0 Elk Grove Soccer 4th Burlingame SC 12th Walnut Creek Surf 8th El Camino FC Salinas 9th MUFC ENCL RL 15th SF United FC 25th Stanford Strikers 10th Santa Cruz United F… 6th Alameda Soccer Club… 21st Folsom Lake Surf 7th South Valley United… 20th Roseville SC -RL 2nd San Francisco Elite… 19th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 13th 25th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 13th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
04:45 PM		 San Francisco Elite Academy
19th · 1-1-4 · GD -18		 Away far trip
Pollicita Middle School		 ●○○○○ Favorable
91%		 5–1 2.79 2.54 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
02:15 PM		 Folsom Lake Surf
7th · 5-0-2 · GD +25		 Home
Hal Bartholomew Sports Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 2–2 1.48 2.41 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
02:30 PM		 Cal Magic
14th · 2-1-3 · GD -10		 Away far trip
Wilder Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 4–1 2.53 2.42 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
12:00 PM		 San Juan South
11th · 3-0-3 · GD +3		 Home
Hal Bartholomew Sports Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 2–1 2.18 2.40 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 West Coast Soccer Club -RL
18th · 1-2-4 · GD -24		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 5–1 2.84 2.44 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 PM		 Reno APEX Soccer Club
3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +21		 Home
Hal Bartholomew Sports Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 2–2 1.52 2.36 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
11:00 AM		 Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL
6th · 4-1-1 · GD +5		 Away far trip
New Brighton Middle School		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 1.96 2.33 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 PM		 South Valley United Soccer Club
20th · 1-1-5 · GD +2		 Home
Hal Bartholomew Sports Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 3–1 2.43 2.34 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Livermore Fusion SC 6600 560+56 183.00 WWWWW -1.90 +0.60 100% 1.1
2 Roseville SC -RL 7601 307+23 182.57 WWWWL -1.11 +0.10 77% 3.5
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7601 3211+21 182.57 WWLWW +0.58 +0.27 63% 4.1
4 Elk Grove Soccer 6501 298+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.66 +0.05 75% 3.6
5 Solano Surf 6411 308+22 132.17 WLDWW -0.68 +0.34 41% 5.2
6 Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL 6411 1510+5 132.17 WLWWW -0.53 +1.14 1% 11.7
7 Folsom Lake Surf 7502 349+25 152.14 WLLWW -0.25 +0.85 25% 6.0
8 Walnut Creek Surf 7502 2213+9 152.14 WLWWW -0.04 +1.01 4% 8.5
9 El Camino FC Salinas 7502 1913+6 152.14 WLWWL -0.04 -0.41 13% 6.8
10 Stanford Strikers 6402 1214-2 122.00 LWWWW -0.13 +0.25 0% 10.9
11 San Juan South 6303 96+3 91.50 WWWLL -0.30 +0.21 0% 11.9
12 Burlingame SC 7313 1416-2 101.43 DLWWW +0.19 -1.56 1% 9.3
13 Association FC 6222 1616+0 81.33 LDWLW -0.69 -0.27 0% 12.3
14 Cal Magic 6213 1020-10 71.17 LWDLL +0.77 -0.41 0% 14.9
15 MUFC ENCL RL 6204 1516-1 61.00 LWWLL +1.13 +0.48 0% 14.9
16 Valley United Soccer Club 6204 812-4 61.00 WLLLW -0.66 +0.24 0% 16.4
17 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 6204 1421-7 61.00 WLLWL +0.73 -0.69 0% 14.1
18 West Coast Soccer Club -RL 7124 731-24 50.71 LLDLW +0.41 -0.65 0% 19.7
19 San Francisco Elite Academy 6114 725-18 40.67 LLWDL +0.04 -0.45 0% 19.7
20 South Valley United Soccer Club 7115 1614+2 40.57 LLLLL -0.01 +0.96 0% 18.5
21 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 6105 822-14 30.50 LLLLL +0.26 -0.71 0% 19.1
22 Santa Clara Sporting 7106 443-39 30.43 LWLLL +0.41 -0.15 0% 22.6
23 Valley Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
24 North Coast FC BLUE 5005 024-24 00.00 LLLLL +1.91 -0.64 0% 22.0
25 SF United FC 6006 048-48 00.00 LLLLL +1.11 -1.49 0% 23.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.