TableChase Clubs

South Valley United Soccer Club

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU17 · 25 teams · South Valley United Soccer Club (all teams)

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20th
1-1-5 record · 7 played
0.57 points per game
+2 goal diff · 16–14
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 18.6
-0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM

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South Valley United Soccer Club
20th · 0.57 PPG
vs
Folsom Lake Surf
7th · 2.14 PPG

Neighborhood Church, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.7 for, 3.4 against · 0.60 expected points)

Season so farSouth Valley United Soccer ClubFolsom Lake Surf
Position20th7th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-55-0-2
Points per game0.572.14
Goals for / game2.34.9
Goals against / game2.01.3
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)L L L L LW W L L W
Biggest win10–0 vs San Francisco Elite Academy13–0 at Santa Clara Sporting
Worst loss0–3 vs San Juan South1–2 vs Reno APEX Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.03+2.28
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.01-0.25

Common opponents: San Francisco Elite Academy — we 10–0; they 5–0. Roseville SC -RL — we 2–4; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Folsom Lake Surf score 4.9/game — well above the league's 2.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 vs San Juan South, 0–1 vs Stanford Strikers.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 16%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    San Francisco Elite Academy sit 19th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.57.

    A point moves us above San Francisco Elite Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Folsom Lake Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (South Valley United Soccer Club – Folsom Lake Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.50 PPG		 20th— holds 19th▲ up 1 22nd▼ down 2
Win
0.88 PPG		 18th▲ up 2 16th▲ up 4 19th▲ up 1
Draw
0.63 PPG		 20th— holds 19th▲ up 1 22nd▼ down 2
Loss
0.50 PPG		 20th— holds 19th▲ up 1 22nd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–3 loss we finish as high as 19th if every rival drops points, and as low as 22nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
18.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th 2%
  15. 15th 3%
  16. 16th 8%
  17. 17th 14%
  18. 18th 19%
  19. 19th 20%
  20. 20th 15%
  21. 21st 13%
  22. 22nd 4%
  23. 23rd 1%
  24. 24th <1%
  25. 25th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 1.94 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Livermore Fusion SC 3.00 (+2.43) 1st (2.88) 44 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Roseville SC -RL 2.57 (+2.00) 2nd (2.36) 38 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 2.57 (+2.00) 4th (2.27) 38 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Elk Grove Soccer 2.50 (+1.93) 3rd (2.34) 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Solano Surf 2.17 (+1.60) 5th (2.15) 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL 2.17 (+1.60) 11th (1.51) 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
7 Folsom Lake Surf 2.14 (+1.57) 6th (2.04) 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 Walnut Creek Surf 2.14 (+1.57) 8th (1.83) 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
9 El Camino FC Salinas 2.14 (+1.57) 7th (1.98) 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
10 Stanford Strikers 2.00 (+1.43) 10th (1.61) 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
11 San Juan South 1.50 (+0.93) 12th (1.50) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
12 Burlingame SC 1.43 (+0.86) 9th (1.73) 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
13 Association FC 1.33 (+0.76) 13th (1.46) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
14 Cal Magic 1.17 (+0.60) 15th (1.23) 15 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
15 MUFC ENCL RL 1.00 (+0.43) 16th (1.21) 12 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
16 Valley United Soccer Club 1.00 (+0.43) 17th (1.07) 12 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
17 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 1.00 (+0.43) 14th (1.30) 12 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
18 West Coast Soccer Club -RL 0.71 (+0.14) 21st (0.77) A point next game
19 San Francisco Elite Academy 0.67 (+0.10) 20th (0.77) A point next game

How the results connect

12 chains · 14 teams

Paths of results that link South Valley United Soccer Club to Folsom Lake Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
8 favour them
-2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–4 1–2 10–0 0–5 6–0 7–0 2–9 1–2 0–3 2–1 0–3 2–1 2–3 1–1 1–2 7–3 0–1 0–6 2–1 2–2 0–7 1–2 0–13 South Valley United… 20th Roseville SC -RL 2nd San Francisco Elite… 19th Valley United Socce… 16th San Juan South 11th Burlingame SC 12th Stanford Strikers 10th Association FC 13th West Coast Soccer C… 18th El Camino FC Salinas 9th MUFC ENCL RL 15th Reno APEX Soccer Cl… 3rd Santa Clara Sporting 22nd Folsom Lake Surf 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 13th 25th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.96 · 3rd hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
02:00 PM		 Folsom Lake Surf
7th · 5-0-2 · GD +25		 Home
Neighborhood Church		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–3 0.60 0.58 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:30 PM		 Cal Magic
14th · 2-1-3 · GD -10		 Away far trip
Wilder Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 2–1 1.68 0.70 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
04:00 PM		 Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL
6th · 4-1-1 · GD +5		 Home
Neighborhood Church		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–2 1.34 0.76 Upside
Sun Apr 4
10:00 AM		 MUFC ENCL RL
15th · 2-0-4 · GD -1		 Away far trip
Merced Regional Sports Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 2–2 1.15 0.80 Upside
Sat Apr 10
05:00 PM		 Livermore Fusion SC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +56		 Away far trip
Robertson Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–6 0.05 0.73 Upside
Sat Apr 17
12:00 PM		 Solano Surf
5th · 4-1-1 · GD +22		 Home
Neighborhood Church		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–3 0.66 0.73 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 North Coast FC BLUE
24th · 0-0-5 · GD -24		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 3–1 2.44 0.85 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
17th · 2-0-4 · GD -7		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 2–2 1.50 0.89 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 PM		 Elk Grove Soccer
4th · 5-0-1 · GD +21		 Away far trip
Hal Bartholomew Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–3 0.45 0.87 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Livermore Fusion SC 6600 560+56 183.00 WWWWW -1.90 +0.60 100% 1.1
2 Roseville SC -RL 7601 307+23 182.57 WWWWL -1.11 +0.10 77% 3.5
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7601 3211+21 182.57 WWLWW +0.58 +0.27 64% 4.0
4 Elk Grove Soccer 6501 298+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.66 +0.05 77% 3.6
5 Solano Surf 6411 308+22 132.17 WLDWW -0.68 +0.34 43% 5.1
6 Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL 6411 1510+5 132.17 WLWWW -0.53 +1.14 1% 11.8
7 Folsom Lake Surf 7502 349+25 152.14 WLLWW -0.25 +0.85 22% 6.1
8 Walnut Creek Surf 7502 2213+9 152.14 WLWWW -0.04 +1.01 4% 8.5
9 El Camino FC Salinas 7502 1913+6 152.14 WLWWL -0.04 -0.41 12% 6.8
10 Stanford Strikers 6402 1214-2 122.00 LWWWW -0.13 +0.25 0% 10.8
11 San Juan South 6303 96+3 91.50 WWWLL -0.30 +0.21 0% 11.8
12 Burlingame SC 7313 1416-2 101.43 DLWWW +0.19 -1.56 1% 9.4
13 Association FC 6222 1616+0 81.33 LDWLW -0.69 -0.27 0% 12.3
14 Cal Magic 6213 1020-10 71.17 LWDLL +0.77 -0.41 0% 14.9
15 MUFC ENCL RL 6204 1516-1 61.00 LWWLL +1.13 +0.48 0% 14.9
16 Valley United Soccer Club 6204 812-4 61.00 WLLLW -0.66 +0.24 0% 16.5
17 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 6204 1421-7 61.00 WLLWL +0.73 -0.69 0% 14.1
18 West Coast Soccer Club -RL 7124 731-24 50.71 LLDLW +0.41 -0.65 0% 19.6
19 San Francisco Elite Academy 6114 725-18 40.67 LLWDL +0.04 -0.45 0% 19.6
20 South Valley United Soccer Club 7115 1614+2 40.57 LLLLL -0.01 +0.96 0% 18.6
21 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 6105 822-14 30.50 LLLLL +0.26 -0.71 0% 19.1
22 Santa Clara Sporting 7106 443-39 30.43 LWLLL +0.41 -0.15 0% 22.6
23 Valley Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
24 North Coast FC BLUE 5005 024-24 00.00 LLLLL +1.91 -0.64 0% 22.0
25 SF United FC 6006 048-48 00.00 LLLLL +1.11 -1.49 0% 23.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.