TableChase Clubs

Association FC

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU17 · 25 teams · Association Football Club (all teams)

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13th
2-2-2 record · 6 played
1.33 points per game
+0 goal diff · 16–16
LDWLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.3
-0.69 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM

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Association FC
13th · 1.33 PPG
vs
Walnut Creek Surf
8th · 2.14 PPG

Alden E. Oliver Sports Park, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.9 against · 1.03 expected points)

Season so farAssociation FCWalnut Creek Surf
Position13th8th
Record (W-D-L)2-2-25-0-2
Points per game1.332.14
Goals for / game2.73.1
Goals against / game2.71.9
Clean sheets14
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)W L W D LW W W L W
Biggest win10–0 vs SF United FC9–0 vs SF United FC
Worst loss0–7 at El Camino FC Salinas2–7 at Reno APEX Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.18+0.85
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.69-0.04

Common opponents: Solano Surf — we 1–1; they 5–3. Alameda Soccer Club Islanders — we 3–2; they 1–0. SF United FC — we 10–0; they 9–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–7 at El Camino FC Salinas, 0–4 vs Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 29%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Walnut Creek Surf have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    Burlingame SC sit 12th on 1.43 PPG; we are on 1.33.

    A point moves us above Burlingame SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Walnut Creek Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Association FC – Walnut Creek Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.29 PPG		 13th— holds 14th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 1
Win
1.57 PPG		 11th▲ up 2 12th▲ up 1 12th▲ up 1
Draw
1.29 PPG		 13th— holds 14th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 1
Loss
1.14 PPG		 14th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 1 18th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 12th if every rival drops points, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th 7%
  10. 10th 10%
  11. 11th 14%
  12. 12th 16%
  13. 13th 16%
  14. 14th 12%
  15. 15th 10%
  16. 16th 4%
  17. 17th 3%
  18. 18th 1%
  19. 19th 1%
  20. 20th <1%
  21. 21st <1%
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th
  25. 25th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.29 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Livermore Fusion SC 3.00 (+1.67) 1st (2.88) 34 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Roseville SC -RL 2.57 (+1.24) 2nd (2.36) 28 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 2.57 (+1.24) 4th (2.27) 28 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
4 Elk Grove Soccer 2.50 (+1.17) 3rd (2.34) 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Solano Surf 2.17 (+0.84) 5th (2.15) 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
6 Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL 2.17 (+0.84) 11th (1.51) 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
7 Folsom Lake Surf 2.14 (+0.81) 6th (2.04) 22 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
8 Walnut Creek Surf 2.14 (+0.81) 8th (1.83) 22 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
9 El Camino FC Salinas 2.14 (+0.81) 7th (1.98) 22 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
10 Stanford Strikers 2.00 (+0.67) 10th (1.61) 20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
11 San Juan South 1.50 (+0.17) 12th (1.50) A point next game
12 Burlingame SC 1.43 (+0.10) 9th (1.73) A point next game

How the results connect

12 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Association FC to Walnut Creek Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
2 even
8 favour them
-1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–2 0–1 10–0 0–9 1–1 3–5 9–0 0–12 3–2 2–2 1–2 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–1 0–7 2–1 3–0 5–2 7–2 Association FC 13th Alameda Soccer Club… 21st SF United FC 25th Solano Surf 5th South Valley United… 20th El Camino FC Salinas 9th Elk Grove Soccer 4th Valley United Socce… 16th San Juan South 11th Reno APEX Soccer Cl… 3rd Walnut Creek Surf 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 13th 25th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.27 · 15th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
02:00 PM		 Walnut Creek Surf
8th · 5-0-2 · GD +9		 Home
Alden E. Oliver Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 2–2 1.03 1.29 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 San Francisco Elite Academy
19th · 1-1-4 · GD -18		 Home
Witter Sports Complex · turf?		 ●○○○○ Favorable
75%		 3–1 2.37 1.43 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM		 Santa Clara Sporting
22nd · 1-0-6 · GD -39		 Home
Alden E. Oliver Sports Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
91%		 5–1 2.80 1.58 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Stanford Strikers
10th · 4-0-2 · GD -2		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%		 2–2 1.21 1.54 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Burlingame SC
12th · 3-1-3 · GD -2		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
33%		 2–2 1.17 1.51 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 West Coast Soccer Club -RL
18th · 1-2-4 · GD -24		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 3–1 2.26 1.57 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
01:00 PM		 Livermore Fusion SC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +56		 Away
Robertson Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–7 0.03 1.45 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 Valley United Soccer Club
16th · 2-0-4 · GD -4		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 2–1 1.51 1.46 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Livermore Fusion SC 6600 560+56 183.00 WWWWW -1.90 +0.60 100% 1.1
2 Roseville SC -RL 7601 307+23 182.57 WWWWL -1.11 +0.10 77% 3.4
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7601 3211+21 182.57 WWLWW +0.58 +0.27 62% 4.1
4 Elk Grove Soccer 6501 298+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.66 +0.05 77% 3.5
5 Solano Surf 6411 308+22 132.17 WLDWW -0.68 +0.34 43% 5.1
6 Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL 6411 1510+5 132.17 WLWWW -0.53 +1.14 1% 11.7
7 Folsom Lake Surf 7502 349+25 152.14 WLLWW -0.25 +0.85 21% 6.1
8 Walnut Creek Surf 7502 2213+9 152.14 WLWWW -0.04 +1.01 5% 8.4
9 El Camino FC Salinas 7502 1913+6 152.14 WLWWL -0.04 -0.41 11% 6.9
10 Stanford Strikers 6402 1214-2 122.00 LWWWW -0.13 +0.25 1% 10.8
11 San Juan South 6303 96+3 91.50 WWWLL -0.30 +0.21 0% 11.8
12 Burlingame SC 7313 1416-2 101.43 DLWWW +0.19 -1.56 1% 9.3
13 Association FC 6222 1616+0 81.33 LDWLW -0.69 -0.27 0% 12.3
14 Cal Magic 6213 1020-10 71.17 LWDLL +0.77 -0.41 0% 15.0
15 MUFC ENCL RL 6204 1516-1 61.00 LWWLL +1.13 +0.48 0% 14.9
16 Valley United Soccer Club 6204 812-4 61.00 WLLLW -0.66 +0.24 0% 16.6
17 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 6204 1421-7 61.00 WLLWL +0.73 -0.69 0% 14.0
18 West Coast Soccer Club -RL 7124 731-24 50.71 LLDLW +0.41 -0.65 0% 19.7
19 San Francisco Elite Academy 6114 725-18 40.67 LLWDL +0.04 -0.45 0% 19.5
20 South Valley United Soccer Club 7115 1614+2 40.57 LLLLL -0.01 +0.96 0% 18.6
21 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 6105 822-14 30.50 LLLLL +0.26 -0.71 0% 19.0
22 Santa Clara Sporting 7106 443-39 30.43 LWLLL +0.41 -0.15 0% 22.6
23 Valley Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
24 North Coast FC BLUE 5005 024-24 00.00 LLLLL +1.91 -0.64 0% 22.0
25 SF United FC 6006 048-48 00.00 LLLLL +1.11 -1.49 0% 23.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.