Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL
ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU17 · 25 teams · Santa Cruz United Football Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM
Merced College, Field 3 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.2 for, 2.3 against · 1.37 expected points)
| Season so far | Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL | MUFC ENCL RL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 15th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-1 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per game | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L W | L L W W L |
| Biggest win | 4–0 at Association FC | 4–0 vs El Camino FC Salinas |
| Worst loss | 3–5 vs Roseville SC -RL | 0–5 at Reno APEX Soccer Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.42 | +0.24 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.53 | +1.13 |
Game plan
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 39%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Merced College.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Solano Surf sit 5th on 2.17 PPG; we are on 2.17.A point moves us above Solano Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the MUFC ENCL RL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL – MUFC ENCL RL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 2.00 PPG |
9th▼ down 3 | 9th▼ down 3 | 10th▼ down 4 |
| Win 2.29 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
9th▼ down 3 | 9th▼ down 3 | 10th▼ down 4 |
| Loss 1.86 PPG |
10th▼ down 4 | 10th▼ down 4 | 10th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th 1%
- 6th 1%
- 7th 3%
- 8th 6%
- 9th 10%
- 10th 11%
- 11th 12%
- 12th 15%
- 13th 13%
- 14th 10%
- 15th 8%
- 16th 6%
- 17th 3%
- 18th 1%
- 19th <1%
- 20th
- 21st
- 22nd
- 23rd
- 24th
- 25th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Livermore Fusion SC | 3.00 (+0.83) | 1st (2.88) | 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Roseville SC -RL | 2.57 (+0.40) | 2nd (2.36) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 3 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 2.57 (+0.40) | 4th (2.27) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 4 | Elk Grove Soccer | 2.50 (+0.33) | 3rd (2.34) | 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 5 | Solano Surf | 2.17 (+0.00) | 5th (2.15) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 13 teams
Paths of results that link Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL to MUFC ENCL RL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +1.14 · 1st hardest of 24
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
MUFC ENCL RL 15th · 2-0-4 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Merced College |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–2 | 1.37 | 2.05 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM |
Stanford Strikers 10th · 4-0-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Hillview Middle School soccer field |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–1 | 1.52 | 1.99 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 04:00 PM |
South Valley United Soccer Club 20th · 1-1-5 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Neighborhood Church |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
2–1 | 1.46 | 1.93 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 02:00 PM |
Folsom Lake Surf 7th · 5-0-2 · GD +25 |
Away far trip
Econome Family Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.55 | 1.79 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
Reno APEX Soccer Club 3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +21 |
Home New Brighton Middle School |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–3 | 0.81 | 1.70 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Walnut Creek Surf 8th · 5-0-2 · GD +9 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–2 | 1.06 | 1.65 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
Elk Grove Soccer 4th · 5-0-1 · GD +21 |
Home New Brighton Middle School |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.87 | 1.59 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
El Camino FC Salinas 9th · 5-0-2 · GD +6 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–2 | 1.22 | 1.56 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 11:00 AM |
Solano Surf 5th · 4-1-1 · GD +22 |
Home New Brighton Middle School |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.86 | 1.51 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Livermore Fusion SC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 0 | +56 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.90 | +0.60 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Roseville SC -RL | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 7 | +23 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWL | -1.11 | +0.10 | 77% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 1 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs MUFC ENCL RL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 11 | +21 | 18 | 2.57 | WWLWW | +0.58 | +0.27 | 64% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Juan South · Sun Mar 14 vs Santa Clara Sporting See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Elk Grove Soccer | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 8 | +21 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWW | -0.66 | +0.05 | 77% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Cal Magic See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Solano Surf | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 8 | +22 | 13 | 2.17 | WLDWW | -0.68 | +0.34 | 43% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Roseville SC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Stanford Strikers See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 13 | 2.17 | WLWWW | -0.53 | +1.14 | 1% | 11.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at MUFC ENCL RL · Sun Nov 1 at Stanford Strikers · Sun Nov 8 at South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Folsom Lake Surf | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 9 | +25 | 15 | 2.14 | WLLWW | -0.25 | +0.85 | 22% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 8 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Walnut Creek Surf | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 13 | +9 | 15 | 2.14 | WLWWW | -0.04 | +1.01 | 4% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Association FC · Sun Mar 14 at Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Apr 4 vs Cal Magic See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | El Camino FC Salinas | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 15 | 2.14 | WLWWL | -0.04 | -0.41 | 12% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Roseville SC -RL · Sun Nov 1 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders · Sun Nov 8 at North Coast FC BLUE See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Stanford Strikers | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 12 | 2.00 | LWWWW | -0.13 | +0.25 | 0% | 10.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 1 vs Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL · Sat Nov 7 vs Solano Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | San Juan South | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 | 1.50 | WWWLL | -0.30 | +0.21 | 0% | 11.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Wed Nov 11 vs West Coast Soccer Club -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Burlingame SC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 10 | 1.43 | DLWWW | +0.19 | -1.56 | 1% | 9.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders · Sun Nov 1 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 8 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Association FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 16 | +0 | 8 | 1.33 | LDWLW | -0.69 | -0.27 | 0% | 12.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Clara Sporting See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Cal Magic | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 7 | 1.17 | LWDLL | +0.77 | -0.41 | 0% | 14.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Elk Grove Soccer See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | MUFC ENCL RL | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 6 | 1.00 | LWWLL | +1.13 | +0.48 | 0% | 14.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL · Sun Nov 8 at Roseville SC -RL · Sun Mar 14 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Valley United Soccer Club | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 | 1.00 | WLLLW | -0.66 | +0.24 | 0% | 16.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 1 at San Juan South · Sun Nov 8 vs San Francisco Elite Academy See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 6 | 1.00 | WLLWL | +0.73 | -0.69 | 0% | 14.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 1 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Burlingame SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | West Coast Soccer Club -RL | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 31 | -24 | 5 | 0.71 | LLDLW | +0.41 | -0.65 | 0% | 19.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at North Coast FC BLUE · Wed Nov 11 at San Juan South · Sun Mar 14 at Burlingame SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 4 | 0.67 | LLWDL | +0.04 | -0.45 | 0% | 19.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cal Magic · Sun Oct 25 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Association FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLLL | -0.01 | +0.96 | 0% | 18.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Cal Magic · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Cruz United FC CNL RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Alameda Soccer Club Islanders | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLLL | +0.26 | -0.71 | 0% | 19.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Burlingame SC · Sun Nov 1 at El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 8 vs SF United FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | Santa Clara Sporting | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 43 | -39 | 3 | 0.43 | LWLLL | +0.41 | -0.15 | 0% | 22.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Stanford Strikers · Sun Nov 1 vs Burlingame SC · Sun Nov 8 at Association FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Valley Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. |
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| 24 | North Coast FC BLUE | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 24 | -24 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.91 | -0.64 | 0% | 22.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast Soccer Club -RL · Sun Nov 8 vs El Camino FC Salinas See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 25 | SF United FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 48 | -48 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.11 | -1.49 | 0% | 23.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Nov 1 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.