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Real Colorado Olympico

ECNL Regional League Girls · Mountain GU18/19 · 19 teams · Real Colorado (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 53 minutes ago.
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7th
2-2-8 record · 12 played
0.67 points per game
-20 goal diff · 9–29
WLLDWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 15.7
+0.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:30 AM

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Real Colorado Olympico
7th · 0.67 PPG
at
Colorado Storm South
6th · 1.09 PPG

Gates South Soccer Complex, 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.3 against · 0.75 expected points)

Season so farReal Colorado OlympicoColorado Storm South
Position7th6th
Record (W-D-L)2-2-83-3-5
Points per game0.671.09
Goals for / game0.81.9
Goals against / game2.42.6
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless73
Form (recent first)W D L L WW L L L L
Biggest win3–0 at Colorado Storm North5–1 vs Colorado Storm North
Worst loss0–5 vs Arsenal Colorado0–5 vs Colorado Storm Central
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.17-0.46
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.12+0.23

Common opponents: Arsenal Colorado — we 1–5, 0–5; they 3–3, 0–3. Pride SC — we 0–2, 0–0; they 0–2. Colorado Rush — we 0–1, 0–3; they 2–5. Colorado Storm Central — we 0–5; they 0–5. Colorado Storm North — we 2–4, 3–0; they 2–2, 5–1. Colorado EDGE — we 0–3; they 2–2, 1–2. CCV STARS — we 1–1; they 2–1. Arizona Soccer Club — we 2–0; they 4–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 7 time(s): 0–2 vs Pride SC, 0–5 vs Arsenal Colorado, 0–1 at Colorado Rush, 0–0 at Pride SC, 0–5 at Colorado Storm Central, 0–3 vs Colorado Rush, 0–3 at Colorado EDGE.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 18%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:30 AM at Gates South Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:30 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Colorado Storm South game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Real Colorado Olympico – Colorado Storm South) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.62 PPG
7th— holds 8th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 2
Win
0.85 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Draw
0.69 PPG
7th— holds 8th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 2
Loss
0.62 PPG
7th— holds 8th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
15.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th 2%
  14. 14th 7%
  15. 15th 29%
  16. 16th 41%
  17. 17th 17%
  18. 18th 3%
  19. 19th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 1.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Colorado Storm Central 2.20 (+1.53) 1st (2.19) 34 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Colorado EDGE 2.18 (+1.51) 2nd (2.17) 34 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Arsenal Colorado 2.09 (+1.42) 3rd (2.04) 32 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Colorado Rush 2.09 (+1.42) 4th (2.02) 32 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Pride SC 1.78 (+1.11) 5th (1.57) 26 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Colorado Storm South 1.09 (+0.42) 14th (1.12) 13 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection

How the results connect

128 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Real Colorado Olympico to Colorado Storm South through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

35 favour us
13 even
80 favour them
-1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 5–2 0–5 5–0 0–2 2–0 2–0 3–4 1–1 1–2 3–0 1–5 1–5 3–0 0–3 2–1 2–4 2–2 0–0 0–1 0–5 Real Colorado Olymp… 7th Colorado Rush 4th Colorado Storm Cent… 1st Pride SC 5th Arizona Soccer Club 19th CCV STARS 9th Colorado Storm North 8th Arsenal Colorado 3rd Colorado EDGE 2nd Colorado Storm South 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 10th 19th Aug 16 Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.26 · 3rd hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:30 AM
Colorado Storm South
6th · 3-3-5 · GD -8
Away
Gates South Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.75 0.67 Upside
Mon Oct 26
05:30 PM
Colorado Storm South
6th · 3-3-5 · GD -8
Home
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–2 0.97 0.69 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:30 PM
Colorado EDGE
2nd · 7-3-1 · GD +18
Home
Highland Heritage Regional Park · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
7%
0–2 0.34 0.67 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:30 PM
Colorado Storm Central
1st · 7-1-2 · GD +16
Home
Highland Heritage Regional Park · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–3 0.35 0.65 Upside
Sat Nov 21
01:30 PM
La Roca FC North
14th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Highland Heritage Regional Park · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.80 0.66 Upside
Sun Nov 22
01:30 PM
Utah Surf
18th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Highland Heritage Regional Park · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.80 0.67 Upside
Sun Jan 24
12:00 PM
La Roca FC South
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away far trip
Lakeside Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
14%
0–2 0.60 0.66 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Colorado Storm Central 10712 3115+16 222.20 WWWDL +0.33 -0.08 93% 2.2
2 Colorado EDGE 11731 2911+18 242.18 WWWDW +0.37 -0.23 91% 2.4
3 Arsenal Colorado 11722 3615+21 232.09 WLWWW +0.02 +0.25 77% 3.4
4 Colorado Rush 11722 2713+14 232.09 WWWWW -0.22 +0.13 74% 3.6
5 Pride SC 9513 1911+8 161.78 DLLWL -0.34 +0.47 5% 7.8
6 Colorado Storm South 11335 2129-8 121.09 LLLLW +0.23 +0.07 0% 12.4
7 Real Colorado Olympico 12228 929-20 80.67 WLLDW +0.12 +0.26 0% 15.7
8 Colorado Storm North 11119 1239-27 40.36 LWLLL +0.46 +0.36 0% 17.2
9 CCV STARS 4013 416-12 10.25 LLDL -0.03 -0.32 0% 16.1
10 Avalanche 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.09 ——
11 Boise Thorns 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
12 El Paso Locomotive FC G08/09 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.28 ——
13 Idaho Rush 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.03 ——
14 La Roca FC North 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.01 ——
15 La Roca FC South 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.01 ——
16 NM Rapids SC 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.28 ——
17 NUU Avalanche 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.03 ——
18 Utah Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.01 ——
19 Arizona Soccer Club 4004 313-10 00.00 LLLL -0.03 -0.39 0% 16.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.