TableChase Clubs

Colorado Storm Central

ECNL Regional League Girls · Mountain GU18/19 · 19 teams · Colorado Storm (all teams)

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1st
7-1-2 record · 10 played
2.20 points per game
+16 goal diff · 31–15
WWWDLlast 5
93% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.2
+0.33 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 12:00 PM

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Colorado Storm Central
1st · 2.20 PPG
at
Pride SC
5th · 1.78 PPG

Pride Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.7 against · 1.65 expected points)

Season so farColorado Storm CentralPride SC
Position1st5th
Record (W-D-L)7-1-25-1-3
Points per game2.201.78
Goals for / game3.12.1
Goals against / game1.51.2
Clean sheets35
Held scoreless13
Form (recent first)L D W W WL W L L D
Biggest win5–0 vs Real Colorado Olympico6–0 vs Arizona Soccer Club
Worst loss0–4 at Arsenal Colorado0–5 at Colorado EDGE
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.37+0.48
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.33-0.34

Common opponents: Colorado Rush — we 3–2, 3–0; they 2–3. Colorado Storm North — we 5–1, 5–1; they 1–0. Colorado EDGE — we 2–5, 1–1; they 0–1, 0–5. Real Colorado Olympico — we 5–0; they 2–0, 0–0. Colorado Storm South — we 5–0; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at Arsenal Colorado.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 48% / draw 21% / loss 31%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at Pride Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pride SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Colorado Storm Central – Pride SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.27 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1
Win
2.27 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1
Draw
2.09 PPG
3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2 4th▼ down 3
Loss
2.00 PPG
4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

41% finish 1st
93% top 4
8% below the top 4
2.2 average finish
  1. 1st 41%
  2. 2nd 25%
  3. 3rd 17%
  4. 4th 10%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

104 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Colorado Storm Central to Pride SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

73 favour us
8 even
23 favour them
+2.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 1–0 2–5 5–0 3–2 3–2 5–0 0–2 5–0 0–2 5–1 0–1 5–1 3–0 0–0 0–4 5–1 Colorado Storm Cent… 1st Colorado EDGE 2nd Colorado Rush 4th Colorado Storm South 6th Real Colorado Olymp… 7th Colorado Storm North 8th Arsenal Colorado 3rd Pride SC 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 10th 19th Aug 16 Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 13th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
12:00 PM
Pride SC
5th · 5-1-3 · GD +8
Away far trip
Pride Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–1 1.65 2.15 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
11:15 AM
Colorado Storm South
6th · 3-3-5 · GD -8
Home
Centennial Stadium Field Complex · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–1 2.48 2.18 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
01:30 PM
Real Colorado Olympico
7th · 2-2-8 · GD -20
Away
Highland Heritage Regional Park · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–0 2.53 2.20 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
NUU Avalanche
17th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Centennial Stadium Field Complex · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.27 2.21 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
01:30 PM
Avalanche
10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Centennial Stadium Field Complex · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.27 2.21 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
09:00 AM
NM Rapids SC
16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Centennial Stadium Field Complex · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.27 2.22 Bank it
Sun Dec 13
11:15 AM
El Paso Locomotive FC G08/09
12th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Centennial Stadium Field Complex · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.27 2.22 Bank it
Sat Jan 9
11:15 AM
Pride SC
5th · 5-1-3 · GD +8
Home
Centennial Stadium Field Complex · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
2–1 1.93 2.20 Swing game
Sun Feb 21
TBD
Idaho Rush
13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.00 2.19 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Colorado Storm Central 10712 3115+16 222.20 WWWDL +0.33 -0.08 93% 2.2
2 Colorado EDGE 11731 2911+18 242.18 WWWDW +0.37 -0.23 91% 2.4
3 Arsenal Colorado 11722 3615+21 232.09 WLWWW +0.02 +0.25 77% 3.4
4 Colorado Rush 11722 2713+14 232.09 WWWWW -0.22 +0.13 74% 3.6
5 Pride SC 9513 1911+8 161.78 DLLWL -0.34 +0.47 5% 7.8
6 Colorado Storm South 11335 2129-8 121.09 LLLLW +0.23 +0.07 0% 12.4
7 Real Colorado Olympico 12228 929-20 80.67 WLLDW +0.12 +0.26 0% 15.7
8 Colorado Storm North 11119 1239-27 40.36 LWLLL +0.46 +0.36 0% 17.2
9 CCV STARS 4013 416-12 10.25 LLDL -0.03 -0.32 0% 16.1
10 Avalanche 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.09 ——
11 Boise Thorns 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
12 El Paso Locomotive FC G08/09 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.28 ——
13 Idaho Rush 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.03 ——
14 La Roca FC North 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.01 ——
15 La Roca FC South 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.01 ——
16 NM Rapids SC 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.28 ——
17 NUU Avalanche 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.03 ——
18 Utah Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.01 ——
19 Arizona Soccer Club 4004 313-10 00.00 LLLL -0.03 -0.39 0% 16.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.