Colorado EDGE

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Stargate Charter School, Field 1 ↗ far trip

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.6 for, 0.9 against · 2.69 expected points)

Already played this season: Sat Aug 29 6–1 vs Colorado Storm North (W)

Common opponents: Colorado Rush — we 0–0; they 0–2. Arsenal Colorado — we 1–3, 3–1; they 1–6, 1–2. Colorado Storm Central — we 5–2, 1–1; they 1–5, 1–5. Colorado Storm South — we 2–2, 2–1; they 2–2, 1–5. Pride SC — we 1–0, 5–0; they 0–1. Real Colorado Olympico — we 3–0; they 4–2, 0–3.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Colorado Storm North concede 3.5/game; worst result 1–6 at Colorado EDGE.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs Colorado Rush.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 87% chance; likely score 3–0.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Confidence is low on their side
  Colorado Storm North have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Away game
  Kickoff 09:00 AM at Stargate Charter School.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 09:00 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  Colorado Storm Central sit 1st on 2.20 PPG; we are on 2.18.

  A point moves us above Colorado Storm Central on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Colorado Storm North game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Colorado EDGE – Colorado Storm North) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st 30%
2. 2nd 28%
3. 3rd 22%
4. 4th 12%
5. 5th 5%
6. 6th 2%
7. 7th 1%
8. 8th
9. 9th <1%
10. 10th <1%
11. 11th
12. 12th
13. 13th
14. 14th
15. 15th
16. 16th
17. 17th
18. 18th
19. 19th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).