Arizona Soccer Club

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West Valley Events Complex, Field 8 ↗ far trip

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 2.0 for, 2.2 against · 1.31 expected points)

Common opponents: Colorado Storm South — we 3–4; they 1–2. Pride SC — we 0–6; they 2–6. Colorado Rush — we 0–1; they 0–7. Real Colorado Olympico — we 0–2; they 1–1.

• They struggle to score
  CCV STARS average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 1 of 4.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  CCV STARS concede 4.0/game; worst result 0–7 vs Colorado Rush.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–6 at Pride SC, 0–1 vs Colorado Rush, 0–2 vs Real Colorado Olympico.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 37%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• Away game
  Kickoff 09:00 AM at West Valley Events Complex.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 09:00 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  Utah Surf sit 18th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

  A point moves us above Utah Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the CCV STARS game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arizona Soccer Club – CCV STARS) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 19th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th
6. 6th <1%
7. 7th <1%
8. 8th <1%
9. 9th <1%
10. 10th 1%
11. 11th 1%
12. 12th 1%
13. 13th 3%
14. 14th 7%
15. 15th 21%
16. 16th 19%
17. 17th 22%
18. 18th 25%
19. 19th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.08 PPG if we win out).