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Colorado Storm North

ECNL Regional League Girls · Mountain GU18/19 · 19 teams · Colorado Storm (all teams)

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8th
1-1-9 record · 11 played
0.36 points per game
-27 goal diff · 12–39
LWLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 17.2
+0.46 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Colorado Storm North
8th · 0.36 PPG
vs
Colorado EDGE
2nd · 2.18 PPG

Stargate Charter School, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.9 for, 3.6 against · 0.23 expected points)

Season so farColorado Storm NorthColorado EDGE
Position8th2nd
Record (W-D-L)1-1-97-3-1
Points per game0.362.18
Goals for / game1.12.6
Goals against / game3.51.0
Clean sheets04
Held scoreless31
Form (recent first)L L L W LW D W W W
Biggest win4–2 at Real Colorado Olympico6–1 vs Colorado Storm North
Worst loss1–6 at Colorado EDGE1–3 vs Arsenal Colorado
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.67+1.40
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.46+0.37

Already played this season: Sat Aug 29 1–6 at Colorado EDGE (L)

Common opponents: Colorado Storm Central — we 1–5, 1–5; they 5–2, 1–1. Colorado Storm South — we 2–2, 1–5; they 2–2, 2–1. Pride SC — we 0–1; they 1–0, 5–0. Colorado Rush — we 0–2; they 0–0. Arsenal Colorado — we 1–6, 1–2; they 1–3, 3–1. Real Colorado Olympico — we 4–2, 0–3; they 3–0.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Colorado EDGE concede only 1.0/game with 4 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 at Pride SC, 0–2 vs Colorado Rush, 0–3 vs Real Colorado Olympico.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 5%; a draw (8%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Colorado EDGE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Colorado Storm North – Colorado EDGE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.33 PPG
8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 2
Win
0.58 PPG
8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 2
Draw
0.42 PPG
8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 2
Loss
0.33 PPG
8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
17.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th 4%
  16. 16th 13%
  17. 17th 37%
  18. 18th 45%
  19. 19th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.47 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Colorado Storm Central 2.20 (+1.84) 1st (2.19) 38 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Colorado EDGE 2.18 (+1.82) 2nd (2.17) 38 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Arsenal Colorado 2.09 (+1.73) 3rd (2.04) 36 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Colorado Rush 2.09 (+1.73) 4th (2.02) 36 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Pride SC 1.78 (+1.42) 5th (1.57) 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Colorado Storm South 1.09 (+0.73) 14th (1.12) 17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
7 Real Colorado Olympico 0.67 (+0.31) 15th (0.66) 9 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection

How the results connect

117 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Colorado Storm North to Colorado EDGE through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us
9 even
96 favour them
-3.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–6 2–2 2–2 1–2 3–1 4–2 0–3 1–2 0–2 0–0 0–1 0–1 1–3 1–6 1–5 1–5 1–1 1–5 Colorado Storm North 8th Colorado Storm South 6th Arsenal Colorado 3rd Real Colorado Olymp… 7th Colorado Rush 4th Pride SC 5th Colorado Storm Cent… 1st Colorado EDGE 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 10th 19th Aug 16 Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.36 · 2nd hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Colorado EDGE
2nd · 7-3-1 · GD +18
Home
Stargate Charter School
●●●●● Very tough
5%
0–3 0.23 0.35 Upside
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM
Pride SC
5th · 5-1-3 · GD +8
Home
Stargate Charter School
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–2 0.51 0.36 Upside
Sat Nov 7
TBD
Colorado Rush
4th · 7-2-2 · GD +14
Away
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–3 0.20 0.35 Upside
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
Avalanche
10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Stargate Charter School
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.69 0.38 Upside
Sun Nov 22
01:00 PM
NUU Avalanche
17th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Stargate Charter School
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.69 0.40 Upside
Sat Dec 12
09:00 AM
El Paso Locomotive FC G08/09
12th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Stargate Charter School
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.69 0.41 Upside
Sun Dec 13
01:00 PM
NM Rapids SC
16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Stargate Charter School
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.69 0.43 Upside
Sat Feb 20
TBD
Idaho Rush
13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.48 0.43 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Colorado Storm Central 10712 3115+16 222.20 WWWDL +0.33 -0.08 93% 2.2
2 Colorado EDGE 11731 2911+18 242.18 WWWDW +0.37 -0.23 91% 2.4
3 Arsenal Colorado 11722 3615+21 232.09 WLWWW +0.02 +0.25 77% 3.4
4 Colorado Rush 11722 2713+14 232.09 WWWWW -0.22 +0.13 74% 3.6
5 Pride SC 9513 1911+8 161.78 DLLWL -0.34 +0.47 5% 7.8
6 Colorado Storm South 11335 2129-8 121.09 LLLLW +0.23 +0.07 0% 12.4
7 Real Colorado Olympico 12228 929-20 80.67 WLLDW +0.12 +0.26 0% 15.7
8 Colorado Storm North 11119 1239-27 40.36 LWLLL +0.46 +0.36 0% 17.2
9 CCV STARS 4013 416-12 10.25 LLDL -0.03 -0.32 0% 16.1
10 Avalanche 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.09 ——
11 Boise Thorns 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
12 El Paso Locomotive FC G08/09 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.28 ——
13 Idaho Rush 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.03 ——
14 La Roca FC North 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.01 ——
15 La Roca FC South 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.01 ——
16 NM Rapids SC 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.28 ——
17 NUU Avalanche 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.03 ——
18 Utah Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.01 ——
19 Arizona Soccer Club 4004 313-10 00.00 LLLL -0.03 -0.39 0% 16.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.