Sporting California USA
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU15 · 17 teams · Sporting California USA (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Galway Downs, Field 11 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.4 for, 3.9 against · 0.37 expected points)
| Season so far | Sporting California USA | Empire Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-1 | 4-0-1 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 2.40 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 3.2 |
| Goals against / game | 4.0 | 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D L W | W L W W W |
| Biggest win | 1–0 at Legends FC | 7–1 at LV Heat Surf |
| Worst loss | 0–9 at Legends FC - Del Mar | 0–1 at Beach Futbol Club Black |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.05 | +0.90 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.00 | -1.22 |
Common opponents: Legends FC — we 1–0; they 3–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Empire Surf score 3.2/game — well above the league's 2.0.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–9 at Legends FC - Del Mar.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 9%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Galway Downs.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
San Diego Surf sit 9th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.33.A point moves us above San Diego Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Empire Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting California USA – Empire Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.00 PPG |
11th▼ down 1 | 10th— holds | 12th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.75 PPG |
9th▲ up 1 | 8th▲ up 2 | 9th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.25 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
11th▼ down 1 | 10th— holds | 12th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th <1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th 1%
- 8th 3%
- 9th 5%
- 10th 13%
- 11th 17%
- 12th 23%
- 13th 23%
- 14th 11%
- 15th 3%
- 16th <1%
- 17th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.69 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pateadores | 3.00 (+1.67) | 2nd (2.38) | 44 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
| 2 | Legends FC - Del Mar | 2.60 (+1.27) | 1st (2.45) | 38 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 3 | Rebels SC White | 2.50 (+1.17) | 4th (2.11) | 36 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 4 | CDA Slammers FC Black | 2.40 (+1.07) | 3rd (2.13) | 35 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 5 | Empire Surf | 2.40 (+1.07) | 6th (1.81) | 35 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 6 | West Coast FC White | 2.25 (+0.92) | 7th (1.67) | 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 7 | Rebels SC Blue | 2.00 (+0.67) | 9th (1.57) | 28 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 8 | LA Breakers Red | 2.00 (+0.67) | 5th (1.94) | 28 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 9 | San Diego Surf | 1.67 (+0.34) | 8th (1.63) | A point next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Sporting California USA to Empire Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.13 · 11th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 3 01:45 PM no score posted |
Rebels SC White 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +16 |
Home San Bernardino Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.28 | 1.07 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Empire Surf 5th · 4-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Galway Downs |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.37 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
San Diego Surf 9th · 1-2-0 · GD +5 |
Home San Bernardino Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.67 | 0.89 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 TBD |
CDA Slammers FC Black 4th · 4-0-1 · GD +20 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.14 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 08:00 AM |
Pateadores 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +18 |
Away far trip
Great Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–4 | 0.16 | 0.70 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 01:45 PM |
West Coast FC White 6th · 3-0-1 · GD +5 |
Home San Bernardino Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.75 | 0.71 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
LA Breakers White 12th · 1-0-3 · GD -10 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.90 | 0.83 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
LV Heat Surf 17th · 0-0-6 · GD -38 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
4–1 | 2.48 | 0.98 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
LAFC WHITE 14th · 0-2-3 · GD -8 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
2–2 | 1.04 | 0.98 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Beach Futbol Club Black 11th · 1-2-2 · GD -3 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.22 | 1.00 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
LAFC GOLD 15th · 0-0-5 · GD -19 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
3–2 | 1.79 | 1.06 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
LA Breakers Red 8th · 3-1-1 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–3 | 0.64 | 1.03 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
FC Long Beach 16th · 0-0-5 · GD -19 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.30 | 1.11 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pateadores | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.39 | +0.29 | 93% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Long Beach See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Legends FC - Del Mar | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 1 | +21 | 13 | 2.60 | WWWWD | -0.73 | -0.01 | 97% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LV Heat Surf · Sun Oct 25 vs LAFC GOLD · Sun Nov 15 vs LA Breakers White See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Rebels SC White | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 2 | +16 | 10 | 2.50 | DWWW | -1.99 | +0.52 | 66% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Sporting California USA · Sat Oct 24 vs LA Breakers Red · Sun Nov 1 at Beach Futbol Club Black See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | CDA Slammers FC Black | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 4 | +20 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWLW | -1.47 | +0.52 | 72% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LA Breakers White · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting California USA · Sat Nov 14 at Legends FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Empire Surf | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWLW | -1.22 | +0.53 | 19% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting California USA · Sat Oct 31 at LA Breakers Red · Sat Nov 7 at LA Breakers White See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | West Coast FC White | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | -0.93 | +0.33 | 8% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Long Beach · Sun Nov 1 at LAFC GOLD See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Rebels SC Blue | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 8 | 2.00 | WDWD | -1.34 | +0.44 | 4% | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 vs LV Heat Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs LAFC WHITE See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | LA Breakers Red | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 10 | 2.00 | DLWWW | +0.87 | -0.43 | 34% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Rebels SC White · Sat Oct 31 vs Empire Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Rebels SC Blue See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | San Diego Surf | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 5 | 1.67 | DWD | -1.11 | +0.22 | 7% | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sporting California USA · Sat Nov 7 vs LAFC GOLD · Sat Nov 14 at FC Long Beach See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Sporting California USA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 | 1.33 | WLD | +1.00 | -0.13 | 0% | 11.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Rebels SC White · Sat Oct 24 at Empire Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs San Diego Surf See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Beach Futbol Club Black | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 5 | 1.00 | LLDWD | +1.23 | -0.53 | 0% | 10.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at West Coast FC White · Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores · Sun Nov 1 vs Rebels SC White See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | LA Breakers White | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | +0.42 | -0.03 | 0% | 13.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CDA Slammers FC Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Empire Surf · Sun Nov 15 at Legends FC - Del Mar See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Legends FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 3 | 0.60 | LWLLL | +0.23 | +0.11 | 0% | 11.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Rebels SC Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs Pateadores · Sat Nov 7 at Rebels SC White See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | LAFC WHITE | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 2 | 0.40 | LDLDL | +1.56 | -0.61 | 0% | 11.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC GOLD · Sat Oct 31 at Rebels SC Blue · Sat Nov 7 at Beach Futbol Club Black See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | LAFC GOLD | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.11 | -0.27 | 0% | 15.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LAFC WHITE · Sun Oct 25 at Legends FC - Del Mar · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast FC White See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | FC Long Beach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 20 | -19 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.97 | -0.26 | 0% | 15.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West Coast FC White · Sat Nov 7 vs Pateadores · Sat Nov 14 vs San Diego Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | LV Heat Surf | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 41 | -38 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.29 | -0.35 | 0% | 16.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC - Del Mar · Sun Oct 25 at Rebels SC Blue · Sat Nov 14 vs Beach Futbol Club Black See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.