TableChase Clubs

Pateadores

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU15 · 17 teams · Pateadores Soccer Club (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 39 minutes ago.
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1st
5-0-0 record · 5 played
3.00 points per game
+18 goal diff · 22–4
WWWWWlast 5
93% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.3
-1.39 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:40 PM

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Pateadores
1st · 3.00 PPG
vs
Beach Futbol Club Black
11th · 1.00 PPG

Edison High School, Turf Fld. ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.2 for, 0.7 against · 2.33 expected points)

Season so farPateadoresBeach Futbol Club Black
Position1st11th
Record (W-D-L)5-0-01-2-2
Points per game3.001.00
Goals for / game4.40.4
Goals against / game0.81.0
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)W W W W WD W D L L
Biggest win7–1 vs LV Heat Surf1–0 vs Empire Surf
Worst loss—0–3 vs Legends FC - Del Mar
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.82-0.19
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.39+1.23

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Beach Futbol Club Black average 0.4 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 3 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Hard to break down
    Beach Futbol Club Black concede only 1.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Beach Futbol Club Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pateadores – Beach Futbol Club Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.67 PPG
1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1
Loss
2.50 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

35% finish 1st
93% top 4
7% below the top 4
2.3 average finish
  1. 1st 35%
  2. 2nd 31%
  3. 3rd 17%
  4. 4th 10%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

10 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Pateadores to Beach Futbol Club Black through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
1 even
4 favour them
+0.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–2 0–3 0–1 4–1 0–4 0–0 2–3 7–1 1–7 0–5 1–1 1–7 1–0 2–0 1–1 0–10 3–1 1–1 3–0 Pateadores 1st LAFC WHITE 14th LAFC GOLD 15th LV Heat Surf 17th LA Breakers Red 8th Empire Surf 5th Rebels SC Blue 7th San Diego Surf 9th CDA Slammers FC Bla… 4th Legends FC - Del Mar 2nd Beach Futbol Club B… 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.29 · 6th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
02:40 PM
Beach Futbol Club Black
11th · 1-2-2 · GD -3
Home
Edison High School · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–0 2.33 2.89 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Legends FC
13th · 1-0-4 · GD +1
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.12 2.78 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
10:00 AM
FC Long Beach
16th · 0-0-5 · GD -19
Away far trip
Cabrillo High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
4–0 2.86 2.79 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
08:00 AM
Sporting California USA
10th · 1-1-1 · GD -8
Home
Great Park
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–1 2.79 2.79 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
09:00 AM
Rebels SC Blue
7th · 2-2-0 · GD +5
Away far trip
Southwestern College · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.85 2.69 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Empire Surf
5th · 4-0-1 · GD +10
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.03 2.63 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
CDA Slammers FC Black
4th · 4-0-1 · GD +20
Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–2 1.22 2.52 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Legends FC
13th · 1-0-4 · GD +1
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.36 2.50 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
9th · 1-2-0 · GD +5
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.78 2.45 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
Rebels SC White
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +16
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–1 1.54 2.39 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD
West Coast FC White
6th · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.18 2.38 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Pateadores 5500 224+18 153.00 WWWWW -1.39 +0.29 93% 2.3
2 Legends FC - Del Mar 5410 221+21 132.60 WWWWD -0.73 -0.01 97% 1.9
3 Rebels SC White 4310 182+16 102.50 DWWW -1.99 +0.52 67% 3.9
4 CDA Slammers FC Black 5401 244+20 122.40 WWWLW -1.47 +0.52 73% 3.7
5 Empire Surf 5401 166+10 122.40 WWWLW -1.22 +0.53 18% 6.2
6 West Coast FC White 4301 105+5 92.25 WWWL -0.93 +0.33 8% 7.4
7 Rebels SC Blue 4220 83+5 82.00 WDWD -1.34 +0.44 4% 8.1
8 LA Breakers Red 5311 128+4 102.00 DLWWW +0.87 -0.43 33% 5.3
9 San Diego Surf 3120 72+5 51.67 DWD -1.11 +0.22 6% 7.7
10 Sporting California USA 3111 412-8 41.33 WLD +1.00 -0.13 0% 11.8
11 Beach Futbol Club Black 5122 25-3 51.00 LLDWD +1.23 -0.53 0% 10.3
12 LA Breakers White 4103 111-10 30.75 LLLW +0.42 -0.03 0% 13.7
13 Legends FC 5104 109+1 30.60 LWLLL +0.23 +0.11 0% 11.5
14 LAFC WHITE 5023 715-8 20.40 LDLDL +1.56 -0.61 0% 11.7
15 LAFC GOLD 5005 524-19 00.00 LLLLL +1.11 -0.27 0% 15.1
16 FC Long Beach 5005 120-19 00.00 LLLLL +0.97 -0.26 0% 15.8
17 LV Heat Surf 6006 341-38 00.00 LLLLL +1.29 -0.35 0% 16.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.