TableChase Clubs

Rebels SC White

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU15 · 17 teams · Rebels Soccer Club (all teams)

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3rd
3-1-0 record · 4 played
2.50 points per game
+16 goal diff · 18–2
DWWWlast 4
67% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.9
-1.99 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:15 PM

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Rebels SC White
3rd · 2.50 PPG
vs
LA Breakers Red
8th · 2.00 PPG

Southwestern College, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.7 for, 1.5 against · 2.09 expected points)

Season so farRebels SC WhiteLA Breakers Red
Position3rd8th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-03-1-1
Points per game2.502.00
Goals for / game4.52.4
Goals against / game0.51.6
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W W W DW W W L D
Biggest win9–1 at LV Heat Surf3–0 vs West Coast FC White
Worst loss—0–2 at Pateadores
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.78+0.74
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.99+0.87

Common opponents: LAFC WHITE — we 0–0; they 5–4.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs LAFC WHITE.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 64% / draw 17% / loss 19%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    LA Breakers Red have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    Legends FC - Del Mar sit 2nd on 2.60 PPG; we are on 2.50.

    A win moves us above Legends FC - Del Mar on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LA Breakers Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rebels SC White – LA Breakers Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.60 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.60 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.20 PPG
6th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 3
Loss
2.00 PPG
7th▼ down 4 8th▼ down 5 8th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

8% finish 1st
67% top 4
33% below the top 4
3.9 average finish
  1. 1st 8%
  2. 2nd 15%
  3. 3rd 23%
  4. 4th 22%
  5. 5th 15%
  6. 6th 9%
  7. 7th 6%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Pateadores 3.00 (+0.50) 2nd (2.38) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
2 Legends FC - Del Mar 2.60 (+0.10) 1st (2.45) Win next game

How the results connect

9 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Rebels SC White to LA Breakers Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
5 favour them
-0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 4–5 9–1 0–3 0–3 2–6 2–0 0–5 1–1 4–0 0–3 0–4 5–1 0–5 1–3 1–7 0–10 Rebels SC White 3rd LAFC WHITE 14th LV Heat Surf 17th LA Breakers White 12th FC Long Beach 16th West Coast FC White 6th Pateadores 1st San Diego Surf 9th CDA Slammers FC Bla… 4th LA Breakers Red 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.52 · 2nd hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
01:45 PM
no score posted
Sporting California USA
10th · 1-1-1 · GD -8
Away far trip
San Bernardino Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
4–1 2.64 2.53 Bank it
Sat Oct 24
02:15 PM
LA Breakers Red
8th · 3-1-1 · GD +4
Home
Southwestern College · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.09 2.45 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
05:00 PM
Beach Futbol Club Black
11th · 1-2-2 · GD -3
Away far trip
Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
1–0 2.13 2.41 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
12:15 PM
Legends FC
13th · 1-0-4 · GD +1
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.35 2.40 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
12:45 PM
LAFC GOLD
15th · 0-0-5 · GD -19
Away far trip
Alemany High School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
5–1 2.84 2.45 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
11:00 AM
Empire Surf
5th · 4-0-1 · GD +10
Away far trip
Galway Downs
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.74 2.38 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
02:30 PM
CDA Slammers FC Black
4th · 4-0-1 · GD +20
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.54 2.30 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
11:00 AM
West Coast FC White
6th · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Home
Southwestern College · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.18 2.29 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Rebels SC Blue
7th · 2-2-0 · GD +5
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.10 2.28 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Legends FC - Del Mar
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +21
Away
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.86 2.18 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Pateadores
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +18
Away
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–2 1.26 2.11 Upside
Sat May 8
02:45 PM
San Diego Surf
9th · 1-2-0 · GD +5
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.04 2.11 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Pateadores 5500 224+18 153.00 WWWWW -1.39 +0.29 94% 2.3
2 Legends FC - Del Mar 5410 221+21 132.60 WWWWD -0.73 -0.01 97% 1.8
3 Rebels SC White 4310 182+16 102.50 DWWW -1.99 +0.52 67% 3.9
4 CDA Slammers FC Black 5401 244+20 122.40 WWWLW -1.47 +0.52 72% 3.7
5 Empire Surf 5401 166+10 122.40 WWWLW -1.22 +0.53 19% 6.2
6 West Coast FC White 4301 105+5 92.25 WWWL -0.93 +0.33 6% 7.5
7 Rebels SC Blue 4220 83+5 82.00 WDWD -1.34 +0.44 4% 8.2
8 LA Breakers Red 5311 128+4 102.00 DLWWW +0.87 -0.43 34% 5.2
9 San Diego Surf 3120 72+5 51.67 DWD -1.11 +0.22 7% 7.6
10 Sporting California USA 3111 412-8 41.33 WLD +1.00 -0.13 0% 11.8
11 Beach Futbol Club Black 5122 25-3 51.00 LLDWD +1.23 -0.53 0% 10.2
12 LA Breakers White 4103 111-10 30.75 LLLW +0.42 -0.03 0% 13.8
13 Legends FC 5104 109+1 30.60 LWLLL +0.23 +0.11 0% 11.5
14 LAFC WHITE 5023 715-8 20.40 LDLDL +1.56 -0.61 0% 11.7
15 LAFC GOLD 5005 524-19 00.00 LLLLL +1.11 -0.27 0% 15.1
16 FC Long Beach 5005 120-19 00.00 LLLLL +0.97 -0.26 0% 15.8
17 LV Heat Surf 6006 341-38 00.00 LLLLL +1.29 -0.35 0% 16.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.