TableChase Clubs

West Coast FC White

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU15 · 17 teams · West Coast F.C. (all teams)

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6th
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+5 goal diff · 10–5
WWWLlast 4
8% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.4
-0.93 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:30 PM

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West Coast FC White
6th · 2.25 PPG
vs
FC Long Beach
16th · 0.00 PPG

Orange County Great Park, Field 11 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.5 for, 0.7 against · 2.70 expected points)

Season so farWest Coast FC WhiteFC Long Beach
Position6th16th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-10-0-5
Points per game2.250.00
Goals for / game2.50.2
Goals against / game1.34.0
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless14
Form (recent first)L W W WL L L L L
Biggest win4–0 vs LA Breakers White—
Worst loss0–3 at LA Breakers Red0–8 at Legends FC - Del Mar
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.50-2.12
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.93+0.97

Common opponents: LA Breakers White — we 4–0; they 0–1.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    FC Long Beach average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 4 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    FC Long Beach concede 4.0/game; worst result 0–8 at Legends FC - Del Mar.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at LA Breakers Red.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 87% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    FC Long Beach have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    Empire Surf sit 5th on 2.40 PPG; we are on 2.25.

    A win moves us above Empire Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Long Beach game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West Coast FC White – FC Long Beach) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.40 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Win
2.40 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
6th— holds 7th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 2
Loss
1.80 PPG
8th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
8% top 4
92% below the top 4
7.4 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 3%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 9%
  6. 6th 15%
  7. 7th 20%
  8. 8th 21%
  9. 9th 14%
  10. 10th 9%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Pateadores 3.00 (+0.75) 2nd (2.38) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
2 Legends FC - Del Mar 2.60 (+0.35) 1st (2.45) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
3 Rebels SC White 2.50 (+0.25) 4th (2.11) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
4 CDA Slammers FC Black 2.40 (+0.15) 3rd (2.13) Win next game
5 Empire Surf 2.40 (+0.15) 6th (1.81) Win next game

How the results connect

6 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link West Coast FC White to FC Long Beach through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
2 favour them
+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–0 1–0 3–0 1–9 5–1 0–10 5–0 0–3 3–1 0–4 3–2 0–1 8–0 West Coast FC White 6th LA Breakers White 12th LV Heat Surf 17th LA Breakers Red 8th Legends FC 13th Rebels SC White 3rd CDA Slammers FC Bla… 4th Legends FC - Del Mar 2nd FC Long Beach 16th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.33 · 5th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
12:30 PM
no score posted
Beach Futbol Club Black
11th · 1-2-2 · GD -3
Home
Lake Forest Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–0 1.82 2.16 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
02:30 PM
FC Long Beach
16th · 0-0-5 · GD -19
Home
Orange County Great Park
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
3–0 2.70 2.25 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM
LAFC GOLD
15th · 0-0-5 · GD -19
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–1 2.47 2.29 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
10:45 AM
LAFC WHITE
14th · 0-2-3 · GD -8
Away far trip
Alemany High School · grass
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.87 2.23 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
01:45 PM
Sporting California USA
10th · 1-1-1 · GD -8
Away far trip
San Bernardino Soccer Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.09 2.22 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Empire Surf
5th · 4-0-1 · GD +10
Home
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.34 2.13 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
San Diego Surf
9th · 1-2-0 · GD +5
Home
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.40 2.06 Upside
Sat Apr 10
11:00 AM
Rebels SC White
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +16
Away far trip
Southwestern College · turf
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.66 1.95 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
CDA Slammers FC Black
4th · 4-0-1 · GD +20
Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.86 1.86 Upside
Sat Apr 24
02:30 PM
Rebels SC Blue
7th · 2-2-0 · GD +5
Away far trip
Southwestern College · turf
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.23 1.82 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Legends FC - Del Mar
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +21
Home
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–2 0.59 1.74 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Pateadores
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +18
Away
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.65 1.67 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Pateadores 5500 224+18 153.00 WWWWW -1.39 +0.29 92% 2.3
2 Legends FC - Del Mar 5410 221+21 132.60 WWWWD -0.73 -0.01 97% 1.9
3 Rebels SC White 4310 182+16 102.50 DWWW -1.99 +0.52 68% 3.9
4 CDA Slammers FC Black 5401 244+20 122.40 WWWLW -1.47 +0.52 71% 3.8
5 Empire Surf 5401 166+10 122.40 WWWLW -1.22 +0.53 19% 6.3
6 West Coast FC White 4301 105+5 92.25 WWWL -0.93 +0.33 8% 7.4
7 Rebels SC Blue 4220 83+5 82.00 WDWD -1.34 +0.44 4% 8.1
8 LA Breakers Red 5311 128+4 102.00 DLWWW +0.87 -0.43 34% 5.2
9 San Diego Surf 3120 72+5 51.67 DWD -1.11 +0.22 7% 7.7
10 Sporting California USA 3111 412-8 41.33 WLD +1.00 -0.13 0% 11.8
11 Beach Futbol Club Black 5122 25-3 51.00 LLDWD +1.23 -0.53 0% 10.3
12 LA Breakers White 4103 111-10 30.75 LLLW +0.42 -0.03 0% 13.8
13 Legends FC 5104 109+1 30.60 LWLLL +0.23 +0.11 0% 11.5
14 LAFC WHITE 5023 715-8 20.40 LDLDL +1.56 -0.61 0% 11.7
15 LAFC GOLD 5005 524-19 00.00 LLLLL +1.11 -0.27 0% 15.1
16 FC Long Beach 5005 120-19 00.00 LLLLL +0.97 -0.26 0% 15.8
17 LV Heat Surf 6006 341-38 00.00 LLLLL +1.29 -0.35 0% 16.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.