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PSA North

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU14 · 12 teams · Princeton SA (all teams)

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12th
0-0-6 record · 6 played
0.00 points per game
-37 goal diff · 3–40
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.5
+0.27 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:30 PM

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PSA North
12th · 0.00 PPG
at
Western United Pioneers FC
1st · 3.00 PPG

Roots Athletic Center, Field 4 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–9 (expected goals 0.5 for, 10.6 against · 0.00 expected points)

Season so farPSA NorthWestern United Pioneers FC
Position12th1st
Record (W-D-L)0-0-65-0-0
Points per game0.003.00
Goals for / game0.57.2
Goals against / game6.70.0
Clean sheets05
Held scoreless40
Form (recent first)L L L L LW W W W W
Biggest win—13–0 at PSA North
Worst loss0–13 vs Western United Pioneers FC—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-3.94+4.40
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.27+0.59

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 0–13 vs Western United Pioneers FC (L)

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Western United Pioneers FC score 7.2/game — well above the league's 3.0.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Western United Pioneers FC concede only 0.0/game with 5 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–13 vs Western United Pioneers FC, 0–2 vs FC Dutchmen Surf, 0–5 at Quickstrike FC, 0–6 at WNY Flash Binghamton.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 0%; a draw (0%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Western United Pioneers FC have won 5 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:30 PM at Roots Athletic Center.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    BWP Football Academy sit 11th on 0.20 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above BWP Football Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Western United Pioneers FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PSA North – Western United Pioneers FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds
Win
0.43 PPG		 10th▲ up 2 10th▲ up 2 12th— holds
Draw
0.14 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–9 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 27%
  12. 12th 60%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.18 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Western United Pioneers FC 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.77) 66 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 61 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Brentwood SC 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.42) 66 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 STA MOSC 2.00 (+2.00) 3rd (2.36) 44 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Eastern FC 2.00 (+2.00) 4th (2.03) 44 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
5 Fox Soccer Academy 1.80 (+1.80) 5th (1.85) 40 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
6 FC Dutchmen Surf 1.80 (+1.80) 6th (1.81) 40 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
7 WNY Flash Binghamton 1.57 (+1.57) 7th (1.20) 35 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
8 Quickstrike FC 1.00 (+1.00) 9th (0.84) 22 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
9 Long Island Slammers 0.80 (+0.80) 8th (0.91) 18 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
10 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn 0.20 (+0.20) 10th (0.51) A point next game
11 BWP Football Academy 0.20 (+0.20) 11th (0.41) A point next game

How the results connect

17 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link PSA North to Western United Pioneers FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
17 favour them
-15.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–13 2–3 0–0 0–3 0–2 8–0 0–11 0–1 0–6 4–2 0–5 1–8 1–11 6–0 1–5 0–4 0–5 0–14 PSA North 12th WNY Flash Binghamton 7th FC Dutchmen Surf 6th Quickstrike FC 8th Fox Soccer Academy 5th Eastern FC 4th FC Copa Academy Bro… 10th STA MOSC 3rd Western United Pion… 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.35 · 3rd hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:30 PM		 Western United Pioneers FC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +36		 Away far trip
Roots Athletic Center		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–9 0.00 0.00 Upside
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM		 FC Dutchmen Surf
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +11		 Away far trip
DiCaprio Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.06 0.01 Upside
Sun Nov 8
03:00 PM		 BWP Football Academy
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -30		 Away far trip
Christian Brothers Academy · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 2–2 1.07 0.13 Upside
Sat Nov 14
02:00 PM		 Fox Soccer Academy
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +15		 Home
Essex County College - West Essex Campus		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 1–7 0.05 0.12 Upside
Sun Nov 15
02:00 PM		 Quickstrike FC
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -28		 Home
Cedar Grove High School		 ●●●●○ Tough
25%		 2–3 0.91 0.19 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Brentwood SC
2nd · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–7 0.01 0.18 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 BWP Football Academy
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -30		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
40%		 2–2 1.40 0.27 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 STA MOSC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +36		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–9 0.01 0.25 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Eastern FC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +15		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.05 0.24 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Long Island Slammers
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -8		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.66 0.26 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn
10th · 0-1-4 · GD -27		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
34%		 2–2 1.21 0.32 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD		 Long Island Slammers
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -8		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–3 0.45 0.33 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 Eastern FC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +15		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–6 0.03 0.31 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD		 STA MOSC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +36		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–9 0.00 0.30 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD		 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn
10th · 0-1-4 · GD -27		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
25%		 2–3 0.90 0.32 Upside
Sun May 23
TBD		 Brentwood SC
2nd · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–6 0.02 0.31 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Western United Pioneers FC 5500 360+36 153.00 WWWWW +0.59 -0.67 100% 1.1
2 Brentwood SC 6600 282+26 183.00 WWWWW -1.22 +0.15 99% 2.5
3 STA MOSC 6402 4610+36 122.00 WWWWL +0.62 -0.70 98% 2.7
4 Eastern FC 5311 194+15 102.00 WWWLD -0.26 -0.09 64% 4.3
5 Fox Soccer Academy 5302 2510+15 91.80 LWWLW -0.29 -0.09 24% 5.1
6 FC Dutchmen Surf 5302 132+11 91.80 WLWWL -0.68 +0.11 14% 5.4
7 WNY Flash Binghamton 7322 1423-9 111.57 DWWDW -0.66 +0.40 0% 7.2
8 Quickstrike FC 6204 937-28 61.00 WLLWL +0.91 +0.01 0% 8.7
9 Long Island Slammers 5113 513-8 40.80 LDWLL -0.78 +0.41 0% 8.3
10 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn 5014 330-27 10.20 LDLLL +0.69 +0.21 0% 10.3
11 BWP Football Academy 5014 232-30 10.20 LDLLL +0.83 +0.18 0% 10.9
12 PSA North 6006 340-37 00.00 LLLLL +0.27 +0.35 0% 11.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.