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FC Dutchmen Surf

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU14 · 12 teams · FC Dutchmen Surf (all teams)

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6th
3-0-2 record · 5 played
1.80 points per game
+11 goal diff · 13–2
WLWWLlast 5
16% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.3
-0.68 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:30 PM

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FC Dutchmen Surf
6th · 1.80 PPG
at
Eastern FC
4th · 2.00 PPG

Tibbetts Brook Park #3- 355 Midland Ave Yonkers, N, field 3 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.9 against · 1.09 expected points)

Season so farFC Dutchmen SurfEastern FC
Position6th4th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-23-1-1
Points per game1.802.00
Goals for / game2.63.8
Goals against / game0.40.8
Clean sheets33
Held scoreless22
Form (recent first)L W W L WD L W W W
Biggest win8–0 vs FC Copa Academy Brooklyn10–0 at BWP Football Academy
Worst loss0–1 vs Eastern FC0–3 at Western United Pioneers FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.13+1.75
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.68-0.26

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 0–1 vs Eastern FC (L)

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Eastern FC concede only 0.8/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs Eastern FC, 0–1 vs Brentwood SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 29%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 05:30 PM at Tibbetts Brook Park #3- 355 Midland Ave Yonkers, N.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Fox Soccer Academy sit 5th on 1.80 PPG; we are on 1.80.

    A point moves us above Fox Soccer Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eastern FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dutchmen Surf – Eastern FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.67 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1
Win
2.00 PPG		 4th▲ up 2 4th▲ up 2 5th▲ up 1
Draw
1.67 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1
Loss
1.50 PPG		 7th▼ down 1 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
16% top 4
84% below the top 4
5.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 14%
  5. 5th 32%
  6. 6th 50%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Western United Pioneers FC 3.00 (+1.20) 1st (2.77) 57 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Brentwood SC 3.00 (+1.20) 2nd (2.42) 57 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
3 STA MOSC 2.00 (+0.20) 3rd (2.36) Win next game
4 Eastern FC 2.00 (+0.20) 4th (2.03) Win next game
5 Fox Soccer Academy 1.80 (+0.00) 5th (1.85) A point next game

How the results connect

15 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dutchmen Surf to Eastern FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
1 even
10 favour them
-2.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 8–0 0–11 3–0 2–0 2–3 0–0 0–1 7–1 1–8 6–0 1–1 0–10 4–0 3–0 1–1 8–1 0–6 1–2 1–0 FC Dutchmen Surf 6th FC Copa Academy Bro… 10th PSA North 12th Brentwood SC 2nd Long Island Slammers 9th Western United Pion… 1st WNY Flash Binghamton 7th Quickstrike FC 8th BWP Football Academy 11th Eastern FC 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.11 · 7th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 27
12:00 PM
no score posted		 STA MOSC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +36		 Home
DiCaprio Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–2 0.90 1.65 Upside
Sun Oct 18
03:00 PM
no score posted		 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn
10th · 0-1-4 · GD -27		 Away far trip
Aviator Sports & Events Center		 ●○○○○ Favorable
89%		 3–0 2.74 1.80 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
05:30 PM		 Eastern FC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +15		 Away far trip
Tibbetts Brook Park #3- 355 Midland Ave Yonkers, N		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–1 1.09 1.72 Upside
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM		 PSA North
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -37		 Home
DiCaprio Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 5–0 2.91 1.85 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM		 STA MOSC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +36		 Away far trip
Turkey Brook Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–3 0.63 1.73 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:00 PM		 Long Island Slammers
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -8		 Away far trip
Moriches Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 2–0 2.29 1.78 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 Brentwood SC
2nd · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–2 0.78 1.69 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 WNY Flash Binghamton
7th · 3-2-2 · GD -9		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 2–1 2.22 1.73 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 Fox Soccer Academy
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +15		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
36%		 2–2 1.28 1.70 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Quickstrike FC
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -28		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 4–1 2.68 1.77 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Western United Pioneers FC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +36		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–3 0.37 1.68 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 BWP Football Academy
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -30		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
91%		 4–0 2.79 1.75 Bank it
Sat May 1
11:30 AM		 Western United Pioneers FC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +36		 Home
DiCaprio Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–2 0.53 1.68 Upside
Sat May 8
11:30 AM		 Quickstrike FC
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -28		 Home
DiCaprio Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 4–1 2.81 1.74 Bank it
Sat May 15
11:30 AM		 Fox Soccer Academy
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +15		 Home
DiCaprio Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 2–1 1.59 1.73 Swing game
Sat May 22
11:30 AM		 BWP Football Academy
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -30		 Home
DiCaprio Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 4–0 2.88 1.78 Bank it
Sun May 23
11:30 AM		 WNY Flash Binghamton
7th · 3-2-2 · GD -9		 Home
DiCaprio Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 3–1 2.44 1.81 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Western United Pioneers FC 5500 360+36 153.00 WWWWW +0.59 -0.67 100% 1.1
2 Brentwood SC 6600 282+26 183.00 WWWWW -1.22 +0.15 99% 2.5
3 STA MOSC 6402 4610+36 122.00 WWWWL +0.62 -0.70 98% 2.6
4 Eastern FC 5311 194+15 102.00 WWWLD -0.26 -0.09 64% 4.3
5 Fox Soccer Academy 5302 2510+15 91.80 LWWLW -0.29 -0.09 23% 5.1
6 FC Dutchmen Surf 5302 132+11 91.80 WLWWL -0.68 +0.11 16% 5.3
7 WNY Flash Binghamton 7322 1423-9 111.57 DWWDW -0.66 +0.40 0% 7.2
8 Quickstrike FC 6204 937-28 61.00 WLLWL +0.91 +0.01 0% 8.8
9 Long Island Slammers 5113 513-8 40.80 LDWLL -0.78 +0.41 0% 8.3
10 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn 5014 330-27 10.20 LDLLL +0.69 +0.21 0% 10.3
11 BWP Football Academy 5014 232-30 10.20 LDLLL +0.83 +0.18 0% 11.0
12 PSA North 6006 340-37 00.00 LLLLL +0.27 +0.35 0% 11.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.