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Eastern FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU14 · 12 teams · Eastern FC (all teams)

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4th
3-1-1 record · 5 played
2.00 points per game
+15 goal diff · 19–4
WWWLDlast 5
63% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.3
-0.26 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:30 PM

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Eastern FC
4th · 2.00 PPG
vs
FC Dutchmen Surf
6th · 1.80 PPG

Tibbetts Brook Park #3- 355 Midland Ave Yonkers, N, field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.4 against · 1.68 expected points)

Season so farEastern FCFC Dutchmen Surf
Position4th6th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-13-0-2
Points per game2.001.80
Goals for / game3.82.6
Goals against / game0.80.4
Clean sheets33
Held scoreless22
Form (recent first)D L W W WL W W L W
Biggest win10–0 at BWP Football Academy8–0 vs FC Copa Academy Brooklyn
Worst loss0–3 at Western United Pioneers FC0–1 vs Eastern FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.75+1.13
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.26-0.68

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 1–0 at FC Dutchmen Surf (W)

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    FC Dutchmen Surf concede only 0.4/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at Western United Pioneers FC, 0–0 at WNY Flash Binghamton.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 49% / draw 23% / loss 29%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    STA MOSC sit 3rd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A point moves us above STA MOSC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dutchmen Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Eastern FC – FC Dutchmen Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.83 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Win
2.17 PPG		 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1
Draw
1.83 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Loss
1.67 PPG		 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
63% top 4
37% below the top 4
4.3 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 12%
  4. 4th 49%
  5. 5th 27%
  6. 6th 10%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.77 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Western United Pioneers FC 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.77) 56 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection
2 Brentwood SC 3.00 (+1.00) 2nd (2.42) 56 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
3 STA MOSC 2.00 (+0.00) 3rd (2.36) A point next game

How the results connect

15 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Eastern FC to FC Dutchmen Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us
1 even
4 favour them
+2.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 0–3 11–0 0–8 0–0 3–2 0–2 8–1 1–7 1–0 0–6 10–0 1–1 0–4 1–1 0–3 6–0 1–8 2–1 4–2 Eastern FC 4th Western United Pion… 1st WNY Flash Binghamton 7th Quickstrike FC 8th BWP Football Academy 11th FC Copa Academy Bro… 10th PSA North 12th Brentwood SC 2nd Long Island Slammers 9th FC Dutchmen Surf 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.09 · 10th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 27
04:00 PM
no score posted		 Fox Soccer Academy
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +15		 Home
Cardinal Spellman Rec Center		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
55%		 2–2 1.83 1.97 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
05:30 PM		 FC Dutchmen Surf
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +11		 Home
Tibbetts Brook Park #3- 355 Midland Ave Yonkers, N		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 1–1 1.68 1.93 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 Quickstrike FC
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -28		 Away far trip
Pace University · turf?		 ●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 5–1 2.82 2.04 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
01:15 PM		 BWP Football Academy
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -30		 Home
Tibbetts Brook Park #3- 355 Midland Ave Yonkers, N		 ●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 6–0 2.94 2.14 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 Fox Soccer Academy
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +15		 Away far trip
Hudson Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 2–2 1.50 2.08 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
TBD		 Western United Pioneers FC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +36		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–2 0.60 1.94 Upside
Sun Nov 15
12:00 PM		 WNY Flash Binghamton
7th · 3-2-2 · GD -9		 Home
Tibbetts Brook Park #2		 ●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 3–1 2.63 2.00 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 STA MOSC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +36		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
20%		 2–3 0.75 1.90 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 Long Island Slammers
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -8		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 3–1 2.49 1.95 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 PSA North
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -37		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 5–0 2.93 2.01 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn
10th · 0-1-4 · GD -27		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 5–0 2.86 2.06 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 Brentwood SC
2nd · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
23%		 1–2 0.89 1.99 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD		 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn
10th · 0-1-4 · GD -27		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 5–0 2.92 2.05 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD		 PSA North
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -37		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 6–0 2.96 2.09 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD		 Long Island Slammers
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -8		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 3–0 2.66 2.12 Bank it
Sat May 22
TBD		 Brentwood SC
2nd · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–2 1.14 2.08 Upside
Sun May 23
TBD		 STA MOSC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +36		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
30%		 2–3 1.06 2.03 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Western United Pioneers FC 5500 360+36 153.00 WWWWW +0.59 -0.67 100% 1.1
2 Brentwood SC 6600 282+26 183.00 WWWWW -1.22 +0.15 99% 2.5
3 STA MOSC 6402 4610+36 122.00 WWWWL +0.62 -0.70 99% 2.7
4 Eastern FC 5311 194+15 102.00 WWWLD -0.26 -0.09 63% 4.3
5 Fox Soccer Academy 5302 2510+15 91.80 LWWLW -0.29 -0.09 24% 5.1
6 FC Dutchmen Surf 5302 132+11 91.80 WLWWL -0.68 +0.11 15% 5.4
7 WNY Flash Binghamton 7322 1423-9 111.57 DWWDW -0.66 +0.40 0% 7.2
8 Quickstrike FC 6204 937-28 61.00 WLLWL +0.91 +0.01 0% 8.7
9 Long Island Slammers 5113 513-8 40.80 LDWLL -0.78 +0.41 0% 8.3
10 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn 5014 330-27 10.20 LDLLL +0.69 +0.21 0% 10.3
11 BWP Football Academy 5014 232-30 10.20 LDLLL +0.83 +0.18 0% 10.9
12 PSA North 6006 340-37 00.00 LLLLL +0.27 +0.35 0% 11.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.