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Fox Soccer Academy

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU14 · 12 teams · Fox Soccer Academy Premier (all teams)

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5th
3-0-2 record · 5 played
1.80 points per game
+15 goal diff · 25–10
LWWLWlast 5
23% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.1
-0.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:30 AM

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Fox Soccer Academy
5th · 1.80 PPG
vs
Long Island Slammers
9th · 0.80 PPG

Hudson Sports Complex, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.3 for, 1.3 against · 2.66 expected points)

Season so farFox Soccer AcademyLong Island Slammers
Position5th9th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-21-1-3
Points per game1.800.80
Goals for / game5.01.0
Goals against / game2.02.6
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W L W W LL L W D L
Biggest win11–1 vs PSA North1–0 at BWP Football Academy
Worst loss1–5 vs STA MOSC2–7 vs Fox Soccer Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.69-1.18
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.29-0.78

Already played this season: Sun Oct 18 7–2 at Long Island Slammers (W)

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Long Island Slammers average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 3.0); blanked in 1 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Brentwood SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 86% chance; likely score 4–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • What a win does
    Eastern FC sit 4th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.80.

    A win moves us above Eastern FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Long Island Slammers game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Fox Soccer Academy – Long Island Slammers) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Draw
1.67 PPG		 6th▼ down 1 5th— holds 7th▼ down 2
Loss
1.50 PPG		 7th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
23% top 4
77% below the top 4
5.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 3%
  4. 4th 20%
  5. 5th 40%
  6. 6th 37%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Western United Pioneers FC 3.00 (+1.20) 1st (2.77) 57 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Brentwood SC 3.00 (+1.20) 2nd (2.42) 57 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
3 STA MOSC 2.00 (+0.20) 3rd (2.36) Win next game
4 Eastern FC 2.00 (+0.20) 4th (2.03) Win next game

How the results connect

16 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Fox Soccer Academy to Long Island Slammers through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us
0 favour them
+5.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
7–2 6–0 0–8 3–0 0–2 4–0 1–1 1–0 11–1 0–6 2–4 8–1 0–1 1–1 7–1 2–1 6–0 0–5 1–5 12–0 Fox Soccer Academy 5th FC Copa Academy Bro… 10th Brentwood SC 2nd PSA North 12th STA MOSC 3rd FC Dutchmen Surf 6th WNY Flash Binghamton 7th BWP Football Academy 11th Quickstrike FC 8th Long Island Slammers 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.09 · 9th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 27
04:00 PM
no score posted		 Eastern FC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +15		 Away far trip
Cardinal Spellman Rec Center		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 2–2 1.00 1.67 Upside
Sat Oct 24
11:30 AM		 Long Island Slammers
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -8		 Home
Hudson Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 4–1 2.66 1.81 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM		 Brentwood SC
2nd · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Away far trip
Brentwood State Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–3 0.63 1.66 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn
10th · 0-1-4 · GD -27		 Home
Hudson Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 7–1 2.93 1.80 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 Eastern FC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +15		 Home
Hudson Sports Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 2–2 1.32 1.75 Upside
Sat Nov 14
02:00 PM		 PSA North
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -37		 Away far trip
Essex County College - West Essex Campus		 ●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 7–1 2.93 1.86 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 STA MOSC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +36		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
13%		 2–5 0.48 1.75 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Western United Pioneers FC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +36		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–4 0.22 1.63 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 FC Dutchmen Surf
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +11		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 2–2 1.52 1.62 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 BWP Football Academy
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -30		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 6–1 2.90 1.71 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Quickstrike FC
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -28		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 6–1 2.81 1.77 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 WNY Flash Binghamton
7th · 3-2-2 · GD -9		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 4–1 2.61 1.82 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD		 Quickstrike FC
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -28		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 7–1 2.90 1.88 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD		 BWP Football Academy
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -30		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 7–1 2.95 1.94 Bank it
Sat May 15
11:30 AM		 FC Dutchmen Surf
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +11		 Away far trip
DiCaprio Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 1–2 1.21 1.90 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD		 WNY Flash Binghamton
7th · 3-2-2 · GD -9		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 4–1 2.38 1.93 Bank it
Sun May 23
TBD		 Western United Pioneers FC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +36		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–4 0.36 1.85 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Western United Pioneers FC 5500 360+36 153.00 WWWWW +0.59 -0.67 100% 1.1
2 Brentwood SC 6600 282+26 183.00 WWWWW -1.22 +0.15 99% 2.5
3 STA MOSC 6402 4610+36 122.00 WWWWL +0.62 -0.70 99% 2.6
4 Eastern FC 5311 194+15 102.00 WWWLD -0.26 -0.09 63% 4.3
5 Fox Soccer Academy 5302 2510+15 91.80 LWWLW -0.29 -0.09 23% 5.1
6 FC Dutchmen Surf 5302 132+11 91.80 WLWWL -0.68 +0.11 16% 5.3
7 WNY Flash Binghamton 7322 1423-9 111.57 DWWDW -0.66 +0.40 0% 7.2
8 Quickstrike FC 6204 937-28 61.00 WLLWL +0.91 +0.01 0% 8.8
9 Long Island Slammers 5113 513-8 40.80 LDWLL -0.78 +0.41 0% 8.3
10 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn 5014 330-27 10.20 LDLLL +0.69 +0.21 0% 10.3
11 BWP Football Academy 5014 232-30 10.20 LDLLL +0.83 +0.18 0% 10.9
12 PSA North 6006 340-37 00.00 LLLLL +0.27 +0.35 0% 11.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.