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WNY Flash Binghamton

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU14 · 12 teams · WNY Flash Academy (all teams)

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7th
3-2-2 record · 7 played
1.57 points per game
-9 goal diff · 14–23
DWWDWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.2
-0.66 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:30 PM

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WNY Flash Binghamton
7th · 1.57 PPG
vs
STA MOSC
3rd · 2.00 PPG

Marywood University Athletics, Grass Field ↗ · grass

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–6 (expected goals 1.6 for, 6.2 against · 0.13 expected points)

Season so farWNY Flash BinghamtonSTA MOSC
Position7th3rd
Record (W-D-L)3-2-24-0-2
Points per game1.572.00
Goals for / game2.07.7
Goals against / game3.31.7
Clean sheets23
Held scoreless32
Form (recent first)W D W W DL W W W W
Biggest win6–0 vs PSA North15–0 at Quickstrike FC
Worst loss0–14 at STA MOSC0–5 vs Western United Pioneers FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.95+4.06
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.66+0.62

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 0–14 at STA MOSC (L)

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    STA MOSC score 7.7/game — well above the league's 3.0.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–14 at STA MOSC, 0–4 at Brentwood SC, 0–0 vs Eastern FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 3%; a draw (4%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Grass field
    Venue listed as "Grass Field" at Marywood University Athletics.

    If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the STA MOSC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (WNY Flash Binghamton – STA MOSC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.38 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2
Win
1.75 PPG		 6th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 3 6th▲ up 1
Draw
1.50 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Loss
1.38 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–6 loss we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
7.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 79%
  8. 8th 15%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.55 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Western United Pioneers FC 3.00 (+1.43) 1st (2.77) 55 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Brentwood SC 3.00 (+1.43) 2nd (2.42) 55 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
3 STA MOSC 2.00 (+0.43) 3rd (2.36) 33 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
4 Eastern FC 2.00 (+0.43) 4th (2.03) 33 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
5 Fox Soccer Academy 1.80 (+0.23) 5th (1.85) 29 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
6 FC Dutchmen Surf 1.80 (+0.23) 6th (1.81) 29 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection

How the results connect

24 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link WNY Flash Binghamton to STA MOSC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
22 favour them
-8.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–14 0–0 0–3 4–0 6–0 0–13 5–0 10–0 0–12 4–2 0–11 0–4 2–0 1–5 3–2 1–11 8–1 0–15 WNY Flash Binghamton 7th Eastern FC 4th PSA North 12th FC Copa Academy Bro… 10th Brentwood SC 2nd Western United Pion… 1st BWP Football Academy 11th Fox Soccer Academy 5th Quickstrike FC 8th STA MOSC 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.40 · 2nd hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
02:30 PM		 STA MOSC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +36		 Home
Marywood University Athletics · grass		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 1–6 0.13 1.39 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:30 PM		 Long Island Slammers
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -8		 Home
Marywood University Athletics · grass		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 2–1 1.74 1.43 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
02:30 PM		 Brentwood SC
2nd · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Home
Marywood University Athletics · grass		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–3 0.25 1.31 Upside
Sat Nov 14
TBD		 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn
10th · 0-1-4 · GD -27		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 3–1 2.14 1.39 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
12:00 PM		 Eastern FC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +15		 Away far trip
Tibbetts Brook Park #2		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–3 0.28 1.30 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 FC Dutchmen Surf
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +11		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–2 0.62 1.24 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Western United Pioneers FC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +36		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–6 0.03 1.16 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 BWP Football Academy
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -30		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 3–1 2.52 1.25 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 Fox Soccer Academy
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +15		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
8%		 1–4 0.31 1.19 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Quickstrike FC
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -28		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 3–2 1.92 1.23 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD		 BWP Football Academy
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -30		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 3–1 2.28 1.29 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD		 Western United Pioneers FC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +36		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.06 1.23 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD		 Quickstrike FC
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -28		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 3–2 2.24 1.28 Bank it
Sat May 22
TBD		 Fox Soccer Academy
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +15		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–4 0.51 1.24 Upside
Sun May 23
11:30 AM		 FC Dutchmen Surf
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +11		 Away far trip
DiCaprio Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–3 0.43 1.20 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Western United Pioneers FC 5500 360+36 153.00 WWWWW +0.59 -0.67 100% 1.1
2 Brentwood SC 6600 282+26 183.00 WWWWW -1.22 +0.15 99% 2.5
3 STA MOSC 6402 4610+36 122.00 WWWWL +0.62 -0.70 98% 2.7
4 Eastern FC 5311 194+15 102.00 WWWLD -0.26 -0.09 64% 4.3
5 Fox Soccer Academy 5302 2510+15 91.80 LWWLW -0.29 -0.09 23% 5.1
6 FC Dutchmen Surf 5302 132+11 91.80 WLWWL -0.68 +0.11 16% 5.3
7 WNY Flash Binghamton 7322 1423-9 111.57 DWWDW -0.66 +0.40 0% 7.2
8 Quickstrike FC 6204 937-28 61.00 WLLWL +0.91 +0.01 0% 8.7
9 Long Island Slammers 5113 513-8 40.80 LDWLL -0.78 +0.41 0% 8.3
10 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn 5014 330-27 10.20 LDLLL +0.69 +0.21 0% 10.4
11 BWP Football Academy 5014 232-30 10.20 LDLLL +0.83 +0.18 0% 10.9
12 PSA North 6006 340-37 00.00 LLLLL +0.27 +0.35 0% 11.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.