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Long Island Slammers

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU14 · 12 teams · Long Island Slammers (all teams)

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9th
1-1-3 record · 5 played
0.80 points per game
-8 goal diff · 5–13
LDWLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.3
-0.78 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:30 AM

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Long Island Slammers
9th · 0.80 PPG
at
Fox Soccer Academy
5th · 1.80 PPG

Hudson Sports Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.3 for, 4.3 against · 0.26 expected points)

Season so farLong Island SlammersFox Soccer Academy
Position9th5th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-33-0-2
Points per game0.801.80
Goals for / game1.05.0
Goals against / game2.62.0
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L L W D LW L W W L
Biggest win1–0 at BWP Football Academy11–1 vs PSA North
Worst loss2–7 vs Fox Soccer Academy1–5 vs STA MOSC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.18+1.69
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.78-0.29

Already played this season: Sun Oct 18 2–7 vs Fox Soccer Academy (L)

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Fox Soccer Academy score 5.0/game — well above the league's 3.0.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at FC Dutchmen Surf.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 6%; a draw (8%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:30 AM at Hudson Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Quickstrike FC sit 8th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.80.

    A point moves us above Quickstrike FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Fox Soccer Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Long Island Slammers – Fox Soccer Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.67 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 10th▼ down 1
Win
1.17 PPG		 8th▲ up 1 9th— holds 9th— holds
Draw
0.83 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 10th▼ down 1
Loss
0.67 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 10th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th 13%
  8. 8th 52%
  9. 9th 30%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Western United Pioneers FC 3.00 (+2.20) 1st (2.77) 62 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 57 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Brentwood SC 3.00 (+2.20) 2nd (2.42) 62 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
3 STA MOSC 2.00 (+1.20) 3rd (2.36) 40 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
4 Eastern FC 2.00 (+1.20) 4th (2.03) 40 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
5 Fox Soccer Academy 1.80 (+1.00) 5th (1.85) 36 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
6 FC Dutchmen Surf 1.80 (+1.00) 6th (1.81) 36 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
7 WNY Flash Binghamton 1.57 (+0.77) 7th (1.20) 31 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
8 Quickstrike FC 1.00 (+0.20) 9th (0.84) A point next game

How the results connect

16 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Long Island Slammers to Fox Soccer Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
16 favour them
-5.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–7 0–3 8–0 0–6 0–1 2–0 1–1 0–4 1–0 1–8 4–2 6–0 1–11 1–1 1–2 1–7 0–6 5–0 0–12 5–1 Long Island Slammers 9th FC Dutchmen Surf 6th WNY Flash Binghamton 7th BWP Football Academy 11th Quickstrike FC 8th FC Copa Academy Bro… 10th Brentwood SC 2nd PSA North 12th STA MOSC 3rd Fox Soccer Academy 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.41 · 1st hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:30 AM		 Fox Soccer Academy
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +15		 Away far trip
Hudson Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–4 0.26 0.71 Upside
Sun Oct 25
03:00 PM		 Quickstrike FC
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -28		 Home
Moriches Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 3–1 1.97 0.89 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
02:30 PM		 WNY Flash Binghamton
7th · 3-2-2 · GD -9		 Away far trip
Marywood University Athletics · grass		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.06 0.91 Upside
Sat Nov 7
12:30 PM		 Western United Pioneers FC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +36		 Home
Moriches Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.06 0.82 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM		 Western United Pioneers FC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +36		 Away far trip
Lusitano Stadium · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.03 0.74 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:00 PM		 FC Dutchmen Surf
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +11		 Home
Moriches Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 0–2 0.55 0.72 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 BWP Football Academy
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -30		 Home
Moriches Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 3–1 2.29 0.85 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn
10th · 0-1-4 · GD -27		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 2–1 1.89 0.93 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 Eastern FC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +15		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.39 0.89 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Brentwood SC
2nd · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–4 0.14 0.84 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 PSA North
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -37		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 2–1 2.18 0.93 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 STA MOSC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +36		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.11 0.88 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD		 PSA North
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -37		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 3–1 2.42 0.96 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD		 Brentwood SC
2nd · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–3 0.23 0.93 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD		 Eastern FC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +15		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–3 0.25 0.89 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD		 STA MOSC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +36		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 1–6 0.06 0.85 Upside
Sun May 23
TBD		 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn
10th · 0-1-4 · GD -27		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 2–1 2.17 0.91 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Western United Pioneers FC 5500 360+36 153.00 WWWWW +0.59 -0.67 100% 1.1
2 Brentwood SC 6600 282+26 183.00 WWWWW -1.22 +0.15 99% 2.5
3 STA MOSC 6402 4610+36 122.00 WWWWL +0.62 -0.70 98% 2.6
4 Eastern FC 5311 194+15 102.00 WWWLD -0.26 -0.09 64% 4.3
5 Fox Soccer Academy 5302 2510+15 91.80 LWWLW -0.29 -0.09 23% 5.1
6 FC Dutchmen Surf 5302 132+11 91.80 WLWWL -0.68 +0.11 16% 5.3
7 WNY Flash Binghamton 7322 1423-9 111.57 DWWDW -0.66 +0.40 0% 7.2
8 Quickstrike FC 6204 937-28 61.00 WLLWL +0.91 +0.01 0% 8.8
9 Long Island Slammers 5113 513-8 40.80 LDWLL -0.78 +0.41 0% 8.3
10 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn 5014 330-27 10.20 LDLLL +0.69 +0.21 0% 10.4
11 BWP Football Academy 5014 232-30 10.20 LDLLL +0.83 +0.18 0% 10.9
12 PSA North 6006 340-37 00.00 LLLLL +0.27 +0.35 0% 11.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.