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BWP Football Academy

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU14 · 12 teams · BWP Football Academy (all teams)

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11th
0-1-4 record · 5 played
0.20 points per game
-30 goal diff · 2–32
LDLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.9
+0.83 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM

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BWP Football Academy
11th · 0.20 PPG
at
FC Copa Academy Brooklyn
10th · 0.20 PPG

Aviator Sports & Events Center, Field 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.2 for, 2.9 against · 1.07 expected points)

Season so farBWP Football AcademyFC Copa Academy Brooklyn
Position11th10th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-40-1-4
Points per game0.200.20
Goals for / game0.40.6
Goals against / game6.46.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless33
Form (recent first)L L L D LL L L D L
Biggest win——
Worst loss0–12 at STA MOSC0–11 at Western United Pioneers FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-3.45-3.08
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.83+0.69

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 1–1 vs FC Copa Academy Brooklyn (D)

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    FC Copa Academy Brooklyn average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 3.0); blanked in 3 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    FC Copa Academy Brooklyn concede 6.0/game; worst result 0–11 at Western United Pioneers FC.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–10 vs Eastern FC, 0–12 at STA MOSC, 0–1 vs Long Island Slammers.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 30%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    FC Copa Academy Brooklyn have lost 3 straight (form: LDLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:00 PM at Aviator Sports & Events Center.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    FC Copa Academy Brooklyn sit 10th on 0.20 PPG; we are on 0.20.

    A point moves us above FC Copa Academy Brooklyn on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Copa Academy Brooklyn game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BWP Football Academy – FC Copa Academy Brooklyn) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.33 PPG
11th— holds 10th▲ up 1 12th▼ down 1
Win
0.67 PPG
10th▲ up 1 10th▲ up 1 10th▲ up 1
Draw
0.33 PPG
11th— holds 10th▲ up 1 12th▼ down 1
Loss
0.17 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 25%
  11. 11th 43%
  12. 12th 28%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.36 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Western United Pioneers FC 3.00 (+2.80) 1st (2.77) 65 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 60 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Brentwood SC 3.00 (+2.80) 2nd (2.42) 65 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 STA MOSC 2.00 (+1.80) 3rd (2.36) 43 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection
4 Eastern FC 2.00 (+1.80) 4th (2.03) 43 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
5 Fox Soccer Academy 1.80 (+1.60) 5th (1.85) 39 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
6 FC Dutchmen Surf 1.80 (+1.60) 6th (1.81) 39 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
7 WNY Flash Binghamton 1.57 (+1.37) 7th (1.20) 34 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
8 Quickstrike FC 1.00 (+0.80) 9th (0.84) 21 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
9 Long Island Slammers 0.80 (+0.60) 8th (0.91) 17 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
10 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn 0.20 (+0.00) 10th (0.51) Already ahead

How the results connect

14 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link BWP Football Academy to FC Copa Academy Brooklyn through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
2 even
7 favour them
-0.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 0–1 2–7 6–0 1–8 2–0 4–0 4–2 1–1 0–10 1–0 8–0 1–0 0–12 5–1 0–3 11–0 0–3 14–0 0–4 BWP Football Academy 11th Long Island Slammers 9th Brentwood SC 2nd Eastern FC 4th STA MOSC 3rd Fox Soccer Academy 5th WNY Flash Binghamton 7th FC Dutchmen Surf 6th Western United Pion… 1st FC Copa Academy Bro… 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.18 · 5th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
03:00 PM
FC Copa Academy Brooklyn
10th · 0-1-4 · GD -27
Away far trip
Aviator Sports & Events Center
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–2 1.07 0.34 Upside
Sun Nov 1
04:00 PM
STA MOSC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +36
Home
Christian Brothers Academy · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
0%
1–9 0.01 0.30 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:15 PM
Eastern FC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +15
Away far trip
Tibbetts Brook Park #3- 355 Midland Ave Yonkers, N
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–6 0.04 0.26 Upside
Sun Nov 8
03:00 PM
PSA North
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -37
Home
Christian Brothers Academy · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–2 1.75 0.43 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
01:30 PM
Brentwood SC
2nd · 6-0-0 · GD +26
Away far trip
Brentwood State Park
●●●●● Very tough
0%
0–6 0.02 0.39 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
Long Island Slammers
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -8
Away far trip
Moriches Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.56 0.40 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD
Quickstrike FC
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -28
Home
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–3 1.09 0.46 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD
PSA North
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -37
Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.42 0.53 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Western United Pioneers FC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +36
Away
●●●●● Very tough
0%
0–9 0.00 0.50 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Fox Soccer Academy
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +15
Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–6 0.07 0.47 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD
WNY Flash Binghamton
7th · 3-2-2 · GD -9
Away
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.38 0.46 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
FC Dutchmen Surf
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +11
Home
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–4 0.15 0.44 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
WNY Flash Binghamton
7th · 3-2-2 · GD -9
Home
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.58 0.45 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Fox Soccer Academy
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +15
Away
●●●●● Very tough
1%
1–7 0.04 0.43 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
Western United Pioneers FC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +36
Home
●●●●● Very tough
0%
0–8 0.00 0.41 Upside
Sat May 22
11:30 AM
FC Dutchmen Surf
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +11
Away far trip
DiCaprio Park
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–4 0.09 0.39 Upside
Sun May 23
TBD
Quickstrike FC
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -28
Away
●●●●● Very tough
21%
2–3 0.77 0.41 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Western United Pioneers FC 5500 360+36 153.00 WWWWW +0.59 -0.67 100% 1.1
2 Brentwood SC 6600 282+26 183.00 WWWWW -1.22 +0.15 99% 2.5
3 STA MOSC 6402 4610+36 122.00 WWWWL +0.62 -0.70 98% 2.6
4 Eastern FC 5311 194+15 102.00 WWWLD -0.26 -0.09 64% 4.3
5 Fox Soccer Academy 5302 2510+15 91.80 LWWLW -0.29 -0.09 23% 5.1
6 FC Dutchmen Surf 5302 132+11 91.80 WLWWL -0.68 +0.11 16% 5.3
7 WNY Flash Binghamton 7322 1423-9 111.57 DWWDW -0.66 +0.40 0% 7.2
8 Quickstrike FC 6204 937-28 61.00 WLLWL +0.91 +0.01 0% 8.8
9 Long Island Slammers 5113 513-8 40.80 LDWLL -0.78 +0.41 0% 8.3
10 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn 5014 330-27 10.20 LDLLL +0.69 +0.21 0% 10.4
11 BWP Football Academy 5014 232-30 10.20 LDLLL +0.83 +0.18 0% 10.9
12 PSA North 6006 340-37 00.00 LLLLL +0.27 +0.35 0% 11.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.