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Brentwood SC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU14 · 12 teams · Brentwood SC (all teams)

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2nd
6-0-0 record · 6 played
3.00 points per game
+26 goal diff · 28–2
WWWWWlast 5
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.5
-1.22 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM

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Brentwood SC
2nd · 3.00 PPG
vs
Fox Soccer Academy
5th · 1.80 PPG

Brentwood State Park, field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.4 for, 1.7 against · 2.23 expected points)

Season so farBrentwood SCFox Soccer Academy
Position2nd5th
Record (W-D-L)6-0-03-0-2
Points per game3.001.80
Goals for / game4.75.0
Goals against / game0.32.0
Clean sheets41
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W W W WW L W W L
Biggest win8–1 at BWP Football Academy11–1 vs PSA North
Worst loss—1–5 vs STA MOSC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.53+1.69
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.22-0.29

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 2–0 at Fox Soccer Academy (W)

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Fox Soccer Academy score 5.0/game — well above the league's 3.0.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 70% / draw 14% / loss 16%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    Western United Pioneers FC sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above Western United Pioneers FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Fox Soccer Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Brentwood SC – Fox Soccer Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.71 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.57 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

6% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
2.5 average finish
  1. 1st 6%
  2. 2nd 48%
  3. 3rd 38%
  4. 4th 7%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Western United Pioneers FC 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.77) Win next game

How the results connect

18 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Brentwood SC to Fox Soccer Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
2 even
8 favour them
-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 4–0 4–2 0–6 6–0 1–11 6–0 5–0 1–0 3–0 2–7 8–1 1–1 0–12 5–1 0–1 1–1 7–1 2–1 Brentwood SC 2nd WNY Flash Binghamton 7th Quickstrike FC 8th FC Dutchmen Surf 6th BWP Football Academy 11th FC Copa Academy Bro… 10th PSA North 12th Long Island Slammers 9th STA MOSC 3rd Fox Soccer Academy 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.15 · 6th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 26
03:30 PM
no score posted
Western United Pioneers FC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +36
Home
Brentwood State Park
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–2 0.94 2.71 Upside
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM
Fox Soccer Academy
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +15
Home
Brentwood State Park
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.23 2.65 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
02:00 PM
Western United Pioneers FC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +36
Away far trip
Lusitano Stadium · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.70 2.43 Upside
Sun Nov 8
02:30 PM
WNY Flash Binghamton
7th · 3-2-2 · GD -9
Away far trip
Marywood University Athletics · grass
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–1 2.67 2.45 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
01:30 PM
BWP Football Academy
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -30
Home
Brentwood State Park
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
6–0 2.98 2.50 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
TBD
FC Dutchmen Surf
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +11
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 2.02 2.46 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD
PSA North
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -37
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
7–0 2.98 2.50 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
TBD
FC Copa Academy Brooklyn
10th · 0-1-4 · GD -27
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
5–0 2.93 2.53 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Long Island Slammers
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -8
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–0 2.80 2.55 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD
STA MOSC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +36
Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–2 1.20 2.47 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Eastern FC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +15
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.92 2.43 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
STA MOSC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +36
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.54 2.38 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD
Long Island Slammers
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -8
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
3–0 2.69 2.40 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD
FC Copa Academy Brooklyn
10th · 0-1-4 · GD -27
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–0 2.97 2.43 Bank it
Sat May 22
TBD
Eastern FC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +15
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–1 1.64 2.39 Swing game
Sun May 23
TBD
PSA North
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -37
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
6–0 2.97 2.42 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Western United Pioneers FC 5500 360+36 153.00 WWWWW +0.59 -0.67 100% 1.1
2 Brentwood SC 6600 282+26 183.00 WWWWW -1.22 +0.15 99% 2.5
3 STA MOSC 6402 4610+36 122.00 WWWWL +0.62 -0.70 99% 2.7
4 Eastern FC 5311 194+15 102.00 WWWLD -0.26 -0.09 63% 4.3
5 Fox Soccer Academy 5302 2510+15 91.80 LWWLW -0.29 -0.09 24% 5.1
6 FC Dutchmen Surf 5302 132+11 91.80 WLWWL -0.68 +0.11 15% 5.4
7 WNY Flash Binghamton 7322 1423-9 111.57 DWWDW -0.66 +0.40 0% 7.2
8 Quickstrike FC 6204 937-28 61.00 WLLWL +0.91 +0.01 0% 8.7
9 Long Island Slammers 5113 513-8 40.80 LDWLL -0.78 +0.41 0% 8.3
10 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn 5014 330-27 10.20 LDLLL +0.69 +0.21 0% 10.3
11 BWP Football Academy 5014 232-30 10.20 LDLLL +0.83 +0.18 0% 10.9
12 PSA North 6006 340-37 00.00 LLLLL +0.27 +0.35 0% 11.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.