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FC Dallas Youth Red NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU14 · 24 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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5th
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+6 goal diff · 11–5
WWWLlast 4
26% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.3
-0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:40 AM

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FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
5th · 2.25 PPG
vs
Fever United FC NTX
11th · 1.83 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 6 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.2 against · 1.34 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas Youth Red NTXFever United FC NTX
Position5th11th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-13-2-1
Points per game2.251.83
Goals for / game2.84.0
Goals against / game1.31.5
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L W W WL D W W D
Biggest win5–0 at FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX7–0 vs Sting NTX
Worst loss1–3 at SOLAR RED NTX3–4 at SOLAR RED NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.82+1.40
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.08-0.61

Common opponents: Dallas Texans Red NTX — we 3–1; they 5–2. SOLAR RED NTX — we 1–3; they 3–4.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Fever United FC NTX score 4.0/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 38%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX sit 4th on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.25.

    A point moves us above Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Fever United FC NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth Red NTX – Fever United FC NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.00 PPG
9th▼ down 4 8th▼ down 3 10th▼ down 5
Win
2.40 PPG
4th▲ up 1 5th— holds 5th— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
10th▼ down 5 8th▼ down 3 10th▼ down 5
Loss
1.80 PPG
11th▼ down 6 11th▼ down 6 13th▼ down 8

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
26% top 4
74% below the top 4
7.3 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 6%
  3. 3rd 9%
  4. 4th 10%
  5. 5th 11%
  6. 6th 10%
  7. 7th 8%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 8%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 6%
  12. 12th 6%
  13. 13th 4%
  14. 14th 3%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th <1%
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.80 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.71) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 2.60 (+0.35) 5th (2.03) 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
3 NTX Celtic FC NTX 2.40 (+0.15) 3rd (2.12) Win next game
4 Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX 2.25 (+0.00) 2nd (2.21) A point next game

How the results connect

6 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth Red NTX to Fever United FC NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
3 favour them
+0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 4–3 3–1 2–5 5–0 1–5 0–3 1–1 1–2 2–2 8–0 FC Dallas Youth Red… 5th SOLAR RED NTX 8th Dallas Texans Red N… 21st FC Dallas Youth Nav… 22nd Sting WTX NTX 18th Nido Dallas White N… 6th Fever United FC NTX 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 12th 24th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 14th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:40 AM
Fever United FC NTX
11th · 3-2-1 · GD +15
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–2 1.34 2.07 Upside
Sun Oct 25
11:40 AM
Nido Dallas White NTX
6th · 4-1-1 · GD +5
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
1–1 1.53 1.98 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
03:20 PM
Atletico Dallas Youth NTX
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +13
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.31 1.88 Upside
Sat Nov 7
03:20 PM
DKSC WHITE NTX
10th · 3-1-1 · GD +6
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–1 1.63 1.85 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
01:30 PM
FC Dallas Youth White NTX
16th · 2-0-3 · GD -9
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.20 1.89 Swing game
Sat Feb 20
08:00 AM
Dallas Texans NTX
13th · 2-2-1 · GD +1
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
1–1 1.82 1.88 Swing game
Sat Feb 27
09:50 AM
DKSC NTX
20th · 1-0-4 · GD -12
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
4–2 2.27 1.92 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
11:40 AM
Kernow Storm FC NTX
7th · 4-0-2 · GD +15
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.41 1.88 Upside
Sat Apr 3
03:20 PM
SOLAR BLUE NTX
15th · 2-0-2 · GD +1
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.79 1.87 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
08:00 AM
Sting WTX NTX
18th · 1-1-3 · GD -15
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
3–1 2.39 1.91 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
03:20 PM
Sting NTX
19th · 1-0-3 · GD -13
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.47 1.94 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5500 313+28 153.00 WWWWW -0.76 -0.21 99% 1.2
2 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 5410 163+13 132.60 WWWWD -1.68 +0.50 33% 6.4
3 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5401 205+15 122.40 WWLWW -1.43 +0.30 51% 5.0
4 Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX 4301 152+13 92.25 WWWL -0.26 +0.01 65% 4.2
5 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 4301 115+6 92.25 WWWL -0.08 +0.01 26% 7.3
6 Nido Dallas White NTX 6411 138+5 132.17 LWWWW +0.76 -0.84 43% 5.4
7 Kernow Storm FC NTX 6402 2510+15 122.00 LLWWW -0.87 +0.45 12% 8.7
8 SOLAR RED NTX 6402 2411+13 122.00 WWLWW +0.04 -0.39 33% 6.2
9 FC Dallas Youth NTX 5311 186+12 102.00 LWWWD -0.72 +0.26 21% 7.3
10 DKSC WHITE NTX 5311 126+6 102.00 DWLWW -0.37 +0.13 6% 10.3
11 Fever United FC NTX 6321 249+15 111.83 DWWDL -0.61 +0.77 6% 9.8
12 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 6312 1611+5 101.67 LLWDW -0.34 +0.19 1% 12.1
13 Dallas Texans NTX 5221 87+1 81.60 DLWWD +0.23 -0.08 1% 12.2
14 Dallas Legends NTX 4202 87+1 61.50 LWWL +0.10 -0.31 2% 11.9
15 SOLAR BLUE NTX 4202 76+1 61.50 WLWL +0.67 +0.13 1% 12.5
16 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5203 413-9 61.20 LWLWL +0.14 +0.08 0% 17.4
17 SOLAR WHITE NTX 5113 822-14 40.80 LLLDW -0.38 +0.00 0% 18.5
18 Sting WTX NTX 5113 520-15 40.80 LLLDW +0.85 +0.12 0% 19.6
19 Sting NTX 4103 417-13 30.75 WLLL +0.53 -0.21 0% 19.2
20 DKSC NTX 5104 1426-12 30.60 LLWLL +0.91 -0.26 0% 18.0
21 Dallas Texans Red NTX 6105 921-12 30.50 LLLLL +0.74 -0.29 0% 18.5
22 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 7016 730-23 10.14 LDLLL +0.72 +0.15 0% 22.4
23 Sting Brave NTX 6006 120-19 00.00 LLLLL +0.43 -0.01 0% 22.7
24 Sting Bold NTX 5005 234-32 00.00 LLLLL +0.72 +0.02 0% 23.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.32 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.