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Atletico Dallas Youth NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU14 · 24 teams · Atletico Dallas Youth (all teams)

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2nd
4-1-0 record · 5 played
2.60 points per game
+13 goal diff · 16–3
WWWWDlast 5
33% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.4
-1.68 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:40 AM

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Atletico Dallas Youth NTX
2nd · 2.60 PPG
vs
SOLAR RED NTX
8th · 2.00 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 4 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.9 against · 1.63 expected points)

Season so farAtletico Dallas Youth NTXSOLAR RED NTX
Position2nd8th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-04-0-2
Points per game2.602.00
Goals for / game3.24.0
Goals against / game0.61.8
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)D W W W WW W L W W
Biggest win6–0 vs Sting Bold NTX8–0 at Sting WTX NTX
Worst loss—3–4 vs Nido Dallas Blue NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.13+1.42
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.68+0.04

Common opponents: FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX — we 1–1; they 5–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    SOLAR RED NTX score 4.0/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 48% / draw 20% / loss 33%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SOLAR RED NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Atletico Dallas Youth NTX – SOLAR RED NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.67 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.67 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 3
Loss
2.17 PPG
5th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
33% top 4
67% below the top 4
6.4 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 10%
  3. 3rd 11%
  4. 4th 11%
  5. 5th 11%
  6. 6th 10%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 9%
  9. 9th 8%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 5%
  12. 12th 3%
  13. 13th 2%
  14. 14th 2%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.87 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 3.00 (+0.40) 1st (2.71) 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection

How the results connect

7 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Atletico Dallas Youth NTX to SOLAR RED NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
2 even
4 favour them
-3.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 1–5 5–1 1–3 1–3 2–5 3–4 3–1 1–2 2–1 0–5 1–0 0–7 0–3 0–8 Atletico Dallas You… 2nd FC Dallas Youth Nav… 22nd Dallas Texans Red N… 21st SOLAR BLUE NTX 15th Sting NTX 19th FC Dallas Youth Red… 5th Fever United FC NTX 11th Nido Dallas White N… 6th Sting WTX NTX 18th SOLAR RED NTX 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 12th 24th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.50 · 2nd hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:40 AM
SOLAR RED NTX
8th · 4-0-2 · GD +13
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–1 1.63 2.44 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
03:20 PM
FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +6
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.46 2.30 Upside
Sat Nov 7
03:20 PM
Fever United FC NTX
11th · 3-2-1 · GD +15
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–2 1.28 2.17 Upside
Sun Nov 8
09:50 AM
Sting WTX NTX
18th · 1-1-3 · GD -15
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–1 2.50 2.21 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
09:50 AM
Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +13
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–1 1.02 2.09 Upside
Sat Feb 20
08:00 AM
Nido Dallas Blue NTX
12th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.95 2.08 Swing game
Sat Feb 27
01:30 PM
Sting Brave NTX
23rd · 0-0-6 · GD -19
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
2–0 2.64 2.12 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
03:20 PM
Nido Dallas White NTX
6th · 4-1-1 · GD +5
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.46 2.07 Upside
Sat Apr 3
03:20 PM
DKSC WHITE NTX
10th · 3-1-1 · GD +6
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
1–1 1.81 2.05 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
03:20 PM
Kernow Storm FC NTX
7th · 4-0-2 · GD +15
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–1 1.64 2.03 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5500 313+28 153.00 WWWWW -0.76 -0.21 100% 1.1
2 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 5410 163+13 132.60 WWWWD -1.68 +0.50 33% 6.4
3 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5401 205+15 122.40 WWLWW -1.43 +0.30 51% 4.9
4 Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX 4301 152+13 92.25 WWWL -0.26 +0.01 66% 4.1
5 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 4301 115+6 92.25 WWWL -0.08 +0.01 24% 7.4
6 Nido Dallas White NTX 6411 138+5 132.17 LWWWW +0.76 -0.84 43% 5.5
7 Kernow Storm FC NTX 6402 2510+15 122.00 LLWWW -0.87 +0.45 12% 8.8
8 SOLAR RED NTX 6402 2411+13 122.00 WWLWW +0.04 -0.39 35% 6.1
9 FC Dallas Youth NTX 5311 186+12 102.00 LWWWD -0.72 +0.26 21% 7.3
10 DKSC WHITE NTX 5311 126+6 102.00 DWLWW -0.37 +0.13 5% 10.3
11 Fever United FC NTX 6321 249+15 111.83 DWWDL -0.61 +0.77 7% 9.7
12 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 6312 1611+5 101.67 LLWDW -0.34 +0.19 1% 12.1
13 Dallas Texans NTX 5221 87+1 81.60 DLWWD +0.23 -0.08 1% 12.2
14 Dallas Legends NTX 4202 87+1 61.50 LWWL +0.10 -0.31 1% 11.9
15 SOLAR BLUE NTX 4202 76+1 61.50 WLWL +0.67 +0.13 1% 12.6
16 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5203 413-9 61.20 LWLWL +0.14 +0.08 0% 17.3
17 SOLAR WHITE NTX 5113 822-14 40.80 LLLDW -0.38 +0.00 0% 18.6
18 Sting WTX NTX 5113 520-15 40.80 LLLDW +0.85 +0.12 0% 19.7
19 Sting NTX 4103 417-13 30.75 WLLL +0.53 -0.21 0% 19.1
20 DKSC NTX 5104 1426-12 30.60 LLWLL +0.91 -0.26 0% 17.9
21 Dallas Texans Red NTX 6105 921-12 30.50 LLLLL +0.74 -0.29 0% 18.4
22 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 7016 730-23 10.14 LDLLL +0.72 +0.15 0% 22.4
23 Sting Brave NTX 6006 120-19 00.00 LLLLL +0.43 -0.01 0% 22.7
24 Sting Bold NTX 5005 234-32 00.00 LLLLL +0.72 +0.02 0% 23.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.32 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.