DKSC NTX
ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU14 · 24 teams · DKSC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM
Dallas Soccer Park, Field 14 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.2 for, 4.0 against · 0.67 expected points)
| Season so far | DKSC NTX | Dallas Legends NTX |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 20th | 14th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-4 | 2-0-2 |
| Points per game | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 5.2 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L L | L W W L |
| Biggest win | 8–3 vs SOLAR WHITE NTX | 3–0 at Nido Dallas Blue NTX |
| Worst loss | 2–11 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 1–4 at SOLAR BLUE NTX |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.23 | +0.15 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.91 | +0.10 |
Game plan
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 18%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 08:00 AM at Dallas Soccer Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 08:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Sting NTX sit 19th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.60.A point moves us above Sting NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Dallas Legends NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (DKSC NTX – Dallas Legends NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.50 PPG |
21st▼ down 1 | 20th— holds | 21st▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
17th▲ up 3 | 17th▲ up 3 | 21st▼ down 1 |
| Draw 0.67 PPG |
20th— holds | 18th▲ up 2 | 21st▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.50 PPG |
21st▼ down 1 | 20th— holds | 21st▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 20th even if every rival loses, and as low as 21st if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th <1%
- 12th <1%
- 13th 1%
- 14th 1%
- 15th 4%
- 16th 19%
- 17th 18%
- 18th 18%
- 19th 16%
- 20th 12%
- 21st 7%
- 22nd 2%
- 23rd <1%
- 24th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 3.00 (+2.40) | 1st (2.71) | 42 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Atletico Dallas Youth NTX | 2.60 (+2.00) | 5th (2.03) | 36 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 3 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 2.40 (+1.80) | 3rd (2.12) | 33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 4 | Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 2.25 (+1.65) | 2nd (2.21) | 31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 2.25 (+1.65) | 7th (1.94) | 31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 6 | Nido Dallas White NTX | 2.17 (+1.57) | 4th (2.10) | 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 7 | Kernow Storm FC NTX | 2.00 (+1.40) | 9th (1.81) | 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 8 | SOLAR RED NTX | 2.00 (+1.40) | 6th (2.01) | 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 9 | FC Dallas Youth NTX | 2.00 (+1.40) | 8th (1.92) | 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 10 | DKSC WHITE NTX | 2.00 (+1.40) | 11th (1.71) | 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 11 | Fever United FC NTX | 1.83 (+1.23) | 10th (1.74) | 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 12 | Nido Dallas Blue NTX | 1.67 (+1.07) | 14th (1.56) | 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 13 | Dallas Texans NTX | 1.60 (+1.00) | 13th (1.56) | 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 14 | Dallas Legends NTX | 1.50 (+0.90) | 12th (1.58) | 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 15 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 1.50 (+0.90) | 15th (1.52) | 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 16 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 1.20 (+0.60) | 16th (0.98) | 15 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 17 | SOLAR WHITE NTX | 0.80 (+0.20) | 18th (0.86) | A point next game |
| 18 | Sting WTX NTX | 0.80 (+0.20) | 21st (0.71) | A point next game |
| 19 | Sting NTX | 0.75 (+0.15) | 20th (0.78) | A point next game |
How the results connect
4 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link DKSC NTX to Dallas Legends NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.26 · 20th hardest of 24
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 08:00 AM |
Dallas Legends NTX 14th · 2-0-2 · GD +1 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
2–3 | 0.67 | 0.61 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 09:50 AM |
Sting Brave NTX 23rd · 0-0-6 · GD -19 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
3–1 | 2.16 | 0.83 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 09:50 AM |
FC Dallas Youth White NTX 16th · 2-0-3 · GD -9 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.46 | 0.91 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 6 09:50 AM |
DKSC WHITE NTX 10th · 3-1-1 · GD +6 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
2–3 | 0.71 | 0.89 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 08:00 AM |
Dallas Texans Red NTX 21st · 1-0-5 · GD -12 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
3–3 | 1.37 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 21 09:50 AM |
Sting Bold NTX 24th · 0-0-5 · GD -32 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
6–1 | 2.74 | 1.10 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 27 09:50 AM |
FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +6 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
2–4 | 0.61 | 1.06 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 08:00 AM |
NTX Celtic FC NTX 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +15 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–5 | 0.21 | 1.00 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 09:50 AM |
Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +13 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–5 | 0.16 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 09:50 AM |
Nido Dallas Blue NTX 12th · 3-1-2 · GD +5 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
2–4 | 0.51 | 0.91 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 3 | +28 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.76 | -0.21 | 99% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth NTX · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Sting Bold NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Atletico Dallas Youth NTX | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 13 | 2.60 | WWWWD | -1.68 | +0.50 | 33% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR RED NTX · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Fever United FC NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 5 | +15 | 12 | 2.40 | WWLWW | -1.43 | +0.30 | 52% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Nido Dallas Blue NTX · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 2 | +13 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | -0.26 | +0.01 | 66% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Brave NTX · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Dallas Legends NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | -0.08 | +0.01 | 24% | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Fever United FC NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs Nido Dallas White NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Nido Dallas White NTX | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 13 | 2.17 | LWWWW | +0.76 | -0.84 | 43% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sat Feb 6 at Nido Dallas Blue NTX · Sun Feb 7 vs Sting Brave NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Kernow Storm FC NTX | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 10 | +15 | 12 | 2.00 | LLWWW | -0.87 | +0.45 | 11% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sting WTX NTX · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR RED NTX · Sat Feb 6 at FC Dallas Youth NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | SOLAR RED NTX | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWW | +0.04 | -0.39 | 36% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atletico Dallas Youth NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC WHITE NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Dallas Youth NTX | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 10 | 2.00 | LWWWD | -0.72 | +0.26 | 20% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Legends NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Sting Brave NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | DKSC WHITE NTX | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 10 | 2.00 | DWLWW | -0.37 | +0.13 | 5% | 10.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting WTX NTX · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR RED NTX · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Fever United FC NTX | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 11 | 1.83 | DWWDL | -0.61 | +0.77 | 8% | 9.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX · Sat Feb 6 at NTX Celtic FC NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Nido Dallas Blue NTX | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 10 | 1.67 | LLWDW | -0.34 | +0.19 | 1% | 12.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Bold NTX · Sat Oct 31 at NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Dallas Texans NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Dallas Texans NTX | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 | 1.60 | DLWWD | +0.23 | -0.08 | 1% | 12.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Bold NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Nido Dallas Blue NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Dallas Legends NTX | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 6 | 1.50 | LWWL | +0.10 | -0.31 | 1% | 12.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC NTX · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | +0.67 | +0.13 | 1% | 12.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting WTX NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLWL | +0.14 | +0.08 | 0% | 17.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs DKSC NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | SOLAR WHITE NTX | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 4 | 0.80 | LLLDW | -0.38 | +0.00 | 0% | 18.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Dallas Legends NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Sting WTX NTX | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 20 | -15 | 4 | 0.80 | LLLDW | +0.85 | +0.12 | 0% | 19.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC WHITE NTX · Sun Oct 25 at Kernow Storm FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR BLUE NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Sting NTX | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 3 | 0.75 | WLLL | +0.53 | -0.21 | 0% | 19.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX · Sun Nov 8 at SOLAR BLUE NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | DKSC NTX | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | +0.91 | -0.26 | 0% | 17.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dallas Legends NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Brave NTX · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Dallas Texans Red NTX | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLLL | +0.74 | -0.29 | 0% | 18.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sun Oct 25 at Sting NTX · Sat Feb 6 at Dallas Texans NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 30 | -23 | 1 | 0.14 | LDLLL | +0.72 | +0.15 | 0% | 22.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Sting NTX · Sat Feb 6 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Sting Brave NTX | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 20 | -19 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.43 | -0.01 | 0% | 22.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | Sting Bold NTX | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 34 | -32 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.72 | +0.02 | 0% | 23.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nido Dallas Blue NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Texans NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.32 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.