Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU14 · 24 teams · Atletico Dallas Youth (all teams)

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4th

3-0-1 record · 4 played

2.25 points per game

+13 goal diff · 15–2

WWWLlast 4

67% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.1

-0.26 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM

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Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX
4th · 2.25 PPG

Sting Brave NTX
23rd · 0.00 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 4 ↗

93%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.9 for, 0.5 against · 2.85 expected points)

Season so far	Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX	Sting Brave NTX
Position	4th	23rd
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-1	0-0-6
Points per game	2.25	0.00
Goals for / game	3.8	0.2
Goals against / game	0.5	3.3
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	1	5
Form (recent first)	L W W W	L L L L L
Biggest win	9–0 vs Sting Bold NTX	—
Worst loss	0–1 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX	0–7 vs Nido Dallas Blue NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.67	-1.95
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.26	+0.43

Common opponents: FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX — we 0–1; they 0–5.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Sting Brave NTX average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 5 of 6.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 93% chance; likely score 3–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Sting Brave NTX have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Early kickoff
Game time 08:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
What a win does
NTX Celtic FC NTX sit 3rd on 2.40 PPG; we are on 2.25.
A win moves us above NTX Celtic FC NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sting Brave NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX – Sting Brave NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.40 PPG	3rd▲ up 1	3rd▲ up 1	4th— holds
Win 2.40 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1
Draw 2.00 PPG	8th▼ down 4	6th▼ down 2	11th▼ down 7
Loss 1.80 PPG	11th▼ down 7	10th▼ down 6	13th▼ down 9

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

4% finish 1st

67% top 4

33% below the top 4

4.1 average finish

1st 4%
2nd 31%
3rd 19%
4th 14%
5th 10%
6th 6%
7th 5%
8th 4%
9th 3%
10th 2%
11th 1%
12th 1%
13th <1%
14th <1%
15th <1%
16th
17th
18th
19th
20th
21st
22nd
23rd
24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.80 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX	3.00 (+0.75)	1st (2.71)	36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2	Atletico Dallas Youth NTX	2.60 (+0.35)	5th (2.03)	30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
3	NTX Celtic FC NTX	2.40 (+0.15)	3rd (2.12)	Win next game

How the results connect

4 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX to Sting Brave NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

0 favour them

+5.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 13th hardest of 24

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 08:00 AM	Sting Brave NTX 23rd · 0-0-6 · GD -19	Home Dallas Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	93%	3–0	2.85	2.37	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 09:50 AM	FC Dallas Youth White NTX 16th · 2-0-3 · GD -9	Away Dallas Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	2–0	2.52	2.40	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 07:00 PM	Dallas Legends NTX 14th · 2-0-2 · GD +1	Away Dallas Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	2–1	2.06	2.35	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 09:50 AM	NTX Celtic FC NTX 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +15	Away Dallas Soccer Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	42%	1–1	1.48	2.24	Swing game
Sat Feb 6 09:50 AM	Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +13	Home Dallas Soccer Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	1–1	1.76	2.19	Swing game
Sat Feb 20 08:00 AM	Sting NTX 19th · 1-0-3 · GD -13	Away Dallas Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	4–0	2.73	2.24	Bank it
Sun Feb 21 03:20 PM	Dallas Texans NTX 13th · 2-2-1 · GD +1	Home Dallas Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	2–0	2.21	2.24	Swing game
Sat Feb 27 09:50 AM	SOLAR RED NTX 8th · 4-0-2 · GD +13	Home Dallas Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	58%	2–1	1.93	2.21	Swing game
Sat Mar 6 08:00 AM	Nido Dallas Blue NTX 12th · 3-1-2 · GD +5	Away Dallas Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.95	2.19	Swing game
Sat Apr 3 09:50 AM	DKSC NTX 20th · 1-0-4 · GD -12	Home Dallas Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	91%	5–1	2.79	2.23	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 09:50 AM	FC Dallas Youth NTX 9th · 3-1-1 · GD +12	Home Dallas Soccer Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	54%	2–1	1.82	2.21	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX

+28

3.00

WWWWW

-0.76

-0.21

100%

1.1

W	Sat Oct 17	at	DKSC NTX (20th)	11–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX (4th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth White NTX (16th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Brave NTX (23rd)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Sting WTX NTX (18th)	8–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth NTX · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Sting Bold NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Dallas Youth NTX (9th)	3–1	62%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR WHITE NTX (17th)	6–1	96%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Sting Bold NTX (24th)	9–0	100%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX (22nd)	7–0	99%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Fever United FC NTX (11th)	3–2	64%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	NTX Celtic FC NTX (3rd)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	SOLAR BLUE NTX (15th)	3–1	84%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Dallas Texans NTX (13th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Nido Dallas Blue NTX (12th)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Dallas Legends NTX (14th)	4–1	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atletico Dallas Youth NTX

+13

2.60

WWWWD

-1.68

+0.50

34%

6.3

D	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX (22nd)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Dallas Texans Red NTX (21st)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sting NTX (19th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Sting Bold NTX (24th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SOLAR BLUE NTX (15th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR RED NTX · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Fever United FC NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR RED NTX (8th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth Red NTX (5th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Fever United FC NTX (11th)	1–2	36%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Sting WTX NTX (18th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX (4th)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Nido Dallas Blue NTX (12th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Sting Brave NTX (23rd)	2–0	85%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Nido Dallas White NTX (6th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	DKSC WHITE NTX (10th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Kernow Storm FC NTX (7th)	2–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NTX Celtic FC NTX

+15

2.40

WWLWW

-1.43

+0.30

50%

5.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Sting Brave NTX (23rd)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Dallas Legends NTX (14th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Texans NTX (13th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Bold NTX (24th)	9–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX (22nd)	6–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Nido Dallas Blue NTX · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Nido Dallas Blue NTX (12th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Dallas Youth White NTX (16th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX (4th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Fever United FC NTX (11th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	SOLAR BLUE NTX (15th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX (1st)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	DKSC NTX (20th)	5–1	89%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Sting WTX NTX (18th)	4–1	90%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	FC Dallas Youth NTX (9th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	SOLAR WHITE NTX (17th)	4–1	91%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX

+13

2.25

WWWL

-0.26

+0.01

67%

4.1

L	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sting Bold NTX (24th)	9–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Nido Dallas White NTX (6th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SOLAR WHITE NTX (17th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Brave NTX · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Dallas Legends NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Brave NTX (23rd)	3–0	93%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth White NTX (16th)	2–0	80%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Dallas Legends NTX (14th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	NTX Celtic FC NTX (3rd)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth NTX (2nd)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Sting NTX (19th)	4–0	89%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Dallas Texans NTX (13th)	2–0	68%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	SOLAR RED NTX (8th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Nido Dallas Blue NTX (12th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	DKSC NTX (20th)	5–1	91%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	FC Dallas Youth NTX (9th)	2–1	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Red NTX

2.25

WWWL

-0.08

+0.01

24%

7.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	SOLAR RED NTX (8th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX (22nd)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Dallas Texans Red NTX (21st)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth NTX (9th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Fever United FC NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs Nido Dallas White NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Fever United FC NTX (11th)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Nido Dallas White NTX (6th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth NTX (2nd)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	DKSC WHITE NTX (10th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	FC Dallas Youth White NTX (16th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Dallas Texans NTX (13th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	DKSC NTX (20th)	4–2	71%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Kernow Storm FC NTX (7th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	SOLAR BLUE NTX (15th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Sting WTX NTX (18th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Sting NTX (19th)	3–1	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nido Dallas White NTX

2.17

LWWWW

+0.76

-0.84

43%

5.5

W	Sun Oct 11	at	SOLAR RED NTX (8th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	SOLAR BLUE NTX (15th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sting WTX NTX (18th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Kernow Storm FC NTX (7th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX (4th)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Fever United FC NTX (11th)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sat Feb 6 at Nido Dallas Blue NTX · Sun Feb 7 vs Sting Brave NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Dallas Youth Red NTX (5th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Nido Dallas Blue NTX (12th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Sting Brave NTX (23rd)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Sting Bold NTX (24th)	4–0	93%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Sting NTX (19th)	3–1	84%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth NTX (2nd)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Dallas Texans Red NTX (21st)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX (22nd)	3–1	81%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	DKSC WHITE NTX (10th)	1–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kernow Storm FC NTX

+15

2.00

LLWWW

-0.87

+0.45

12%

8.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX (22nd)	4–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Dallas Texans Red NTX (21st)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Sting NTX (19th)	8–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Nido Dallas White NTX (6th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	DKSC WHITE NTX (10th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	DKSC NTX (20th)	5–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sting WTX NTX · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR RED NTX · Sat Feb 6 at FC Dallas Youth NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sting WTX NTX (18th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SOLAR RED NTX (8th)	2–3	35%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	FC Dallas Youth NTX (9th)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	FC Dallas Youth White NTX (16th)	3–1	83%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	SOLAR BLUE NTX (15th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Dallas Texans NTX (13th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	FC Dallas Youth Red NTX (5th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Fever United FC NTX (11th)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Atletico Dallas Youth NTX (2nd)	1–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR RED NTX

+13

2.00

WWLWW

+0.04

-0.39

34%

6.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Dallas Youth Red NTX (5th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Fever United FC NTX (11th)	4–3
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Nido Dallas White NTX (6th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting WTX NTX (18th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX (22nd)	5–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Nido Dallas Blue NTX (12th)	3–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atletico Dallas Youth NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC WHITE NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Atletico Dallas Youth NTX (2nd)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	DKSC WHITE NTX (10th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Kernow Storm FC NTX (7th)	3–2	48%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Sting Brave NTX (23rd)	4–0	90%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Sting Bold NTX (24th)	7–1	99%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	SOLAR BLUE NTX (15th)	2–2	51%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Sting NTX (19th)	4–1	87%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Dallas Texans Red NTX (21st)	4–1	79%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth NTX

+12

2.00

LWWWD

-0.72

+0.26

20%

7.4

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dallas Texans NTX (13th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Sting Bold NTX (24th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Nido Dallas Blue NTX (12th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	DKSC NTX (20th)	5–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Dallas Youth Red NTX (5th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Legends NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Sting Brave NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX (1st)	1–3	21%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Dallas Legends NTX (14th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Sting Brave NTX (23rd)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Kernow Storm FC NTX (7th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	DKSC WHITE NTX (10th)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	SOLAR WHITE NTX (17th)	4–1	90%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Dallas Texans Red NTX (21st)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	FC Dallas Youth White NTX (16th)	2–1	75%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	NTX Celtic FC NTX (3rd)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX (4th)	1–2	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC WHITE NTX

2.00

DWLWW

-0.37

+0.13

10.3

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX (22nd)	6–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Dallas Texans Red NTX (21st)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR BLUE NTX (15th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Kernow Storm FC NTX (7th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Dallas Texans NTX (13th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting WTX NTX · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR RED NTX · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting WTX NTX (18th)	2–1	72%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR RED NTX (8th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Dallas Youth Red NTX (5th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	DKSC NTX (20th)	3–2	67%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	FC Dallas Youth NTX (9th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Sting NTX (19th)	3–1	83%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	FC Dallas Youth White NTX (16th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Fever United FC NTX (11th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Atletico Dallas Youth NTX (2nd)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Nido Dallas White NTX (6th)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Fever United FC NTX

+15

1.83

DWWDL

-0.61

+0.77

9.7

L	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR RED NTX (8th)	3–4
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Sting WTX NTX (18th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Texans Red NTX (21st)	5–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Sting NTX (19th)	7–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Nido Dallas White NTX (6th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	SOLAR WHITE NTX (17th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX · Sat Feb 6 at NTX Celtic FC NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Dallas Youth Red NTX (5th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth NTX (2nd)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	NTX Celtic FC NTX (3rd)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX (1st)	2–3	21%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX (22nd)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Dallas Legends NTX (14th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	DKSC WHITE NTX (10th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Kernow Storm FC NTX (7th)	2–2	50%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	SOLAR BLUE NTX (15th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nido Dallas Blue NTX

1.67

LLWDW

-0.34

+0.19

12.1

W	Sun Oct 11	at	FC Dallas Youth White NTX (16th)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	SOLAR WHITE NTX (17th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting Brave NTX (23rd)	7–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas Youth NTX (9th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Dallas Legends NTX (14th)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 13	at	SOLAR RED NTX (8th)	4–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Bold NTX · Sat Oct 31 at NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Dallas Texans NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Bold NTX (24th)	5–1	96%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	NTX Celtic FC NTX (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Dallas Texans NTX (13th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Nido Dallas White NTX (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Atletico Dallas Youth NTX (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Sting NTX (19th)	3–1	83%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX (4th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX (1st)	1–4	7%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	DKSC NTX (20th)	4–2	76%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans NTX

1.60

DLWWD

+0.23

-0.08

12.2

D	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas Youth NTX (9th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	DKSC NTX (20th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	NTX Celtic FC NTX (3rd)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas Youth White NTX (16th)	2–3
D	Sat Sep 12	at	DKSC WHITE NTX (10th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Bold NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Nido Dallas Blue NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR WHITE NTX (17th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting Bold NTX (24th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Nido Dallas Blue NTX (12th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Dallas Texans Red NTX (21st)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	FC Dallas Youth Red NTX (5th)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX (4th)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Kernow Storm FC NTX (7th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX (1st)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Dallas Legends NTX (14th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Sting Brave NTX (23rd)	2–0	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Legends NTX

1.50

LWWL

+0.10

-0.31

12.0

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	NTX Celtic FC NTX (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sting Brave NTX (23rd)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Nido Dallas Blue NTX (12th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	SOLAR BLUE NTX (15th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC NTX · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	DKSC NTX (20th)	3–2	69%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth NTX (9th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX (4th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SOLAR WHITE NTX (17th)	3–1	65%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Sting WTX NTX (18th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX (22nd)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	FC Dallas Youth White NTX (16th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Fever United FC NTX (11th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Sting Bold NTX (24th)	4–1	88%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Dallas Texans NTX (13th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX (1st)	1–4	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR BLUE NTX

1.50

WLWL

+0.67

+0.13

12.4

L	Sat Oct 10	at	Nido Dallas White NTX (6th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	DKSC WHITE NTX (10th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Atletico Dallas Youth NTX (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Dallas Legends NTX (14th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting WTX NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dallas Texans Red NTX (21st)	3–1	70%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX (22nd)	3–1	82%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sting WTX NTX (18th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Sting NTX (19th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	SOLAR WHITE NTX (17th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	NTX Celtic FC NTX (3rd)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Kernow Storm FC NTX (7th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	SOLAR RED NTX (8th)	2–2	30%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	FC Dallas Youth Red NTX (5th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Fever United FC NTX (11th)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth White NTX

-9

1.20

LWLWL

+0.14

+0.08

17.3

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Nido Dallas Blue NTX (12th)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Sting Brave NTX (23rd)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Dallas Texans NTX (13th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Dallas Texans Red NTX (21st)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs DKSC NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX (4th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	NTX Celtic FC NTX (3rd)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	DKSC NTX (20th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	FC Dallas Youth Red NTX (5th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Kernow Storm FC NTX (7th)	1–3	7%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Dallas Legends NTX (14th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	DKSC WHITE NTX (10th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Dallas Youth NTX (9th)	1–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	SOLAR WHITE NTX (17th)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Sting Bold NTX (24th)	2–1	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR WHITE NTX

-14

0.80

LLLDW

-0.38

+0.00

18.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting Bold NTX (24th)	3–2
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Nido Dallas Blue NTX (12th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	DKSC NTX (20th)	3–8
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX (4th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Fever United FC NTX (11th)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Dallas Legends NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dallas Texans NTX (13th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX (1st)	1–6	1%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Dallas Legends NTX (14th)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	SOLAR BLUE NTX (15th)	1–3	17%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Sting WTX NTX (18th)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	FC Dallas Youth NTX (9th)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX (22nd)	2–2	57%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Sting Brave NTX (23rd)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	FC Dallas Youth White NTX (16th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	NTX Celtic FC NTX (3rd)	1–4	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting WTX NTX

-15

0.80

LLLDW

+0.85

+0.12

19.7

W	Sun Oct 11	at	FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX (22nd)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Fever United FC NTX (11th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Nido Dallas White NTX (6th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR RED NTX (8th)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX (1st)	1–8

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC WHITE NTX · Sun Oct 25 at Kernow Storm FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR BLUE NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	DKSC WHITE NTX (10th)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Kernow Storm FC NTX (7th)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SOLAR BLUE NTX (15th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth NTX (2nd)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Dallas Legends NTX (14th)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	SOLAR WHITE NTX (17th)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Sting NTX (19th)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	NTX Celtic FC NTX (3rd)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Dallas Texans Red NTX (21st)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC Dallas Youth Red NTX (5th)	1–3	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting NTX

-13

0.75

WLLL

+0.53

-0.21

19.1

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Kernow Storm FC NTX (7th)	1–8
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Atletico Dallas Youth NTX (2nd)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Fever United FC NTX (11th)	0–7
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting Brave NTX (23rd)	3–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX · Sun Nov 8 at SOLAR BLUE NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Dallas Texans Red NTX (21st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX (22nd)	2–2	52%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	SOLAR BLUE NTX (15th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Sting Bold NTX (24th)	3–1	64%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX (4th)	0–4	4%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	DKSC WHITE NTX (10th)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Nido Dallas Blue NTX (12th)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Nido Dallas White NTX (6th)	1–3	6%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Sting WTX NTX (18th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	SOLAR RED NTX (8th)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	FC Dallas Youth Red NTX (5th)	1–3	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC NTX

-12

0.60

LLWLL

+0.91

-0.26

18.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX (1st)	2–11
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Dallas Texans NTX (13th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR WHITE NTX (17th)	8–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas Youth NTX (9th)	2–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Kernow Storm FC NTX (7th)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dallas Legends NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Brave NTX · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Dallas Legends NTX (14th)	2–3	18%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting Brave NTX (23rd)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Dallas Youth White NTX (16th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	DKSC WHITE NTX (10th)	2–3	19%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Dallas Texans Red NTX (21st)	3–3	41%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Sting Bold NTX (24th)	6–1	90%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	FC Dallas Youth Red NTX (5th)	2–4	16%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	NTX Celtic FC NTX (3rd)	1–5	5%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX (4th)	1–5	4%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Nido Dallas Blue NTX (12th)	2–4	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans Red NTX

-12

0.50

LLLLL

+0.74

-0.29

18.5

L	Sun Oct 11	at	Kernow Storm FC NTX (7th)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 10	at	DKSC WHITE NTX (10th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Atletico Dallas Youth NTX (2nd)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Fever United FC NTX (11th)	2–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Dallas Youth Red NTX (5th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth White NTX (16th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sun Oct 25 at Sting NTX · Sat Feb 6 at Dallas Texans NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR BLUE NTX (15th)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sting NTX (19th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Dallas Texans NTX (13th)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	DKSC NTX (20th)	3–3	44%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	FC Dallas Youth NTX (9th)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX (22nd)	3–1	64%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Nido Dallas White NTX (6th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Sting WTX NTX (18th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	SOLAR RED NTX (8th)	1–4	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX

-23

0.14

LDLLL

+0.72

+0.15

22.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Kernow Storm FC NTX (7th)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	DKSC WHITE NTX (10th)	1–6
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Sting WTX NTX (18th)	0–3
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth NTX (2nd)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth Red NTX (5th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	SOLAR RED NTX (8th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	NTX Celtic FC NTX (3rd)	2–6

Next: Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Sting NTX · Sat Feb 6 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR BLUE NTX (15th)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Sting NTX (19th)	2–2	29%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Dallas Legends NTX (14th)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Fever United FC NTX (11th)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	SOLAR WHITE NTX (17th)	2–2	26%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Dallas Texans Red NTX (21st)	1–3	20%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Nido Dallas White NTX (6th)	1–3	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Brave NTX

-19

0.00

LLLLL

+0.43

-0.01

22.7

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	NTX Celtic FC NTX (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Dallas Youth White NTX (16th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Nido Dallas Blue NTX (12th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Legends NTX (14th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Sting NTX (19th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX (4th)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	DKSC NTX (20th)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Dallas Youth NTX (9th)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	SOLAR RED NTX (8th)	0–4	4%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Nido Dallas White NTX (6th)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth NTX (2nd)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	SOLAR WHITE NTX (17th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Sting Bold NTX (24th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Dallas Texans NTX (13th)	0–2	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Bold NTX

-32

0.00

LLLLL

+0.72

+0.02

23.2

L	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR WHITE NTX (17th)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Dallas Youth NTX (9th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX (4th)	0–9
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Atletico Dallas Youth NTX (2nd)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	NTX Celtic FC NTX (3rd)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nido Dallas Blue NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Texans NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Nido Dallas Blue NTX (12th)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Dallas Texans NTX (13th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX (1st)	0–9	0%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Sting NTX (19th)	1–3	21%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	SOLAR RED NTX (8th)	1–7	0%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	DKSC NTX (20th)	1–6	5%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Nido Dallas White NTX (6th)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Dallas Legends NTX (14th)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Sting Brave NTX (23rd)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC Dallas Youth White NTX (16th)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.32 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.