FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX
ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU14 · 24 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 03:20 PM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.1 for, 3.6 against · 0.33 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX | SOLAR BLUE NTX |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 22nd | 15th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-6 | 2-0-2 |
| Points per game | 0.14 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals against / game | 4.3 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L D L | L W L W |
| Biggest win | — | 4–1 vs Dallas Legends NTX |
| Worst loss | 0–5 vs FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 1–3 at Atletico Dallas Youth NTX |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -2.09 | +0.30 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.72 | +0.67 |
Common opponents: Atletico Dallas Youth NTX — we 1–1; they 1–3. DKSC WHITE NTX — we 1–6; they 1–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–5 vs FC Dallas Youth Red NTX, 0–3 vs Sting WTX NTX.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 7%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 03:20 PM at Dallas Soccer Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Dallas Texans Red NTX sit 21st on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.14.A win moves us above Dallas Texans Red NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the SOLAR BLUE NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX – SOLAR BLUE NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.13 PPG |
22nd— holds | 22nd— holds | 24th▼ down 2 |
| Win 0.50 PPG |
22nd— holds | 22nd— holds | 22nd— holds |
| Draw 0.25 PPG |
22nd— holds | 22nd— holds | 24th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.13 PPG |
22nd— holds | 22nd— holds | 24th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 22nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 24th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th <1%
- 17th <1%
- 18th 1%
- 19th 2%
- 20th 5%
- 21st 11%
- 22nd 31%
- 23rd 34%
- 24th 16%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.67 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 3.00 (+2.86) | 1st (2.71) | 44 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Atletico Dallas Youth NTX | 2.60 (+2.46) | 5th (2.03) | 38 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 2.40 (+2.26) | 3rd (2.12) | 35 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 2.25 (+2.11) | 2nd (2.21) | 33 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 2.25 (+2.11) | 7th (1.94) | 33 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Nido Dallas White NTX | 2.17 (+2.03) | 4th (2.10) | 32 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | Kernow Storm FC NTX | 2.00 (+1.86) | 9th (1.81) | 29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 8 | SOLAR RED NTX | 2.00 (+1.86) | 6th (2.01) | 29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 9 | FC Dallas Youth NTX | 2.00 (+1.86) | 8th (1.92) | 29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 10 | DKSC WHITE NTX | 2.00 (+1.86) | 11th (1.71) | 29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 11 | Fever United FC NTX | 1.83 (+1.69) | 10th (1.74) | 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 12 | Nido Dallas Blue NTX | 1.67 (+1.53) | 14th (1.56) | 25 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 13 | Dallas Texans NTX | 1.60 (+1.46) | 13th (1.56) | 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 14 | Dallas Legends NTX | 1.50 (+1.36) | 12th (1.58) | 22 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 15 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 1.50 (+1.36) | 15th (1.52) | 22 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 16 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 1.20 (+1.06) | 16th (0.98) | 17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 17 | SOLAR WHITE NTX | 0.80 (+0.66) | 18th (0.86) | 11 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 18 | Sting WTX NTX | 0.80 (+0.66) | 21st (0.71) | 11 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection |
| 19 | Sting NTX | 0.75 (+0.61) | 20th (0.78) | 11 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 20 | DKSC NTX | 0.60 (+0.46) | 17th (0.91) | 8 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 21 | Dallas Texans Red NTX | 0.50 (+0.36) | 19th (0.84) | Win next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX to SOLAR BLUE NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.15 · 7th hardest of 24
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 03:20 PM |
SOLAR BLUE NTX 15th · 2-0-2 · GD +1 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.33 | 0.17 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 03:20 PM |
Sting NTX 19th · 1-0-3 · GD -13 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
2–2 | 1.07 | 0.27 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 09:50 AM |
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +28 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–7 | 0.02 | 0.24 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 11:40 AM |
Dallas Legends NTX 14th · 2-0-2 · GD +1 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.54 | 0.27 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 21 03:20 PM |
Fever United FC NTX 11th · 3-2-1 · GD +15 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.19 | 0.26 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 01:30 PM |
SOLAR WHITE NTX 17th · 1-1-3 · GD -14 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
2–2 | 0.95 | 0.31 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 03:20 PM |
Dallas Texans Red NTX 21st · 1-0-5 · GD -12 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–3 | 0.77 | 0.35 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 03:20 PM |
Nido Dallas White NTX 6th · 4-1-1 · GD +5 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.35 | 0.35 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 3 | +28 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.76 | -0.21 | 99% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth NTX · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Sting Bold NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Atletico Dallas Youth NTX | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 13 | 2.60 | WWWWD | -1.68 | +0.50 | 33% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR RED NTX · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Fever United FC NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 5 | +15 | 12 | 2.40 | WWLWW | -1.43 | +0.30 | 51% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Nido Dallas Blue NTX · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 2 | +13 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | -0.26 | +0.01 | 65% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Brave NTX · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Dallas Legends NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | -0.08 | +0.01 | 26% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Fever United FC NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs Nido Dallas White NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Nido Dallas White NTX | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 13 | 2.17 | LWWWW | +0.76 | -0.84 | 43% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sat Feb 6 at Nido Dallas Blue NTX · Sun Feb 7 vs Sting Brave NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Kernow Storm FC NTX | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 10 | +15 | 12 | 2.00 | LLWWW | -0.87 | +0.45 | 12% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sting WTX NTX · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR RED NTX · Sat Feb 6 at FC Dallas Youth NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | SOLAR RED NTX | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWW | +0.04 | -0.39 | 33% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atletico Dallas Youth NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC WHITE NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Dallas Youth NTX | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 10 | 2.00 | LWWWD | -0.72 | +0.26 | 21% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Legends NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Sting Brave NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | DKSC WHITE NTX | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 10 | 2.00 | DWLWW | -0.37 | +0.13 | 6% | 10.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting WTX NTX · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR RED NTX · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Fever United FC NTX | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 11 | 1.83 | DWWDL | -0.61 | +0.77 | 6% | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX · Sat Feb 6 at NTX Celtic FC NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Nido Dallas Blue NTX | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 10 | 1.67 | LLWDW | -0.34 | +0.19 | 1% | 12.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Bold NTX · Sat Oct 31 at NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Dallas Texans NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Dallas Texans NTX | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 | 1.60 | DLWWD | +0.23 | -0.08 | 1% | 12.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Bold NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Nido Dallas Blue NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Dallas Legends NTX | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 6 | 1.50 | LWWL | +0.10 | -0.31 | 2% | 11.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC NTX · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | +0.67 | +0.13 | 1% | 12.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting WTX NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLWL | +0.14 | +0.08 | 0% | 17.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs DKSC NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | SOLAR WHITE NTX | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 4 | 0.80 | LLLDW | -0.38 | +0.00 | 0% | 18.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Dallas Legends NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Sting WTX NTX | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 20 | -15 | 4 | 0.80 | LLLDW | +0.85 | +0.12 | 0% | 19.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC WHITE NTX · Sun Oct 25 at Kernow Storm FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR BLUE NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Sting NTX | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 3 | 0.75 | WLLL | +0.53 | -0.21 | 0% | 19.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX · Sun Nov 8 at SOLAR BLUE NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | DKSC NTX | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | +0.91 | -0.26 | 0% | 18.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dallas Legends NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Brave NTX · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Dallas Texans Red NTX | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLLL | +0.74 | -0.29 | 0% | 18.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sun Oct 25 at Sting NTX · Sat Feb 6 at Dallas Texans NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 30 | -23 | 1 | 0.14 | LDLLL | +0.72 | +0.15 | 0% | 22.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Sting NTX · Sat Feb 6 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Sting Brave NTX | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 20 | -19 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.43 | -0.01 | 0% | 22.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atlético Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | Sting Bold NTX | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 34 | -32 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.72 | +0.02 | 0% | 23.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nido Dallas Blue NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Texans NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.32 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.