Germantown Legends

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Jackson Futbol Club, Field 4 ↗ far trip

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.6 for, 2.3 against · 0.98 expected points)

Already played this season: Sun Aug 23 2–3 vs Mississippi Rush United (L)

Common opponents: Tennessee SC — we 0–10; they 1–4, 1–6. Tennessee SC Murfreesboro — we 0–2; they 0–9, 2–2. Lobos Rush — we 0–2, 0–4; they 2–2. Alabama FC — we 0–4; they 0–9.

• They struggle to score
  Mississippi Rush United average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 4 of 9.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Mississippi Rush United concede 5.0/game; worst result 0–10 at North Georgia Soccer Academy.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–10 at Tennessee SC, 0–2 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro, 0–2 at Lobos Rush, 0–4 at Alabama FC, 0–6 at Alabama FC Huntsville, 0–4 vs Lobos Rush.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 26%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• Confidence is low on their side
  Mississippi Rush United have lost 3 straight (form: LDLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Away game
  Kickoff 03:00 PM at Jackson Futbol Club.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  FC Alliance TN sit 9th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

  A point moves us above FC Alliance TN on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Mississippi Rush United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Germantown Legends – Mississippi Rush United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th
6. 6th
7. 7th <1%
8. 8th 3%
9. 9th 66%
10. 10th 32%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 1.31 PPG if we win out).