Alabama FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Mid-America BU18/19 · 10 teams · Alabama FC (all teams)

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1st

6-1-1 record · 8 played

2.38 points per game

+30 goal diff · 38–8

WLWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.2

-0.18 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:00 PM

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Alabama FC
1st · 2.38 PPG

Lobos Rush
7th · 0.78 PPG

Progress Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip

88%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.1 for, 1.0 against · 2.71 expected points)

Season so far	Alabama FC	Lobos Rush
Position	1st	7th
Record (W-D-L)	6-1-1	2-1-6
Points per game	2.38	0.78
Goals for / game	4.8	1.3
Goals against / game	1.0	2.8
Clean sheets	4	2
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	W W W L W	W L L L W
Biggest win	9–0 vs Mississippi Rush United	4–0 at Germantown Legends
Worst loss	4–5 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro	0–6 at Alabama FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.61	-1.04
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.18	-0.34

Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 6–0 vs Lobos Rush (W)

Common opponents: Germantown Legends — we 4–0; they 2–0, 4–0. Tennessee SC Murfreesboro — we 4–5; they 1–3. Tennessee SC — we 2–1; they 0–4. Mississippi Rush United — we 9–0; they 2–2. Alabama FC Huntsville — we 7–0; they 1–4.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 88% chance; likely score 4–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Progress Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lobos Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Alabama FC – Lobos Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.44 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.44 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.22 PPG	1st— holds	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1
Loss 2.11 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

87% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.2 average finish

1st 87%
2nd 10%
3rd 3%
4th <1%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

65 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Alabama FC to Lobos Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

56 favour us

3 even

6 favour them

+5.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.45 · 8th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM	Lobos Rush 7th · 2-1-6 · GD -13	Away far trip Progress Park	●○○○○ Favorable	88%	4–1	2.71	2.41	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM	Germantown Legends 10th · 0-0-9 · GD -33	Away far trip Mike Rose Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	5–0	2.94	2.46	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 03:00 PM	Mississippi Rush United 8th · 1-2-6 · GD -36	Away far trip Freedom Ridge Park	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	6–0	2.94	2.51	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM	Mississippi Surf 5th · 6-1-4 · GD -10	Away far trip BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	4–1	2.65	2.52	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 03:00 PM	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 2nd · 7-1-2 · GD +24	Home Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	3–1	2.09	2.49	Swing game
Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM	Tennessee SC 3rd · 7-0-3 · GD +26	Home Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.94	2.45	Swing game
Sat Nov 21 12:00 PM	Alabama FC Huntsville 4th · 5-0-3 · GD +8	Away far trip Merrimack Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	3–2	2.25	2.43	Bank it
Sat May 15 01:00 PM	Mississippi Surf 5th · 6-1-4 · GD -10	Home Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)	●○○○○ Favorable	91%	4–1	2.79	2.46	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Alabama FC

+30

2.38

WLWWW

-0.18

-0.45

100%

1.2

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	7–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	9–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Tennessee SC (3rd)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	4–5
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	5–1
D	Sun Aug 23	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Lobos Rush · Sun Nov 1 at Germantown Legends · Sat Nov 7 at Mississippi Rush United See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	4–1	88%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	5–0	97%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	6–0	97%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mississippi Surf (5th)	4–1	86%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	3–1	65%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Tennessee SC (3rd)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	3–2	71%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Mississippi Surf (5th)	4–1	91%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tennessee SC Murfreesboro

+24

2.20

LDWWW

-0.32

+0.07

99%

2.6

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	4–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Alabama FC (1st)	5–4
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Mississippi Surf (5th)	10–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Tennessee SC (3rd)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	9–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Mississippi Surf (5th)	1–3
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Tennessee SC (3rd)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 7 at Germantown Legends See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	2–2	55%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	3–1	66%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Alabama FC (1st)	1–3	20%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	3–2	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tennessee SC

+26

2.10

WWWLL

-0.34

+0.07

98%

2.7

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Alabama FC (1st)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	2–4
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Mississippi Surf (5th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Mississippi Surf (5th)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	4–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	4–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	10–0
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 14 at Alabama FC Huntsville See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	3–2	57%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Alabama FC (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	4–0	94%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alabama FC Huntsville

1.88

WWLLL

+0.35

-0.47

88%

3.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Alabama FC (1st)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Mississippi Surf (5th)	2–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	3–4
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Tennessee SC (3rd)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	3–2
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	7–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 31 at Germantown Legends · Sun Nov 1 at Lobos Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	5–1	93%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	4–1	90%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Mississippi Surf (5th)	3–2	61%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	5–1	88%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Tennessee SC (3rd)	2–3	27%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	2–3	31%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Alabama FC (1st)	2–3	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mississippi Surf

-10

1.73

LWWWD

+0.11

+0.12

5.3

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	3–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	1–10
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Tennessee SC (3rd)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Tennessee SC (3rd)	1–6
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	3–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Nov 8 vs Alabama FC · Sat Nov 21 vs Mississippi Rush United See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	2–3	24%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Alabama FC (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat May 15	at	Alabama FC (1st)	1–4	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

North Georgia Soccer Academy

1.38

LWWDW

-0.16

-0.08

5.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	1–0
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Mississippi Surf (5th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	10–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Mississippi Surf (5th)	4–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Alabama FC (1st)	1–5
D	Sun Aug 23	at	Alabama FC (1st)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	2–7

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Lobos Rush · Sun Oct 11 at Germantown Legends · Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC Murfreesboro See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	2–2	27%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Tennessee SC (3rd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Tennessee SC (3rd)	1–3	16%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	3–0	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lobos Rush

-13

0.78

WLLLW

-0.34

+0.68

7.2

W	Thu Oct 22	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Mississippi Surf (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Alabama FC (1st)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	1–4
W	Thu Sep 17	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	2–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Tennessee SC (3rd)	0–4
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Mississippi Surf (5th)	1–4
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Alabama FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Alabama FC Huntsville See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Alabama FC (1st)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	1–3	18%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Tennessee SC (3rd)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mississippi Rush United

-36

0.56

LDLLL

+0.81

-0.13

7.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Alabama FC (1st)	0–9
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Tennessee SC (3rd)	1–6
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	0–10
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	0–9
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Tennessee SC (3rd)	1–4
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	3–2
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Oct 25 vs Germantown Legends · Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	1–5	3%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Alabama FC (1st)	0–6	1%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	1–5	5%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Mississippi Surf (5th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Mississippi Surf (5th)	1–3	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Alliance TN

0.00

—

Germantown Legends

-33

0.00

LLLLL

+0.05

+0.68

9.3

L	Thu Oct 22	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	0–4
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Mississippi Surf (5th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Alabama FC (1st)	0–4
L	Thu Sep 17	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	0–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Tennessee SC (3rd)	0–10
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	2–3
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mississippi Surf (5th)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 11 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 31 vs Alabama FC Huntsville See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Alabama FC (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Tennessee SC (3rd)	0–4	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.54 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.