Tennessee SC Murfreesboro
ECNL Regional League Boys · Mid-America BU18/19 · 10 teams · Tennessee SC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 12:00 PM
Richard Siegel Soccer Complex, Field 4 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 2.0 against · 1.94 expected points)
| Season so far | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | North Georgia Soccer Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-1-3 | 4-2-3 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.56 |
| Goals for / game | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W W D | W W D W W |
| Biggest win | 9–0 at Mississippi Rush United | 10–0 vs Mississippi Rush United |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at Mississippi Surf | 2–7 at Alabama FC Huntsville |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.38 | +0.54 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.22 | +0.05 |
Already played this season: Sat Oct 24 1–3 at North Georgia Soccer Academy (L)
Common opponents: Mississippi Surf — we 1–3, 10–1; they 4–1, 1–1. Mississippi Rush United — we 9–0, 2–2; they 10–0, 1–0. Alabama FC — we 5–4; they 1–1, 1–5. Alabama FC Huntsville — we 4–3; they 2–7, 2–3.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 59% / draw 17% / loss 24%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the North Georgia Soccer Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Tennessee SC Murfreesboro – North Georgia Soccer Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.08 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.08 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.92 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.83 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 24%
- 3rd 40%
- 4th 27%
- 5th 8%
- 6th 1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama FC | 2.38 (+0.38) | 1st (2.46) | 17 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Tennessee SC | 2.10 (+0.10) | 2nd (2.07) | 12 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
How the results connect
73 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Tennessee SC Murfreesboro to North Georgia Soccer Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
18 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.05 · 5th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
North Georgia Soccer Academy 6th · 4-2-3 · GD +6 |
Home Richard Siegel Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.94 | 2.00 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
Germantown Legends 10th · 0-0-9 · GD -33 |
Away far trip
Memphis University School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.83 | 2.06 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
Lobos Rush 7th · 2-1-6 · GD -13 |
Away far trip
Progress Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 75% |
3–1 | 2.39 | 2.08 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 03:00 PM |
Alabama FC 1st · 6-1-1 · GD +30 |
Away far trip
Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF) |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–3 | 0.67 | 1.99 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 10:00 AM |
Alabama FC Huntsville 4th · 5-0-3 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Merrimack Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
3–2 | 1.62 | 1.97 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Alabama FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 8 | +30 | 19 | 2.38 | WLWWW | -0.17 | -0.48 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Lobos Rush · Sun Nov 1 at Germantown Legends · Sat Nov 7 at Mississippi Rush United See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Tennessee SC | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 39 | 13 | +26 | 21 | 2.10 | WWWLL | -0.38 | +0.13 | 96% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 14 at Alabama FC Huntsville See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 41 | 19 | +22 | 22 | 2.00 | DWWWL | -0.22 | +0.05 | 91% | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 7 at Germantown Legends · Sun Nov 8 at Lobos Rush See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Alabama FC Huntsville | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 21 | +8 | 15 | 1.88 | WWLLL | +0.36 | -0.50 | 83% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 31 at Germantown Legends · Sun Nov 1 at Lobos Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Mississippi Surf | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 19 | 1.73 | LWWWD | +0.10 | +0.13 | 7% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Nov 8 vs Alabama FC · Sat Nov 21 vs Mississippi Rush United See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | North Georgia Soccer Academy | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 14 | 1.56 | WWDWW | +0.05 | -0.36 | 22% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Lobos Rush · Sun Oct 11 at Germantown Legends · Sun Oct 25 vs Tennessee SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Lobos Rush | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 7 | 0.78 | WLLLW | -0.37 | +0.70 | 0% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Alabama FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Alabama FC Huntsville See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Mississippi Rush United | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 45 | -36 | 5 | 0.56 | LDLLL | +0.80 | -0.13 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Oct 25 vs Germantown Legends · Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Alliance TN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. |
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| 10 | Germantown Legends | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 37 | -33 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.02 | +0.70 | 0% | 9.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 31 vs Alabama FC Huntsville See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.