Mississippi Surf

ECNL Regional League Boys · Mid-America BU18/19 · 10 teams · Mississippi Surf (all teams)

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5th

6-1-4 record · 11 played

1.73 points per game

-10 goal diff · 22–32

LWWWDlast 5

9% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.3

+0.11 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 03:00 PM

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Mississippi Surf
5th · 1.73 PPG

Alabama FC Huntsville
4th · 1.88 PPG

BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park, Academy Sports Field ↗

24% 15% 61%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.4 for, 3.5 against · 0.87 expected points)

Season so far	Mississippi Surf	Alabama FC Huntsville
Position	5th	4th
Record (W-D-L)	6-1-4	5-0-3
Points per game	1.73	1.88
Goals for / game	2.0	3.6
Goals against / game	2.9	2.6
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	D W W W L	L L L W W
Biggest win	4–1 at Lobos Rush	6–0 vs Germantown Legends
Worst loss	1–10 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro	0–7 at Alabama FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.70	+0.75
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.11	+0.35

Already played this season: Sun Oct 11 3–2 at Alabama FC Huntsville (W)

Common opponents: Germantown Legends — we 3–1, 3–1; they 6–0. Lobos Rush — we 4–1, 2–1; they 4–1. Tennessee SC Murfreesboro — we 3–1, 1–10; they 3–4. Tennessee SC — we 1–6, 0–4; they 4–2. North Georgia Soccer Academy — we 1–4, 1–1; they 7–2, 3–2.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Alabama FC Huntsville score 3.6/game — well above the league's 2.5.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at Tennessee SC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 24%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Confidence is low on their side
Alabama FC Huntsville have lost 3 straight (form: WWLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Alabama FC Huntsville game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mississippi Surf – Alabama FC Huntsville) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.58 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Win 1.83 PPG	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1
Draw 1.67 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Loss 1.58 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

9% top 4

91% below the top 4

5.3 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd <1%
4th 9%
5th 49%
6th 41%
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Alabama FC	2.38 (+0.65)	1st (2.46)	20 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro	2.20 (+0.47)	2nd (2.11)	17 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
3	Tennessee SC	2.10 (+0.37)	3rd (2.08)	15 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
4	Alabama FC Huntsville	1.88 (+0.15)	4th (1.88)	12 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection

How the results connect

57 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Mississippi Surf to Alabama FC Huntsville through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

18 favour us

4 even

35 favour them

-2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.12 · 3rd hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 7 03:00 PM	Alabama FC Huntsville 4th · 5-0-3 · GD +8	Home BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park	●●●●● Very tough	24%	2–3	0.87	1.66	Upside
Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM	Alabama FC 1st · 6-1-1 · GD +30	Home BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park	●●●●● Very tough	6%	1–4	0.27	1.55	Upside
Sat Nov 21 TBD	Mississippi Rush United 8th · 1-2-6 · GD -36	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	3–1	2.43	1.61	Bank it
Sat Mar 20 05:00 PM	Mississippi Rush United 8th · 1-2-6 · GD -36	Away far trip Freedom Ridge Park · turf?	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	3–1	2.17	1.65	Swing game
Sat May 15 01:00 PM	Alabama FC 1st · 6-1-1 · GD +30	Away far trip Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)	●●●●● Very tough	3%	1–4	0.16	1.56	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Alabama FC

+30

2.38

WLWWW

-0.18

-0.45

100%

1.1

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	7–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	9–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Tennessee SC (3rd)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	4–5
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	5–1
D	Sun Aug 23	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Lobos Rush · Sun Nov 1 at Germantown Legends · Sat Nov 7 at Mississippi Rush United See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	4–1	88%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	5–0	97%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	6–0	97%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mississippi Surf (5th)	4–1	86%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	3–1	65%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Tennessee SC (3rd)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	3–2	71%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Mississippi Surf (5th)	4–1	91%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tennessee SC Murfreesboro

+24

2.20

LDWWW

-0.32

+0.07

99%

2.6

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	4–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Alabama FC (1st)	5–4
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Mississippi Surf (5th)	10–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Tennessee SC (3rd)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	9–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Mississippi Surf (5th)	1–3
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Tennessee SC (3rd)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 7 at Germantown Legends See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	2–2	55%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	3–1	66%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Alabama FC (1st)	1–3	20%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	3–2	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tennessee SC

+26

2.10

WWWLL

-0.34

+0.07

98%

2.7

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Alabama FC (1st)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	2–4
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Mississippi Surf (5th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Mississippi Surf (5th)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	4–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	4–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	10–0
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 14 at Alabama FC Huntsville See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	3–2	57%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Alabama FC (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	4–0	94%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alabama FC Huntsville

1.88

WWLLL

+0.35

-0.47

86%

3.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Alabama FC (1st)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Mississippi Surf (5th)	2–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	3–4
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Tennessee SC (3rd)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	3–2
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	7–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 31 at Germantown Legends · Sun Nov 1 at Lobos Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	5–1	93%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	4–1	90%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Mississippi Surf (5th)	3–2	61%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	5–1	88%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Tennessee SC (3rd)	2–3	27%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	2–3	31%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Alabama FC (1st)	2–3	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mississippi Surf

-10

1.73

LWWWD

+0.11

+0.12

5.3

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	3–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	1–10
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Tennessee SC (3rd)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Tennessee SC (3rd)	1–6
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	3–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Nov 8 vs Alabama FC · Sat Nov 21 vs Mississippi Rush United See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	2–3	24%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Alabama FC (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat May 15	at	Alabama FC (1st)	1–4	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

North Georgia Soccer Academy

1.38

LWWDW

-0.16

-0.08

5.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	1–0
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Mississippi Surf (5th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	10–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Mississippi Surf (5th)	4–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Alabama FC (1st)	1–5
D	Sun Aug 23	at	Alabama FC (1st)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	2–7

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Lobos Rush · Sun Oct 11 at Germantown Legends · Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC Murfreesboro See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	2–2	27%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Tennessee SC (3rd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Tennessee SC (3rd)	1–3	16%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	3–0	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lobos Rush

-13

0.78

WLLLW

-0.34

+0.68

7.2

W	Thu Oct 22	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Mississippi Surf (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Alabama FC (1st)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	1–4
W	Thu Sep 17	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	2–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Tennessee SC (3rd)	0–4
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Mississippi Surf (5th)	1–4
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Alabama FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Alabama FC Huntsville See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Alabama FC (1st)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	1–3	18%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Tennessee SC (3rd)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mississippi Rush United

-36

0.56

LDLLL

+0.81

-0.13

7.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Alabama FC (1st)	0–9
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Tennessee SC (3rd)	1–6
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	0–10
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	0–9
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Tennessee SC (3rd)	1–4
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Germantown Legends (10th)	3–2
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Oct 25 vs Germantown Legends · Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	1–5	3%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Germantown Legends (10th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Alabama FC (1st)	0–6	1%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	1–5	5%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Mississippi Surf (5th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Mississippi Surf (5th)	1–3	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Alliance TN

0.00

—

Germantown Legends

-33

0.00

LLLLL

+0.05

+0.68

9.3

L	Thu Oct 22	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	0–4
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Mississippi Surf (5th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Alabama FC (1st)	0–4
L	Thu Sep 17	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	0–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Tennessee SC (3rd)	0–10
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	2–3
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mississippi Surf (5th)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 11 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 31 vs Alabama FC Huntsville See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	vs	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mississippi Rush United (8th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (4th)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Alabama FC (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Tennessee SC Murfreesboro (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	North Georgia Soccer Academy (6th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Tennessee SC (3rd)	0–4	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.54 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.