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San Diego Surf

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU17 · 13 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

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10th
1-0-3 record · 4 played
0.75 points per game
-1 goal diff · 6–7
LLWLlast 4
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.8
+0.09 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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San Diego Surf
10th · 0.75 PPG
at

San Bernardino Valley College, Turf ↗ · turf far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.3 against · 0.99 expected points)

Season so farSan Diego SurfSporting California USA
Position10th3rd
Record (W-D-L)1-0-33-1-0
Points per game0.752.50
Goals for / game1.52.8
Goals against / game1.81.8
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)L W L LW D W W
Biggest win4–0 at LV Heat Surf SC3–1 at West Coast FC
Worst loss2–4 vs Legends FC—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.13+0.36
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.09-0.69

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Sporting California USA score 2.8/game — well above the league's 1.9.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at Beach Futbol Club, 0–2 vs Beach Futbol Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 26%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at San Bernardino Valley College.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    SDSC Surf sit 9th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.75.

    A point moves us above SDSC Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting California USA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf – Sporting California USA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.60 PPG
12th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 3
Win
1.20 PPG
8th▲ up 2 7th▲ up 3 10th— holds
Draw
0.80 PPG
9th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 1 12th▼ down 2
Loss
0.60 PPG
12th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
98% below the top 4
8.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 15%
  9. 9th 24%
  10. 10th 26%
  11. 11th 12%
  12. 12th 3%
  13. 13th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 20 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Beach Futbol Club 3.00 (+2.25) 2nd (2.11) 69 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
2 LAFC 2.50 (+1.75) 1st (2.21) 57 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
3 Sporting California USA 2.50 (+1.75) 4th (1.66) 57 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
4 CDA Slammers FC 2.33 (+1.58) 3rd (1.82) 53 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
5 Legends FC 1.75 (+1.00) 6th (1.55) 39 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
6 LA Breakers FC 1.67 (+0.92) 5th (1.61) 38 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
7 Rebels SC 1.25 (+0.50) 7th (1.46) 27 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
8 Pateadores Soccer Club 1.17 (+0.42) 8th (1.40) A point next game
9 SDSC Surf 0.80 (+0.05) 10th (1.19) A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link San Diego Surf to Sporting California USA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
1 even
3 favour them
+0.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–4 5–2 1–2 4–0 1–4 3–3 0–2 0–1 2–1 0–2 2–1 1–3 0–6 2–3 San Diego Surf 10th Legends FC 5th LV Heat Surf SC 11th Beach Futbol Club 1st Pateadores Soccer C… 8th Legends FC Del Mar 12th West Coast FC 13th Sporting California… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 5 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 8th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
01:15 PM
no score posted
CDA Slammers FC
4th · 4-2-0 · GD +7
Away far trip
Santiago High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.86 0.77 Upside
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Sporting California USA
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +4
Away far trip
San Bernardino Valley College · turf
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.99 0.81 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Legends FC
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.01 0.84 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
CDA Slammers FC
4th · 4-2-0 · GD +7
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–1 1.10 0.87 Upside
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.14 0.90 Upside
Sun Nov 15
02:30 PM
LAFC
2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +11
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–2 0.50 0.86 Upside
Sat Mar 13
05:15 PM
Rebels SC
7th · 1-2-1 · GD -1
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.14 0.89 Upside
Sun Mar 14
09:00 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -7
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.86 0.97 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
09:00 AM
SDSC Surf
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -2
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.27 0.99 Upside
Sat Apr 3
09:00 AM
LV Heat Surf SC
11th · 2-0-6 · GD -19
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
2–1 2.35 1.09 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
09:00 AM
Sporting California USA
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +4
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.26 1.10 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
West Coast FC
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -9
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.74 1.14 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
09:00 AM
Rebels SC
7th · 1-2-1 · GD -1
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.40 1.15 Upside
Sat Apr 24
09:00 AM
Pateadores Soccer Club
8th · 2-1-3 · GD +3
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.30 1.16 Upside
Sun Apr 25
01:00 PM
LA Breakers FC
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–1 0.90 1.15 Upside
Sun May 2
10:00 AM
LAFC
2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +11
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
16%
0–2 0.68 1.13 Upside
Sun May 9
03:00 PM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -7
Away
San Dieguito Academy
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–1 1.58 1.15 Swing game
Sat May 15
09:00 AM
SDSC Surf
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -2
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
1–1 1.55 1.17 Swing game
Sat May 22
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
8th · 2-1-3 · GD +3
Away
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.04 1.16 Upside
Sat May 29
09:00 AM
West Coast FC
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -9
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.03 1.20 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Beach Futbol Club 4400 82+6 123.00 WWWW +0.02 -0.05 96% 2.1
2 LAFC 4310 121+11 102.50 WWDW -0.50 +0.01 98% 1.6
3 Sporting California USA 4310 117+4 102.50 WWDW -0.69 +0.14 42% 5.2
4 CDA Slammers FC 6420 158+7 142.33 DWWDW -0.55 +0.17 72% 3.8
5 Legends FC 4211 1311+2 71.75 WLWD +0.01 +0.01 28% 5.8
6 LA Breakers FC 6312 137+6 101.67 WLDWL -0.35 +0.12 36% 5.4
7 Rebels SC 4121 67-1 51.25 WDLD +0.74 -0.12 15% 6.8
8 Pateadores Soccer Club 6213 1310+3 71.17 DLLWW -0.29 +0.10 9% 7.2
9 SDSC Surf 5113 911-2 40.80 LLLWD +0.23 +0.00 2% 8.9
10 San Diego Surf 4103 67-1 30.75 LLWL +0.09 +0.04 2% 8.8
11 LV Heat Surf SC 8206 726-19 60.75 LLLLL -0.05 +0.31 0% 12.6
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6114 916-7 40.67 LLWDL +0.25 +0.04 0% 10.9
13 West Coast FC 5014 817-9 10.20 LLDLL +0.22 +0.11 0% 11.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.