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Rebels SC

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU17 · 13 teams · Rebels Soccer Club (all teams)

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7th
1-2-1 record · 4 played
1.25 points per game
-1 goal diff · 6–7
WDLDlast 4
14% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.9
+0.74 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM

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Rebels SC
7th · 1.25 PPG
vs
Beach Futbol Club
1st · 3.00 PPG

Monte Vista High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.1 for, 1.7 against · 1.00 expected points)

Season so farRebels SCBeach Futbol Club
Position7th1st
Record (W-D-L)1-2-14-0-0
Points per game1.253.00
Goals for / game1.52.0
Goals against / game1.80.5
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)D L D WW W W W
Biggest win3–2 at LA Breakers FC3–1 vs Rebels SC
Worst loss1–3 at Beach Futbol Club—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.06+0.88
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.74+0.02

Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 1–3 at Beach Futbol Club (L)

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Beach Futbol Club concede only 0.5/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs LAFC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 25%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Beach Futbol Club have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Beach Futbol Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rebels SC – Beach Futbol Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.20 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 10th▼ down 3
Win
1.60 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1
Draw
1.20 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 10th▼ down 3
Loss
1.00 PPG
8th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
14% top 4
86% below the top 4
6.9 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 4%
  4. 4th 9%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 17%
  7. 7th 17%
  8. 8th 19%
  9. 9th 12%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 20 remaining known games (max 2.71 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Beach Futbol Club 3.00 (+1.75) 2nd (2.11) 67 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
2 LAFC 2.50 (+1.25) 1st (2.21) 55 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
3 Sporting California USA 2.50 (+1.25) 4th (1.66) 55 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
4 CDA Slammers FC 2.33 (+1.08) 3rd (1.82) 51 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
5 Legends FC 1.75 (+0.50) 6th (1.55) 37 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
6 LA Breakers FC 1.67 (+0.42) 5th (1.61) 36 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection

How the results connect

5 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Rebels SC to Beach Futbol Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
2 even
1 favour them
+0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 2–2 4–2 0–2 3–2 1–1 1–2 0–1 5–2 Rebels SC 7th Legends FC 5th LA Breakers FC 6th San Diego Surf 10th Pateadores Soccer C… 8th Beach Futbol Club 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 5 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 13th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:30 PM
Beach Futbol Club
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +6
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–1 1.00 1.20 Upside
Sun Oct 25
08:00 AM
CDA Slammers FC
4th · 4-2-0 · GD +7
Away far trip
Santiago High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–2 0.96 1.16 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
LAFC
2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +11
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
13%
0–2 0.57 1.08 Upside
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM
Sporting California USA
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +4
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.38 1.11 Upside
Sun Nov 8
03:15 PM
CDA Slammers FC
4th · 4-2-0 · GD +7
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.21 1.12 Upside
Sat Nov 14
03:00 PM
LV Heat Surf SC
11th · 2-0-6 · GD -19
Away far trip
Heritage Park Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.23 1.23 Swing game
Tue Nov 24
05:15 PM
SDSC Surf
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -2
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.67 1.27 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
05:15 PM
San Diego Surf
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -1
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–1 1.63 1.30 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
8th · 2-1-3 · GD +3
Away
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.15 1.29 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Sporting California USA
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +4
Away
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–2 1.10 1.28 Upside
Sat Apr 10
03:30 PM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -7
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.98 1.32 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -1
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.36 1.33 Upside
Sun Apr 18
08:30 AM
LA Breakers FC
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.25 1.32 Upside
Sat Apr 24
03:15 PM
West Coast FC
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -9
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.15 1.37 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
05:45 PM
Legends FC
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
2–2 1.46 1.37 Swing game
Sat May 1
11:00 AM
SDSC Surf
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -2
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.39 1.37 Upside
Sat May 8
03:00 PM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -7
Away far trip
San Dieguito Academy
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.71 1.39 Swing game
Sat May 15
09:00 AM
Pateadores Soccer Club
8th · 2-1-3 · GD +3
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.42 1.39 Upside
Sun May 16
12:30 PM
LV Heat Surf SC
11th · 2-0-6 · GD -19
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
2–0 2.44 1.44 Bank it
Sat May 22
TBD
West Coast FC
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -9
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.87 1.46 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Beach Futbol Club 4400 82+6 123.00 WWWW +0.02 -0.05 95% 2.2
2 LAFC 4310 121+11 102.50 WWDW -0.50 +0.01 98% 1.6
3 Sporting California USA 4310 117+4 102.50 WWDW -0.69 +0.14 42% 5.1
4 CDA Slammers FC 6420 158+7 142.33 DWWDW -0.55 +0.17 72% 3.8
5 Legends FC 4211 1311+2 71.75 WLWD +0.01 +0.01 27% 5.9
6 LA Breakers FC 6312 137+6 101.67 WLDWL -0.35 +0.12 36% 5.3
7 Rebels SC 4121 67-1 51.25 WDLD +0.74 -0.12 14% 6.9
8 Pateadores Soccer Club 6213 1310+3 71.17 DLLWW -0.29 +0.10 11% 7.2
9 SDSC Surf 5113 911-2 40.80 LLLWD +0.23 +0.00 2% 8.8
10 San Diego Surf 4103 67-1 30.75 LLWL +0.09 +0.04 3% 8.9
11 LV Heat Surf SC 8206 726-19 60.75 LLLLL -0.05 +0.31 0% 12.6
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6114 916-7 40.67 LLWDL +0.25 +0.04 0% 10.9
13 West Coast FC 5014 817-9 10.20 LLDLL +0.22 +0.11 0% 11.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.