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West Coast FC

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU17 · 13 teams · West Coast F.C. (all teams)

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13th
0-1-4 record · 5 played
0.20 points per game
-9 goal diff · 8–17
LLDLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.9
+0.22 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, TBD

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West Coast FC
13th · 0.20 PPG
at
LV Heat Surf SC
11th · 0.75 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.5 for, 1.8 against · 1.75 expected points)

Season so farWest Coast FCLV Heat Surf SC
Position13th11th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-42-0-6
Points per game0.200.75
Goals for / game1.60.9
Goals against / game3.43.3
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless13
Form (recent first)L L D L LL L L L L
Biggest win—2–1 at West Coast FC
Worst loss0–5 at LAFC0–6 vs Pateadores Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.11-1.74
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.22-0.05

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 1–2 vs LV Heat Surf SC (L)

Common opponents: CDA Slammers FC — we 4–4; they 1–3.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    LV Heat Surf SC average 0.9 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 3 of 8.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    LV Heat Surf SC concede 3.2/game; worst result 0–6 vs Pateadores Soccer Club.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 at LAFC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 52% / draw 19% / loss 29%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    LV Heat Surf SC have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff TBD at TBD.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LV Heat Surf SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West Coast FC – LV Heat Surf SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 0.67 PPG
12th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 4 12th▲ up 1
Win
0.67 PPG
12th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 4 12th▲ up 1
Draw
0.33 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 13th— holds
Loss
0.17 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 13th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 19%
  12. 12th 47%
  13. 13th 28%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.42 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Beach Futbol Club 3.00 (+2.80) 2nd (2.11) 71 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
2 LAFC 2.50 (+2.30) 1st (2.21) 59 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection
3 Sporting California USA 2.50 (+2.30) 4th (1.66) 59 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
4 CDA Slammers FC 2.33 (+2.13) 3rd (1.82) 55 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
5 Legends FC 1.75 (+1.55) 6th (1.55) 41 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
6 LA Breakers FC 1.67 (+1.47) 5th (1.61) 40 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
7 Rebels SC 1.25 (+1.05) 7th (1.46) 29 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
8 Pateadores Soccer Club 1.17 (+0.97) 8th (1.40) 28 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
9 SDSC Surf 0.80 (+0.60) 10th (1.19) 19 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
10 San Diego Surf 0.75 (+0.55) 9th (1.20) 17 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
11 LV Heat Surf SC 0.75 (+0.55) 13th (0.55) 17 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
12 Legends FC Del Mar 0.67 (+0.47) 11th (0.89) 16 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection

How the results connect

14 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link West Coast FC to LV Heat Surf SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us
1 even
3 favour them
+1.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 4–4 3–1 3–2 1–2 1–3 2–1 2–0 3–3 4–1 0–5 4–1 1–1 2–3 3–0 6–0 1–0 5–1 West Coast FC 13th CDA Slammers FC 4th Sporting California… 3rd LAFC 2nd SDSC Surf 9th Pateadores Soccer C… 8th Legends FC Del Mar 12th LA Breakers FC 6th LV Heat Surf SC 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 5 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.11 · 5th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
TBD
LV Heat Surf SC
11th · 2-0-6 · GD -19
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.75 0.46 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
10:30 AM
Beach Futbol Club
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +6
Home
Lake Forest Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–2 0.51 0.47 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM
Legends FC
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●● Very tough
13%
2–4 0.51 0.47 Upside
Sat Nov 14
TBD
CDA Slammers FC
4th · 4-2-0 · GD +7
Away
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.44 0.47 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
SDSC Surf
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -2
Home
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.07 0.53 Upside
Sat Mar 20
02:00 PM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -7
Away far trip
San Dieguito Academy
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–2 1.09 0.58 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 PM
Legends FC
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Home
Lake Forest Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
21%
2–3 0.77 0.60 Upside
Sat Apr 3
08:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +6
Away far trip
El Camino College
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–3 0.35 0.58 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD
LAFC
2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +11
Home
●●●●● Very tough
7%
0–3 0.33 0.56 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
San Diego Surf
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -1
Home
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.06 0.59 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
8th · 2-1-3 · GD +3
Away
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.58 0.59 Upside
Sat Apr 24
03:15 PM
Rebels SC
7th · 1-2-1 · GD -1
Away far trip
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.69 0.60 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -7
Home
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.41 0.64 Upside
Sun May 2
09:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.49 0.63 Upside
Sat May 8
11:00 AM
SDSC Surf
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -2
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.79 0.64 Upside
Sun May 9
02:00 PM
LA Breakers FC
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Home
Saddleback College
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.70 0.65 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
8th · 2-1-3 · GD +3
Home
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.82 0.65 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD
Rebels SC
7th · 1-2-1 · GD -1
Home
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–2 0.94 0.67 Upside
Sat May 29
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -1
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.80 0.67 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Beach Futbol Club 4400 82+6 123.00 WWWW +0.02 -0.05 96% 2.1
2 LAFC 4310 121+11 102.50 WWDW -0.50 +0.01 98% 1.6
3 Sporting California USA 4310 117+4 102.50 WWDW -0.69 +0.14 42% 5.1
4 CDA Slammers FC 6420 158+7 142.33 DWWDW -0.55 +0.17 69% 3.9
5 Legends FC 4211 1311+2 71.75 WLWD +0.01 +0.01 27% 5.9
6 LA Breakers FC 6312 137+6 101.67 WLDWL -0.35 +0.12 38% 5.3
7 Rebels SC 4121 67-1 51.25 WDLD +0.74 -0.12 15% 6.8
8 Pateadores Soccer Club 6213 1310+3 71.17 DLLWW -0.29 +0.10 11% 7.1
9 SDSC Surf 5113 911-2 40.80 LLLWD +0.23 +0.00 2% 9.0
10 San Diego Surf 4103 67-1 30.75 LLWL +0.09 +0.04 2% 8.8
11 LV Heat Surf SC 8206 726-19 60.75 LLLLL -0.05 +0.31 0% 12.6
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6114 916-7 40.67 LLWDL +0.25 +0.04 0% 10.9
13 West Coast FC 5014 817-9 10.20 LLDLL +0.22 +0.11 0% 11.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.