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LAFC

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU17 · 13 teams · LAFC So Cal (all teams)

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2nd
3-1-0 record · 4 played
2.50 points per game
+11 goal diff · 12–1
WWDWlast 4
98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.6
-0.50 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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LAFC
2nd · 2.50 PPG
at
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 0.67 PPG

Canyon Crest Academy, Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.0 against · 2.43 expected points)

Season so farLAFCLegends FC Del Mar
Position2nd12th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-01-1-4
Points per game2.500.67
Goals for / game3.01.5
Goals against / game0.32.7
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)W D W WL D W L L
Biggest win5–0 vs West Coast FC4–1 vs LV Heat Surf SC
Worst loss—1–4 at LAFC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.36-0.75
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.50+0.25

Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 4–1 vs Legends FC Del Mar (W)

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at Rebels SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 76% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:00 PM at Canyon Crest Academy.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC Del Mar game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LAFC – Legends FC Del Mar) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.60 PPG
2nd— holds 1st▲ up 1 2nd— holds
Win
2.60 PPG
2nd— holds 1st▲ up 1 2nd— holds
Draw
2.20 PPG
4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2
Loss
2.00 PPG
4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

61% finish 1st
98% top 4
2% below the top 4
1.6 average finish
  1. 1st 61%
  2. 2nd 28%
  3. 3rd 7%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 20 remaining known games (max 2.92 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Beach Futbol Club 3.00 (+0.50) 2nd (2.11) 62 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection

How the results connect

10 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link LAFC to Legends FC Del Mar through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
1 favour them
+3.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–1 5–0 1–2 1–4 3–0 1–2 1–3 3–3 0–0 3–2 3–1 2–0 2–3 2–3 3–0 1–1 4–4 LAFC 2nd West Coast FC 13th SDSC Surf 9th Rebels SC 7th LV Heat Surf SC 11th Sporting California… 3rd LA Breakers FC 6th CDA Slammers FC 4th Legends FC Del Mar 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 5 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 10th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
04:00 PM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -7
Away far trip
Canyon Crest Academy · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
2–0 2.43 2.49 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
02:00 PM
SDSC Surf
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -2
Away far trip
Westview High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.19 2.44 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Rebels SC
7th · 1-2-1 · GD -1
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–0 2.25 2.41 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +6
Away far trip
El Camino College
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.50 2.30 Upside
Sat Nov 7
05:00 PM
Pateadores Soccer Club
8th · 2-1-3 · GD +3
Away far trip
Great Park
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.97 2.26 Swing game
Mon Nov 9
07:15 PM
Legends FC
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Home
El Camino Real Charter High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.34 2.27 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
02:30 PM
San Diego Surf
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -1
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–0 2.33 2.27 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
TBD
CDA Slammers FC
4th · 4-2-0 · GD +7
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 2.01 2.25 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
8th · 2-1-3 · GD +3
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.20 2.25 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD
West Coast FC
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -9
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–0 2.56 2.27 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD
CDA Slammers FC
4th · 4-2-0 · GD +7
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–1 1.77 2.24 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Beach Futbol Club
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +6
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
1–1 1.73 2.20 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Sporting California USA
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +4
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.95 2.19 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
11:00 AM
LV Heat Surf SC
11th · 2-0-6 · GD -19
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
3–0 2.82 2.22 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
LA Breakers FC
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
1–0 2.01 2.21 Swing game
Sun May 2
10:00 AM
San Diego Surf
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -1
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–0 2.12 2.21 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD
LV Heat Surf SC
11th · 2-0-6 · GD -19
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
3–0 2.72 2.23 Bank it
Sat May 15
01:00 PM
Legends FC
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.09 2.23 Swing game
Sat May 22
TBD
Sporting California USA
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +4
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.19 2.23 Swing game
Sat Jun 5
11:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–1 1.78 2.21 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Beach Futbol Club 4400 82+6 123.00 WWWW +0.02 -0.05 95% 2.2
2 LAFC 4310 121+11 102.50 WWDW -0.50 +0.01 98% 1.6
3 Sporting California USA 4310 117+4 102.50 WWDW -0.69 +0.14 42% 5.1
4 CDA Slammers FC 6420 158+7 142.33 DWWDW -0.55 +0.17 72% 3.8
5 Legends FC 4211 1311+2 71.75 WLWD +0.01 +0.01 27% 5.9
6 LA Breakers FC 6312 137+6 101.67 WLDWL -0.35 +0.12 36% 5.3
7 Rebels SC 4121 67-1 51.25 WDLD +0.74 -0.12 14% 6.9
8 Pateadores Soccer Club 6213 1310+3 71.17 DLLWW -0.29 +0.10 11% 7.2
9 SDSC Surf 5113 911-2 40.80 LLLWD +0.23 +0.00 2% 8.8
10 San Diego Surf 4103 67-1 30.75 LLWL +0.09 +0.04 3% 8.9
11 LV Heat Surf SC 8206 726-19 60.75 LLLLL -0.05 +0.31 0% 12.6
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6114 916-7 40.67 LLWDL +0.25 +0.04 0% 10.9
13 West Coast FC 5014 817-9 10.20 LLDLL +0.22 +0.11 0% 11.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.