LV Heat Surf SC
ECNL Boys · Southwest BU17 · 13 teams · LV Heat Surf SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.5 against · 1.06 expected points)
| Season so far | LV Heat Surf SC | West Coast FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 13th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-6 | 0-1-4 |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 0.20 |
| Goals for / game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals against / game | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | L L D L L |
| Biggest win | 2–1 at West Coast FC | — |
| Worst loss | 0–6 vs Pateadores Soccer Club | 0–5 at LAFC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.74 | -1.11 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.05 | +0.22 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 2–1 at West Coast FC (W)
Common opponents: CDA Slammers FC — we 1–3; they 4–4.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
West Coast FC concede 3.4/game; worst result 0–5 at LAFC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–4 vs San Diego Surf, 0–6 vs Pateadores Soccer Club, 0–2 at Pateadores Soccer Club.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 29%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
San Diego Surf sit 10th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.75.A point moves us above San Diego Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the West Coast FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LV Heat Surf SC – West Coast FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.67 PPG |
13th▼ down 2 | 10th▲ up 1 | 13th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
9th▲ up 2 | 9th▲ up 2 | 12th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 0.78 PPG |
10th▲ up 1 | 9th▲ up 2 | 12th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.67 PPG |
13th▼ down 2 | 10th▲ up 1 | 13th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–2 loss we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th <1%
- 10th 1%
- 11th 6%
- 12th 29%
- 13th 65%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beach Futbol Club | 3.00 (+2.25) | 2nd (2.11) | 66 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection |
| 2 | LAFC | 2.50 (+1.75) | 1st (2.21) | 54 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection |
| 3 | Sporting California USA | 2.50 (+1.75) | 4th (1.66) | 54 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 4 | CDA Slammers FC | 2.33 (+1.58) | 3rd (1.82) | 50 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 5 | Legends FC | 1.75 (+1.00) | 6th (1.55) | 36 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 6 | LA Breakers FC | 1.67 (+0.92) | 5th (1.61) | 35 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 7 | Rebels SC | 1.25 (+0.50) | 7th (1.46) | 24 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 8 | Pateadores Soccer Club | 1.17 (+0.42) | 8th (1.40) | 23 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 9 | SDSC Surf | 0.80 (+0.05) | 10th (1.19) | A point next game |
| 10 | San Diego Surf | 0.75 (+0.00) | 9th (1.20) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
14 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link LV Heat Surf SC to West Coast FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.31 · 1st hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 TBD |
West Coast FC 13th · 0-1-4 · GD -9 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–2 | 1.06 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 03:00 PM |
Rebels SC 7th · 1-2-1 · GD -1 |
Home Heritage Park Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.60 | 0.77 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 09:00 AM |
Legends FC 5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.27 | 0.72 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Beach Futbol Club 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–2 | 0.32 | 0.69 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 09:00 AM |
San Diego Surf 10th · 1-0-3 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–2 | 0.50 | 0.67 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
SDSC Surf 9th · 1-1-3 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.48 | 0.66 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Sporting California USA 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.46 | 0.65 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
CDA Slammers FC 4th · 4-2-0 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.39 | 0.63 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM |
Beach Futbol Club 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
El Camino College |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.21 | 0.61 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 11:00 AM |
LAFC 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–3 | 0.12 | 0.58 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Legends FC 5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.43 | 0.57 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
LAFC 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +11 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.20 | 0.55 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Sporting California USA 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.30 | 0.54 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 12:30 PM |
Rebels SC 7th · 1-2-1 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.43 | 0.54 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
LA Breakers FC 6th · 3-1-2 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.44 | 0.53 | Upside |
| Sat May 29 TBD |
Legends FC Del Mar 12th · 1-1-4 · GD -7 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.93 | 0.55 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Beach Futbol Club | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | +0.02 | -0.05 | 96% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs SDSC Surf · Sat Oct 24 at Rebels SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC Del Mar See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | LAFC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 10 | 2.50 | WWDW | -0.50 | +0.01 | 98% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC Del Mar · Sun Oct 25 at SDSC Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Rebels SC See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Sporting California USA | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 10 | 2.50 | WWDW | -0.69 | +0.14 | 42% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Pateadores Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Rebels SC See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | CDA Slammers FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 14 | 2.33 | DWWDW | -0.55 | +0.17 | 72% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Oct 24 vs Pateadores Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Rebels SC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Legends FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 7 | 1.75 | WLWD | +0.01 | +0.01 | 28% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 21 at Pateadores Soccer Club · Sat Oct 24 vs SDSC Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs San Diego Surf See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | LA Breakers FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 | 1.67 | WLDWL | -0.35 | +0.12 | 36% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at SDSC Surf · Sun Nov 8 at San Diego Surf · Sun Nov 15 at Beach Futbol Club See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Rebels SC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 | 1.25 | WDLD | +0.74 | -0.12 | 15% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Beach Futbol Club · Sun Oct 25 at CDA Slammers FC · Sat Oct 31 at LAFC See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Pateadores Soccer Club | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 7 | 1.17 | DLLWW | -0.29 | +0.10 | 9% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 21 vs Legends FC · Sat Oct 24 at CDA Slammers FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting California USA See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | SDSC Surf | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 4 | 0.80 | LLLWD | +0.23 | +0.00 | 2% | 8.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Beach Futbol Club · Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 vs LAFC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | San Diego Surf | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +0.09 | +0.04 | 2% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at CDA Slammers FC · Sat Oct 24 at Sporting California USA · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | LV Heat Surf SC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 26 | -19 | 6 | 0.75 | LLLLL | -0.05 | +0.31 | 0% | 12.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West Coast FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Rebels SC · Sun Mar 14 at Legends FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Legends FC Del Mar | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 4 | 0.67 | LLWDL | +0.25 | +0.04 | 0% | 10.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC · Sat Oct 31 at Beach Futbol Club · Sun Nov 1 at CDA Slammers FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | West Coast FC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 1 | 0.20 | LLDLL | +0.22 | +0.11 | 0% | 11.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LV Heat Surf SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Beach Futbol Club · Sun Nov 8 at Legends FC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.