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San Diego Surf

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU14 · 13 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

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1st
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+19 goal diff · 20–1
WWWWlast 4
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.2
-1.07 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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San Diego Surf
1st · 3.00 PPG
at

San Bernardino Valley College, Grass ↗ · grass far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.7 for, 1.2 against · 2.26 expected points)

Season so farSan Diego SurfSporting California USA
Position1st5th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-02-0-1
Points per game3.002.00
Goals for / game5.02.3
Goals against / game0.31.0
Clean sheets32
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W W WW L W
Biggest win10–0 at LV Heat Surf SC4–0 vs West Coast FC
Worst loss—0–3 at West Coast FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.40+0.31
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.07-1.55

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Sporting California USA concede only 1.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 70% chance; likely score 2–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Grass field
    Venue listed as "Grass" at San Bernardino Valley College.

    If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at San Bernardino Valley College.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting California USA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf – Sporting California USA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1
Loss
2.40 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

85% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
1.2 average finish
  1. 1st 85%
  2. 2nd 10%
  3. 3rd 3%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

3 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link San Diego Surf to Sporting California USA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
0 favour them
+8.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
10–0 3–4 0–4 2–1 0–3 3–0 San Diego Surf 1st LV Heat Surf SC 11th West Coast FC 9th Legends FC Del Mar 13th Sporting California… 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 24 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.03 · 9th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
05:00 PM
no score posted
CDA Slammers FC
10th · 2-2-2 · GD +3
Away far trip
Santiago High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
2–1 2.29 2.86 Bank it
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
Sporting California USA
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Away far trip
San Bernardino Valley College · grass
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–1 2.26 2.76 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Legends FC
7th · 3-0-2 · GD +6
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.84 2.63 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
CDA Slammers FC
10th · 2-2-2 · GD +3
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–0 2.49 2.61 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +17
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.09 2.55 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
LAFC
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.77 2.47 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
10:30 AM
LA Breakers FC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +17
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.82 2.41 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
01:45 PM
Rebels SC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD -5
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–1 2.63 2.43 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
09:00 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
13th · 0-0-6 · GD -29
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
7–0 2.99 2.47 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
10:50 AM
SDSC Surf
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +9
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.99 2.44 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
09:00 AM
LV Heat Surf SC
11th · 1-0-7 · GD -31
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
7–0 2.98 2.48 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
09:00 AM
Sporting California USA
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.47 2.48 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD
West Coast FC
9th · 2-1-2 · GD -5
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–1 2.67 2.49 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
09:00 AM
Rebels SC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD -5
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–0 2.76 2.50 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
09:00 AM
Pateadores Soccer Club
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +10
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.22 2.49 Swing game
Sun May 2
10:00 AM
LAFC
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.04 2.47 Swing game
Sun May 9
10:30 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
13th · 0-0-6 · GD -29
Away
San Dieguito Academy
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
6–0 2.97 2.49 Bank it
Sat May 15
09:00 AM
SDSC Surf
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +9
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.25 2.48 Bank it
Sat May 22
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +10
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.95 2.46 Swing game
Sat May 29
09:00 AM
West Coast FC
9th · 2-1-2 · GD -5
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–0 2.80 2.47 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 4400 201+19 123.00 WWWW -1.07 +0.03 99% 1.2
2 Pateadores Soccer Club 4400 155+10 123.00 WWWW -0.81 +0.09 75% 3.4
3 LA Breakers FC 6402 236+17 122.00 WLLWW -1.31 +0.37 48% 4.5
4 SDSC Surf 5311 167+9 102.00 WWWLD +0.04 -0.06 53% 4.3
5 Sporting California USA 3201 73+4 62.00 WLW -1.55 +0.25 4% 7.3
6 LAFC 5302 164+12 91.80 LWWWL -0.41 +0.05 55% 4.3
7 Legends FC 5302 115+6 91.80 LLWWW +1.04 -0.33 65% 3.9
8 Rebels SC 4202 510-5 61.50 WLWL +0.60 +0.00 0% 8.9
9 West Coast FC 5212 813-5 71.40 WLDLW -0.05 +0.16 0% 9.5
10 CDA Slammers FC 6222 129+3 81.33 DWWDL -0.42 +0.20 1% 7.9
11 LV Heat Surf SC 8107 940-31 30.38 LWLLL +0.46 +0.18 0% 11.9
12 Beach Futbol Club 3003 111-10 00.00 LLL +1.44 -0.02 0% 11.0
13 Legends FC Del Mar 6006 130-29 00.00 LLLLL +0.31 +0.31 0% 12.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.10 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.