San Diego Surf
ECNL Boys · Southwest BU14 · 13 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
San Bernardino Valley College, Grass ↗ · grass far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.7 for, 1.2 against · 2.26 expected points)
| Season so far | San Diego Surf | Sporting California USA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-0 | 2-0-1 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 5.0 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W | W L W |
| Biggest win | 10–0 at LV Heat Surf SC | 4–0 vs West Coast FC |
| Worst loss | — | 0–3 at West Coast FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.40 | +0.31 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.07 | -1.55 |
Game plan
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Hard to break down
Sporting California USA concede only 1.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 70% chance; likely score 2–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Grass field
Venue listed as "Grass" at San Bernardino Valley College.If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at San Bernardino Valley College.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting California USA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf – Sporting California USA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.60 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.40 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 85%
- 2nd 10%
- 3rd 3%
- 4th 1%
- 5th <1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
3 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link San Diego Surf to Sporting California USA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.03 · 9th hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 3 05:00 PM no score posted |
CDA Slammers FC 10th · 2-2-2 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Santiago High School · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.29 | 2.86 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Sporting California USA 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
San Bernardino Valley College · grass |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.26 | 2.76 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
Legends FC 7th · 3-0-2 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.84 | 2.63 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM |
CDA Slammers FC 10th · 2-2-2 · GD +3 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–0 | 2.49 | 2.61 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
LA Breakers FC 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +17 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.09 | 2.55 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM |
LAFC 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.77 | 2.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 10:30 AM |
LA Breakers FC 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +17 |
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.82 | 2.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 01:45 PM |
Rebels SC 8th · 2-0-2 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–1 | 2.63 | 2.43 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 09:00 AM |
Legends FC Del Mar 13th · 0-0-6 · GD -29 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.99 | 2.47 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 10:50 AM |
SDSC Surf 4th · 3-1-1 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 2.44 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 09:00 AM |
LV Heat Surf SC 11th · 1-0-7 · GD -31 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.98 | 2.48 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 09:00 AM |
Sporting California USA 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.47 | 2.48 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
West Coast FC 9th · 2-1-2 · GD -5 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–1 | 2.67 | 2.49 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM |
Rebels SC 8th · 2-0-2 · GD -5 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–0 | 2.76 | 2.50 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM |
Pateadores Soccer Club 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +10 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–1 | 2.22 | 2.49 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 10:00 AM |
LAFC 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +12 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.04 | 2.47 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 10:30 AM |
Legends FC Del Mar 13th · 0-0-6 · GD -29 |
Away San Dieguito Academy |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
6–0 | 2.97 | 2.49 | Bank it |
| Sat May 15 09:00 AM |
SDSC Surf 4th · 3-1-1 · GD +9 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
3–1 | 2.25 | 2.48 | Bank it |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
Pateadores Soccer Club 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +10 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.95 | 2.46 | Swing game |
| Sat May 29 09:00 AM |
West Coast FC 9th · 2-1-2 · GD -5 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
4–0 | 2.80 | 2.47 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | San Diego Surf | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | +19 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -1.07 | +0.03 | 99% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at CDA Slammers FC · Sat Oct 24 at Sporting California USA · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Pateadores Soccer Club | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.81 | +0.09 | 75% | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Sporting California USA · Sat Oct 24 at CDA Slammers FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting California USA See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | LA Breakers FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 12 | 2.00 | WLLWW | -1.31 | +0.37 | 48% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at SDSC Surf · Sun Nov 8 at San Diego Surf · Sun Nov 22 at Beach Futbol Club See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | SDSC Surf | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 10 | 2.00 | WWWLD | +0.04 | -0.06 | 53% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Beach Futbol Club · Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 vs LAFC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sporting California USA | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | -1.55 | +0.25 | 4% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Pateadores Soccer Club · Sat Oct 24 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Pateadores Soccer Club See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | LAFC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 9 | 1.80 | LWWWL | -0.41 | +0.05 | 55% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC Del Mar · Sun Oct 25 at SDSC Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Beach Futbol Club See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Legends FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 9 | 1.80 | LLWWW | +1.04 | -0.33 | 65% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SDSC Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs San Diego Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs West Coast FC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Rebels SC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | +0.60 | +0.00 | 0% | 8.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Beach Futbol Club · Sun Oct 25 at CDA Slammers FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting California USA See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | West Coast FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 7 | 1.40 | WLDLW | -0.05 | +0.16 | 0% | 9.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LV Heat Surf SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Beach Futbol Club · Sun Nov 8 at Legends FC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | CDA Slammers FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 8 | 1.33 | DWWDL | -0.42 | +0.20 | 1% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Oct 24 vs Pateadores Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Rebels SC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | LV Heat Surf SC | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 40 | -31 | 3 | 0.38 | LWLLL | +0.46 | +0.18 | 0% | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West Coast FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Rebels SC · Sun Mar 14 at Legends FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Beach Futbol Club | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +1.44 | -0.02 | 0% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs SDSC Surf · Sat Oct 24 at Rebels SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC Del Mar See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Legends FC Del Mar | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 30 | -29 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.31 | +0.31 | 0% | 12.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC · Sat Oct 31 at Beach Futbol Club · Sun Nov 1 at CDA Slammers FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.10 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.