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Pateadores Soccer Club

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU14 · 13 teams · Pateadores Soccer Club (all teams)

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2nd
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+10 goal diff · 15–5
WWWWlast 4
72% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.5
-0.81 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:15 PM

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Pateadores Soccer Club
2nd · 3.00 PPG
at
CDA Slammers FC
10th · 1.33 PPG

Santiago High School, Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.6 against · 1.72 expected points)

Season so farPateadores Soccer ClubCDA Slammers FC
Position2nd10th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-02-2-2
Points per game3.001.33
Goals for / game3.82.0
Goals against / game1.31.5
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W WL D W W D
Biggest win8–2 vs LV Heat Surf SC4–0 vs LV Heat Surf SC
Worst loss—1–3 vs SDSC Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.17+0.22
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.81-0.42

Common opponents: LA Breakers FC — we 3–1; they 1–3. LV Heat Surf SC — we 2–1, 8–2; they 4–0.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 50% / draw 21% / loss 29%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:15 PM at Santiago High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    San Diego Surf sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above San Diego Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the CDA Slammers FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pateadores Soccer Club – CDA Slammers FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.40 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

5% finish 1st
72% top 4
28% below the top 4
3.5 average finish
  1. 1st 5%
  2. 2nd 28%
  3. 3rd 22%
  4. 4th 17%
  5. 5th 14%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 20 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.47) Win next game

How the results connect

18 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Pateadores Soccer Club to CDA Slammers FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us
2 even
5 favour them
+1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
8–2 0–4 2–1 3–1 3–1 3–4 1–1 0–3 1–8 3–1 2–2 2–1 0–3 2–1 2–1 Pateadores Soccer C… 2nd LV Heat Surf SC 11th LA Breakers FC 3rd Legends FC 7th West Coast FC 9th SDSC Surf 4th Legends FC Del Mar 13th CDA Slammers FC 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 24 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.09 · 7th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted
Sporting California USA
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.67 2.73 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
03:15 PM
CDA Slammers FC
10th · 2-2-2 · GD +3
Away far trip
Santiago High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.72 2.56 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Sporting California USA
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Home
Great Park
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.95 2.48 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
05:00 PM
LAFC
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Home
Great Park
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.39 2.34 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM
Beach Futbol Club
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away far trip
El Camino College · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–1 2.50 2.36 Bank it
Sat Jan 30
TBD
Legends FC
7th · 3-0-2 · GD +6
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.48 2.27 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
10:30 AM
LA Breakers FC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +17
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.12 2.17 Upside
Sat Mar 6
10:30 AM
Beach Futbol Club
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
Vanguard University · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–0 2.67 2.21 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Legends FC Del Mar
13th · 0-0-6 · GD -29
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
5–0 2.95 2.26 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Rebels SC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD -5
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.41 2.28 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
TBD
LAFC
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Away
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–2 1.10 2.20 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD
CDA Slammers FC
10th · 2-2-2 · GD +3
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.99 2.18 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
01:00 PM
SDSC Surf
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +9
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School
●●●●○ Tough
36%
2–2 1.28 2.13 Upside
Sun Apr 11
10:30 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
13th · 0-0-6 · GD -29
Away far trip
San Dieguito Academy
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
5–0 2.90 2.17 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD
West Coast FC
9th · 2-1-2 · GD -5
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.47 2.19 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +19
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.63 2.11 Upside
Sat May 15
02:45 PM
Rebels SC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD -5
Away far trip
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.17 2.11 Swing game
Sun May 16
TBD
West Coast FC
9th · 2-1-2 · GD -5
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.23 2.12 Swing game
Sat May 22
TBD
San Diego Surf
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +19
Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.87 2.06 Upside
Sun May 30
TBD
SDSC Surf
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +9
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.60 2.05 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 4400 201+19 123.00 WWWW -1.07 +0.03 100% 1.2
2 Pateadores Soccer Club 4400 155+10 123.00 WWWW -0.81 +0.09 72% 3.5
3 LA Breakers FC 6402 236+17 122.00 WLLWW -1.31 +0.37 50% 4.5
4 SDSC Surf 5311 167+9 102.00 WWWLD +0.04 -0.06 51% 4.3
5 Sporting California USA 3201 73+4 62.00 WLW -1.55 +0.25 4% 7.3
6 LAFC 5302 164+12 91.80 LWWWL -0.41 +0.05 54% 4.3
7 Legends FC 5302 115+6 91.80 LLWWW +1.04 -0.33 68% 3.8
8 Rebels SC 4202 510-5 61.50 WLWL +0.60 +0.00 0% 8.9
9 West Coast FC 5212 813-5 71.40 WLDLW -0.05 +0.16 0% 9.5
10 CDA Slammers FC 6222 129+3 81.33 DWWDL -0.42 +0.20 1% 7.9
11 LV Heat Surf SC 8107 940-31 30.38 LWLLL +0.46 +0.18 0% 11.9
12 Beach Futbol Club 3003 111-10 00.00 LLL +1.44 -0.02 0% 11.0
13 Legends FC Del Mar 6006 130-29 00.00 LLLLL +0.31 +0.31 0% 12.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.10 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.