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LV Heat Surf SC

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU14 · 13 teams · LV Heat Surf SC (all teams)

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11th
1-0-7 record · 8 played
0.38 points per game
-31 goal diff · 9–40
LWLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.9
+0.46 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, TBD

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LV Heat Surf SC
11th · 0.38 PPG
vs
West Coast FC
9th · 1.40 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.8 for, 3.2 against · 0.72 expected points)

Season so farLV Heat Surf SCWest Coast FC
Position11th9th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-72-1-2
Points per game0.381.40
Goals for / game1.11.6
Goals against / game5.02.6
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless32
Form (recent first)L L L W LW L D L W
Biggest win2–1 at Legends FC Del Mar3–0 vs Sporting California USA
Worst loss0–10 vs San Diego Surf0–5 at LAFC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.59-0.67
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.46-0.05

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 3–4 at West Coast FC (L)

Common opponents: CDA Slammers FC — we 0–4; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 at LA Breakers FC, 0–10 vs San Diego Surf, 0–4 at CDA Slammers FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 19%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the West Coast FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LV Heat Surf SC – West Coast FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.33 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 13th▼ down 2
Win
0.67 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1
Draw
0.44 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1
Loss
0.33 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 13th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th 15%
  12. 12th 79%
  13. 13th 6%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+2.62) 1st (2.47) 69 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 57 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Pateadores Soccer Club 3.00 (+2.62) 2nd (2.05) 69 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
3 LA Breakers FC 2.00 (+1.62) 6th (1.88) 45 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
4 SDSC Surf 2.00 (+1.62) 5th (1.91) 45 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
5 Sporting California USA 2.00 (+1.62) 7th (1.48) 45 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
6 LAFC 1.80 (+1.42) 4th (1.91) 41 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
7 Legends FC 1.80 (+1.42) 3rd (1.97) 41 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
8 Rebels SC 1.50 (+1.12) 9th (1.20) 33 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
9 West Coast FC 1.40 (+1.02) 10th (1.10) 31 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
10 CDA Slammers FC 1.33 (+0.95) 8th (1.39) 29 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection

How the results connect

10 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link LV Heat Surf SC to West Coast FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
9 favour them
-2.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–4 0–4 1–1 2–1 0–7 5–0 1–8 2–1 0–3 3–1 0–3 0–3 4–0 0–3 3–1 2–2 LV Heat Surf SC 11th CDA Slammers FC 10th Legends FC Del Mar 13th SDSC Surf 4th LA Breakers FC 3rd LAFC 6th Sporting California… 5th West Coast FC 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 24 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.18 · 5th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
TBD
West Coast FC
9th · 2-1-2 · GD -5
Home
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–3 0.72 0.41 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM
Rebels SC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD -5
Home
Heritage Park Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–3 0.69 0.44 Upside
Sun Mar 14
11:00 AM
Legends FC
7th · 3-0-2 · GD +6
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–4 0.10 0.41 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Beach Futbol Club
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–2 1.15 0.47 Upside
Sat Apr 3
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +19
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
0%
0–7 0.02 0.44 Upside
Sun Apr 4
11:00 AM
SDSC Surf
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +9
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–5 0.08 0.41 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Sporting California USA
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Home
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.37 0.41 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
CDA Slammers FC
10th · 2-2-2 · GD +3
Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.40 0.41 Upside
Sat Apr 24
01:00 PM
Beach Futbol Club
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away far trip
El Camino College · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.87 0.43 Upside
Sun Apr 25
04:30 PM
LAFC
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–5 0.07 0.41 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Legends FC
7th · 3-0-2 · GD +6
Home
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–4 0.18 0.40 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
LAFC
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Home
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–4 0.13 0.39 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
Sporting California USA
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Away
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.23 0.38 Upside
Sun May 16
10:45 AM
Rebels SC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD -5
Away far trip
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.47 0.38 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD
LA Breakers FC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +17
Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–5 0.12 0.37 Upside
Sat May 29
TBD
Legends FC Del Mar
13th · 0-0-6 · GD -29
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.16 0.45 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 4400 201+19 123.00 WWWW -1.07 +0.03 100% 1.2
2 Pateadores Soccer Club 4400 155+10 123.00 WWWW -0.81 +0.09 72% 3.5
3 LA Breakers FC 6402 236+17 122.00 WLLWW -1.31 +0.37 50% 4.5
4 SDSC Surf 5311 167+9 102.00 WWWLD +0.04 -0.06 51% 4.3
5 Sporting California USA 3201 73+4 62.00 WLW -1.55 +0.25 4% 7.3
6 LAFC 5302 164+12 91.80 LWWWL -0.41 +0.05 54% 4.3
7 Legends FC 5302 115+6 91.80 LLWWW +1.04 -0.33 68% 3.8
8 Rebels SC 4202 510-5 61.50 WLWL +0.60 +0.00 0% 8.9
9 West Coast FC 5212 813-5 71.40 WLDLW -0.05 +0.16 0% 9.5
10 CDA Slammers FC 6222 129+3 81.33 DWWDL -0.42 +0.20 1% 7.9
11 LV Heat Surf SC 8107 940-31 30.38 LWLLL +0.46 +0.18 0% 11.9
12 Beach Futbol Club 3003 111-10 00.00 LLL +1.44 -0.02 0% 11.0
13 Legends FC Del Mar 6006 130-29 00.00 LLLLL +0.31 +0.31 0% 12.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.10 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.