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LAFC

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU14 · 13 teams · LAFC So Cal (all teams)

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6th
3-0-2 record · 5 played
1.80 points per game
+12 goal diff · 16–4
LWWWLlast 5
56% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.3
-0.41 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:45 AM

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LAFC
6th · 1.80 PPG
at
Legends FC Del Mar
13th · 0.00 PPG

Canyon Crest Academy, Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.7 for, 0.6 against · 2.90 expected points)

Season so farLAFCLegends FC Del Mar
Position6th13th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-20-0-6
Points per game1.800.00
Goals for / game3.20.2
Goals against / game0.85.0
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless15
Form (recent first)L W W W LL L L L L
Biggest win7–0 vs Legends FC Del Mar—
Worst loss0–2 vs Legends FC0–8 at LA Breakers FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.29-3.15
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.41+0.31

Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 7–0 vs Legends FC Del Mar (W)

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Legends FC Del Mar average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 5 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Legends FC Del Mar concede 5.0/game; worst result 0–8 at LA Breakers FC.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Legends FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 96% chance; likely score 4–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Legends FC Del Mar have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:45 AM at Canyon Crest Academy.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Sporting California USA sit 5th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.80.

    A win moves us above Sporting California USA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC Del Mar game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LAFC – Legends FC Del Mar) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG
4th▲ up 2 4th▲ up 2 6th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG
4th▲ up 2 4th▲ up 2 6th— holds
Draw
1.67 PPG
7th▼ down 1 5th▲ up 1 9th▼ down 3
Loss
1.50 PPG
7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–0 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
56% top 4
44% below the top 4
4.3 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 15%
  3. 3rd 19%
  4. 4th 21%
  5. 5th 18%
  6. 6th 19%
  7. 7th 6%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+1.20) 1st (2.47) 63 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection
2 Pateadores Soccer Club 3.00 (+1.20) 2nd (2.05) 63 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
3 LA Breakers FC 2.00 (+0.20) 6th (1.88) Win next game
4 SDSC Surf 2.00 (+0.20) 5th (1.91) Win next game
5 Sporting California USA 2.00 (+0.20) 7th (1.48) Win next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link LAFC to Legends FC Del Mar through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us
0 favour them
+7.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
7–0 1–2 2–2 3–0 5–0 0–4 3–0 3–1 4–3 2–1 8–1 1–1 3–0 3–0 2–1 7–0 8–0 LAFC 6th SDSC Surf 4th West Coast FC 9th Rebels SC 8th CDA Slammers FC 10th Sporting California… 5th LV Heat Surf SC 11th LA Breakers FC 3rd Legends FC Del Mar 13th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 24 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 8th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:45 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
13th · 0-0-6 · GD -29
Away far trip
Canyon Crest Academy · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
4–0 2.90 1.98 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
05:30 PM
SDSC Surf
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +9
Away far trip
Westview High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–1 1.43 1.91 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM
Beach Futbol Club
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away far trip
El Camino College · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–0 2.54 1.98 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
05:00 PM
Pateadores Soccer Club
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +10
Away far trip
Great Park
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.40 1.92 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +19
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.03 1.83 Upside
Sat Dec 12
10:30 AM
LA Breakers FC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +17
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–2 1.27 1.78 Upside
Sat Mar 6
09:00 AM
Rebels SC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD -5
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.45 1.84 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
TBD
CDA Slammers FC
10th · 2-2-2 · GD +3
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.07 1.85 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +10
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.69 1.84 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD
West Coast FC
9th · 2-1-2 · GD -5
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–1 2.30 1.87 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD
CDA Slammers FC
10th · 2-2-2 · GD +3
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.82 1.87 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Beach Futbol Club
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
3–0 2.69 1.92 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Sporting California USA
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.78 1.91 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
04:30 PM
LV Heat Surf SC
11th · 1-0-7 · GD -31
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
5–0 2.90 1.96 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
LA Breakers FC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +17
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–1 1.56 1.94 Swing game
Sun May 2
10:00 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +19
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.78 1.89 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
LV Heat Surf SC
11th · 1-0-7 · GD -31
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
4–0 2.82 1.93 Bank it
Sat May 15
11:00 AM
Legends FC
7th · 3-0-2 · GD +6
Away far trip
Ontario Sports Empire
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.34 1.90 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD
Sporting California USA
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.04 1.91 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 4400 201+19 123.00 WWWW -1.07 +0.03 100% 1.2
2 Pateadores Soccer Club 4400 155+10 123.00 WWWW -0.81 +0.09 73% 3.5
3 LA Breakers FC 6402 236+17 122.00 WLLWW -1.31 +0.37 48% 4.5
4 SDSC Surf 5311 167+9 102.00 WWWLD +0.04 -0.06 53% 4.3
5 Sporting California USA 3201 73+4 62.00 WLW -1.55 +0.25 3% 7.3
6 LAFC 5302 164+12 91.80 LWWWL -0.41 +0.05 56% 4.3
7 Legends FC 5302 115+6 91.80 LLWWW +1.04 -0.33 65% 3.9
8 Rebels SC 4202 510-5 61.50 WLWL +0.60 +0.00 0% 8.9
9 West Coast FC 5212 813-5 71.40 WLDLW -0.05 +0.16 0% 9.5
10 CDA Slammers FC 6222 129+3 81.33 DWWDL -0.42 +0.20 1% 7.9
11 LV Heat Surf SC 8107 940-31 30.38 LWLLL +0.46 +0.18 0% 11.9
12 Beach Futbol Club 3003 111-10 00.00 LLL +1.44 -0.02 0% 11.0
13 Legends FC Del Mar 6006 130-29 00.00 LLLLL +0.31 +0.31 0% 12.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.10 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.