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West Coast FC

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU14 · 13 teams · West Coast F.C. (all teams)

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9th
2-1-2 record · 5 played
1.40 points per game
-5 goal diff · 8–13
WLDLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.4
-0.09 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, TBD

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West Coast FC
9th · 1.40 PPG
at
LV Heat Surf SC
11th · 0.38 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.3 for, 1.8 against · 2.13 expected points)

Season so farWest Coast FCLV Heat Surf SC
Position9th11th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-21-0-7
Points per game1.400.38
Goals for / game1.61.1
Goals against / game2.65.0
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless23
Form (recent first)W L D L WL L L W L
Biggest win3–0 vs Sporting California USA2–1 at Legends FC Del Mar
Worst loss0–5 at LAFC0–10 vs San Diego Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.67-2.58
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.09+0.43

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 4–3 vs LV Heat Surf SC (W)

Common opponents: CDA Slammers FC — we 1–1; they 0–4.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    LV Heat Surf SC concede 5.0/game; worst result 0–10 vs San Diego Surf.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 at Sporting California USA, 0–5 at LAFC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 66% / draw 15% / loss 19%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    LV Heat Surf SC have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff TBD at TBD.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Rebels SC sit 8th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.40.

    A point moves us above Rebels SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LV Heat Surf SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West Coast FC – LV Heat Surf SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.67 PPG
7th▲ up 2 6th▲ up 3 9th— holds
Win
1.67 PPG
7th▲ up 2 6th▲ up 3 9th— holds
Draw
1.33 PPG
10th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 1
Loss
1.17 PPG
10th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th 13%
  9. 9th 26%
  10. 10th 49%
  11. 11th 7%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+1.60) 1st (2.52) 65 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection
2 Pateadores Soccer Club 3.00 (+1.60) 2nd (2.04) 65 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
3 LA Breakers FC 2.00 (+0.60) 6th (1.87) 41 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
4 LAFC 2.00 (+0.60) 3rd (2.00) 41 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
5 SDSC Surf 2.00 (+0.60) 5th (1.91) 41 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
6 Legends FC 1.80 (+0.40) 4th (1.98) 37 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
7 Sporting California USA 1.50 (+0.10) 8th (1.37) A point next game
8 Rebels SC 1.50 (+0.10) 9th (1.22) A point next game

How the results connect

13 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link West Coast FC to LV Heat Surf SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us
2 favour them
+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–3 1–1 4–0 0–5 1–2 8–1 7–0 1–2 5–0 1–3 3–0 3–0 0–4 3–0 0–2 10–0 3–0 1–3 2–2 West Coast FC 9th CDA Slammers FC 10th LAFC 4th Sporting California… 7th SDSC Surf 5th Legends FC Del Mar 13th LA Breakers FC 3rd San Diego Surf 1st LV Heat Surf SC 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 24 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 24

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.16 · 6th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
TBD
LV Heat Surf SC
11th · 1-0-7 · GD -31
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–1 2.13 1.52 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
04:30 PM
Beach Futbol Club
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
Lake Forest Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.94 1.58 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
Legends FC
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +6
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–2 0.45 1.44 Upside
Sat Nov 14
TBD
CDA Slammers FC
10th · 2-2-2 · GD +3
Away
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.81 1.37 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
SDSC Surf
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +9
Home
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–3 0.63 1.30 Upside
Sat Mar 20
09:30 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -34
Away far trip
San Dieguito Academy
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–0 2.56 1.41 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 PM
Legends FC
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +6
Home
Lake Forest Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.63 1.35 Upside
Sat Apr 3
01:00 PM
Beach Futbol Club
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away far trip
El Camino College · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–1 1.66 1.37 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD
LAFC
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +17
Home
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.45 1.31 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
San Diego Surf
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +21
Home
●●●●● Very tough
5%
0–3 0.22 1.23 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +10
Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.41 1.18 Upside
Sat Apr 24
01:30 PM
Rebels SC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD -5
Away far trip
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–2 1.19 1.18 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Legends FC Del Mar
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -34
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
3–0 2.71 1.27 Bank it
Sun May 2
09:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +17
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.35 1.22 Upside
Sat May 8
01:00 PM
SDSC Surf
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +9
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.43 1.18 Upside
Sun May 9
08:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +17
Home
Saddleback College
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–3 0.53 1.15 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +10
Home
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–3 0.61 1.12 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD
Rebels SC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD -5
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–1 1.49 1.14 Swing game
Sat May 29
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +21
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–4 0.14 1.10 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 5500 221+21 153.00 WWWWW -0.80 +0.02 100% 1.1
2 Pateadores Soccer Club 4400 155+10 123.00 WWWW -0.81 +0.07 72% 3.6
3 LA Breakers FC 6402 236+17 122.00 WLLWW -1.36 +0.37 41% 4.7
4 LAFC 6402 214+17 122.00 WWWLW -0.97 +0.20 72% 3.6
5 SDSC Surf 5311 167+9 102.00 WWWLD +0.08 -0.08 51% 4.3
6 Legends FC 5302 115+6 91.80 LLWWW +1.09 -0.35 63% 4.0
7 Sporting California USA 4202 75+2 61.50 WLWL -0.53 +0.15 1% 7.8
8 Rebels SC 4202 510-5 61.50 WLWL +0.65 -0.03 0% 8.8
9 West Coast FC 5212 813-5 71.40 WLDLW -0.09 +0.16 0% 9.4
10 CDA Slammers FC 6222 129+3 81.33 DWWDL -0.45 +0.20 1% 7.8
11 LV Heat Surf SC 8107 940-31 30.38 LWLLL +0.43 +0.17 0% 11.9
12 Beach Futbol Club 3003 111-10 00.00 LLL +1.42 -0.03 0% 11.0
13 Legends FC Del Mar 7007 135-34 00.00 LLLLL +0.50 +0.24 0% 12.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.07 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.